All Weather Lays and Plays

[Posts: 485Joined: 13 Sep 2004, 10:37]

Kempton 3.55

Priti Fabulous 11/4
Ray Of Joy 10/3
Last Sovereign 5/1
Sunshine Always 13/2
Cut And Thrust 10/1
Kipchak 10/1
Carmenero 20/1
Millfields Dreams 28/1

A couple of negatives against Last Sovereign which makes the race playable. If returning to form at a distance he likes Priti Fabulous is fair value in my book. Ray Of Joy form screams 6 furlongs, however in a classless field and with Kipchak ensuring a good pace, he may be able to ration his energy distribution effectively to pick off tiring runners in the final furlong. The opposite logic is that the form book is right and his tank empties out. A speculative punt at good odds

a. Priti Fabulous
b. Ray Of Joy
c. Kipchak
d. Cut And Thrust

A over BCD exacta (3 lines)

[Posts: 485Joined: 13 Sep 2004, 10:37]

Kempton 3.55

however in a classless field and with Kipchak ensuring a good pace,

yeah.. so much so he won the race..

[Posts: 994Joined: 09 Feb 2007, 16:29Location: Leicestershire]

Pension job again today

230W Withnail looks an interesting one here on his first start For Stef Liddiard. A winner over 6F at Dundalk before running OK over 5F at the same venue. If fit enough could pinch this. Spoof Master doesn't win many but is running reasonably consistently and can pick up the forecast spot

500W Metal Guru invariably runs well here and is a pound higher than his last winning mark. The draw is a bit of a concern but at 16/1 is a decent EW shout. Another big price runner Monsieur Reynard has yet to win on the AW but is more than capable of finishing in the runner up spot as he did against the selection in October. Almaty Express would make these all go if back to his best and earns the tricast spot

530W I'm quite sweet on the chance of Carnivore in this one if he can lay a little closer to the pace. Dean Heslop takes off a useful 5lb and at 10/1 looks an EW must. Arachnophobia won over C&D in April but has raced mainly at Kempton since. Although steadily climbing the weights the gelding is really consistent and should run well on his first visit back

545K Hawaana is a strong fancy for me in this. Ran well over C&D in December and was left with a lot to do over C&D last time when not really getting in to it. If lying a little closer tonight should win. Rapid City is a consistent sort and was placed LTO over C&D and gets the forecast vote

645K I'm going for Valentino Swing who has a couple of C&D wins to his name over the last couple of months and with his hold up style of running may not have finished winning yet. Whiskey Junction is a C&D winner who ran well after a break LTO and may give VS most to do.

745K Thunderball ran well over C&D in October before winning over the distance at Lingfield. Tried again over 10F LTO but is much better over the mile and can go in at a nice price. Vainglory has run well in some competitive races of late and rates as the biggest danger.

Good luck all

[Posts: 485Joined: 13 Sep 2004, 10:37]

Kempton 6.45
http://bit.ly/9rIiH7

Whiskey Junction @ 4/1
Todber @ 11/2
Welcome Approach @ 11/2

Kempton 7.45
http://bit.ly/a7lGRl

Vainglory @ 5/2
Jesse James @ 11/2

[Posts: 994Joined: 09 Feb 2007, 16:29Location: Leicestershire]

250S Whooshka
355S Bel Cantor Alt Onceuponatime
430S Mr Funshine
600W Stand Guard Alt Thunderstruck
730W Royal Acclamation Alt Ride A White Swan
800W Chief Exec Alt Smalljohn
830W Alf Tupper Alt Naheell

Good luck all

[Posts: 485Joined: 13 Sep 2004, 10:37]

Cracking card at Wolverhampton today!

Wolverhampton 2.15 http://bit.ly/9rYUX7
My general rule for this time of year on the All Weather is to eliminate from consideration any horse that ran in the Dubai Carnival. My personal experience so far indicates that the form from Dubal does not translate, similar to that of Cheltenham form which rarely translates into a good run at Aintree a few weeks later.

I relearned the lesson yesterday that Wolverhampton is a tight track and therefore draw berth is important. With that Mahadee has too be on the shortlist given his blistering form recently. The nagging doubt is that his recent wins were at Lingfield which is a different course configuration to the flat track of Wolverhampton. Can’t dismiss Redford who holds a group 3 entry in Ireland (turf) or Mia’s Boy who has a 126 day course absence but runs well fresh.

I’ll side with the value in a speculative punt on Souter´s Sister who looks the stranger in the field

Wolverhampton 3.25 http://bit.ly/92qPuc
The draw bias has been kind to the market leaders so there is a width of a fag paper difference between my opinion and the crowds. However with General Elliot out of the race, the pace is predicted to be slow and muddling. I smell and upset but I’ll cover myself just in case

Spinning and Black Dahlia

a. Fanunalter
b. Flipando
c. Spinning
d. Black Dahlia

exacta: AB over CD (4 lines)

Wolverhampton 4.35 http://bit.ly/cNAwQl
I think we have a vulnerable favourite in Tiddliwinks given his wide draw. However THE big problem trying to find something to beat him. If there is the slightest of market drifts pre-race on Tiddliwinks then I’ll close my eyes for a point and shoot at Dubai Dynamo and maybe Thebes