2025 Belmont Stakes Preview: Early Contenders and Race Implications
The 157th running of the Belmont Stakes is set for Saturday, June 7, 2025, at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, New York. The race features a $2 million purse and is the highlight of the five-day Belmont Stakes Racing Festival from June 4 to June 8. With the stage set, attention turns to the early contenders and the implications their performances may have on the racing season.
Sovereignty
Sovereignty comes from a well-managed campaign. He won the Kentucky Derby with a strong closing run and a final time of 2:02.31. Trained by Bill Mott, he’s now 3-for-4 and skipped the Preakness to rest. His recent five-furlong workout in 1:02.54 at Saratoga shows he’s fit. He’s well-rested, experienced, and ready to tackle a slightly shorter distance than the usual Belmont trip.
A Belmont win would give him a rare Derby-Belmont double, something not seen in nearly 30 years. Without a Triple Crown on the line, this race still holds serious weight. It gives Sovereignty a chance to stay at the top of his class and enter the summer stakes season with clear momentum. Success here could shape the rest of his campaign, including the Travers and fall championship races.
Journalism
Journalism has been the most active contender this season. After a solid second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, he returned two weeks later to win the Preakness Stakes in 1:55.37. That effort showed grit and tactical speed, especially on a track that didn’t favour closers. He’s trained by Michael McCarthy and has built a 4-start record with 2 wins and 2 seconds.
Another win would give him two Triple Crown race victories, a big achievement even without the whole sweep. It would also make him the top money earner in the division and possibly shift the Eclipse Award conversation. A strong run here could fuel a season-long rivalry with Sovereignty. Their differing styles make every head-to-head matchup interesting, especially on a Saratoga surface that rewards versatility.
Baeza
Baeza is the quiet force in this year’s field. He rallied from far back to take third in the Kentucky Derby and posted a final quarter in 25 seconds, one of the best in the field. He’s trained by John Shirreffs and regularly ridden by Flavien Prat. He’s consistent and improving, with six career starts and no finishes worse than third.
This race could be his breakout. A win here would give him a top-level stakes victory and reshape his campaign plans. Even finishing second or third would keep him on the radar for summer races like the Haskell or the Travers. The shorter Belmont distance helps him stay close enough early to make his usual move in the final quarter.
Rodriguez
Rodriguez is entering with fresh legs and a different approach. He skipped the Derby and the Preakness, aiming straight for the Belmont. Trained by Bob Baffert, this colt has three wins from five starts, including a graded-stakes victory earlier in the year. He recently worked six furlongs in 1:12.80, showing stamina and readiness. With Mike Smith riding, experience won’t be an issue for this pairing.
A strong finish here would make up for missing the earlier classics. It would also put Rodriguez in the mix for major summer stakes. His style suits Saratoga’s track configuration, primarily since Belmont is run at 1 1⁄4 miles this year. He tends to stalk and strike, which fits the pace scenario expected in this race. His performance will help clarify where he stands among this year’s top three-year-olds.
Hill Road
Hill Road is still flying under the radar. With two wins from four starts, he’s showing steady improvement. He finished second in the Peter Pan Stakes, a key prep for the Belmont. That day, he stayed close to the pace and fought to the wire. Trained by Chad Brown, he worked four furlongs in 48.7 seconds recently. That time suggests he’s sharp and ready for a step up in class.
What makes Hill Road a factor here is his forward running style. He could take control early in a field where several horses prefer to come from behind. If he gets an easy lead or stalks at a modest pace, there’s a path to hitting the board. He doesn’t have the same name recognition, but these horses can cash big tickets if the favourites don’t fire.
Top Bets and Value Plays
Sovereignty looks like a solid option for winning bets. He’s the Derby winner and the 8-5 favourite in the current Belmont odds, but those odds may not return much unless paired in exotic plays. For better value, Baeza at 7-2 is a strong pick for place or show. His closing kick and steady results make him a safer bet to land in the money, even without a major stakes win yet.
For bigger payouts, exacta combinations with Sovereignty and Journalism are worth considering since both have proven form in Triple Crown races. In trifectas, adding Baeza or Rodriguez can stretch the ticket without too much risk. Rodriguez, listed at 6-1, has the right stalking style for this setup. For a bold play, Hill Road at 10-1 offers upside; his early speed and recent win could shake up the finish.
Advice to Close With
Keep an eye on track conditions, final workouts, and the post-position draw before placing any bets. These small details often tip the scales in a competitive field like this. Also, consider spreading your bets across different wager types, such as exactas or trifectas, to balance risk and reward. In a race with this much talent, a smart strategy can be just as important as picking the winner.