All Weather Lays and Plays

[Posts: 485Joined: 13 Sep 2004, 10:37]

[i]non vintage [/i]

My interest in Vortex was driven by ratings (top rated on mine). During analysis (and based on the Racing Posts tissue) I initially earmarked him as a vulnerable favourite. Further analysis revelled a number of runners that were outclassed and due to the pace of the race (I have not seen the replay yet so I’m guessing) I predicted that closers would hold sway in the race, which enhanced the chances of Qadar and Areyoutalkingtome in this pace scenario.

Currently I am trying to develop a process for exacta and trifecta’s betting and using the american handicapping principle of “learning something from every raceâ€ÂÂ

[Posts: 4179Joined: 10 Apr 2002, 20:03Location: essex]

thanks slippery. am also yet to watch saturday's replays, but i suspect that there was plenty of early on in the race.

[Posts: 2387Joined: 31 May 2005, 21:40]

While I am slightly disappointed at the price after his last-placed run at Lingfield on Saturday, I cannot get away from [b]Party Boss[/b] in the 17.50 1m Conditions Stakes at Wolverhampton.

Brett Doyle, hot on the heels of his four timer yesterday, braves the M1/M6 nightmare by travelling down from Southwell for just the one ride.

Party Boss's course record stands at 3112. It is clear that the race on Saturday was too short, (7f) and not run to suit; this mile plus change will suit much better and Racing at Wolver (unlike Lingers) is currently suiting the prominently ridden horse.

Clive Brittain is having winners at the course this season, (Bahar Shumaal, Fares and a top weighted nursery winner spring to mind) and his horses are in reasonable form; unlike some of the opposition, including the stable of the forecast favourite, Cimyla. (recent runs: U18864, sent off at an average price of 9/2).

Additionally, Sir Mark Prescott hasn't had a winner for three weeks, (0-6); Nick Littmoden for a month, (0-19) and Karl Burke has had but a single winner from 22 runs, (including several failed market shorteners).

On the book, Party Boss is up against it, particularly against Cimyla who has form with some top class AW horses at Listed and G3 level.

But Party Boss's course form is solid and because of the last place, and his connections, may be underbet.

I'm not happy with the price at the minute and will be waiting for the opening show. Any 10's or 12's and I am in.

I will probably cover with an Exacta including Cimyla who is something of an unknown quantity running fresh.

Good luck all.

Max

[Posts: 3865Joined: 07 Nov 2005, 12:18Location: North Yorkshire]

I'll have to take that one on Max with Violette. I think her form is understimated and the 11/2 with Corals looks pretty fair.

17:50W 1pt Violette 11/2

[Posts: 728Joined: 01 Feb 2004, 19:56Location: Cheshire]

Anyone got thoughts on the 5.50 at Wolves -

I really liked the look of Gilded Cove - from the bang in form Reg Hollinshead stable. Only concern is a serious lack of pace in the race - and I have a feeling Conjecture could get an uncontested soft lead from the 2 stall.....

Discuss..:biggrin:

[Posts: 485Joined: 13 Sep 2004, 10:37]

with the exception of this friday (i'm off to Wolverhampton :biggrin: ) I'm steering clear of any race lower than class 3 for the moment ..

Sorry cant help..

[Posts: 728Joined: 01 Feb 2004, 19:56Location: Cheshire]

5.50 Wolves

Pace Analysis

There appears to be little or early pace in this race and lots of hold-up performers, making this a tricky event from a pace point of view. The most likely early leader is Conjecture from the 2 stall. He has a few ‘made alls’ in his form history and if given a soft lead here he could be hard to peg back. His lack of course experience is a worry, although there is no real reason to suggest he wouldn’t act on the track. His best form is undoubtedly at the minimum distance and this extra furlong could find him out.

Contenders

Cape Presto: Rated in the high 80’s when with Richard Hannon as a 2-y-o, was quickly shipped out to Christine Dunnett after showing nothing in 3 runs as a 3-y-o. Has dropped down the handicap quickly and came back to form last time out off 67 when dropped down to a sprint distance for the first time since his 2-y-o days. Winning in impressive style last time by 2 ½ lengths in a class 5 event, the time of that event compares favourable with the other CD winners in the race. A negative would have to be the wide stalls position of 12, but with little pace on early, it’s possible he could get a decent position under the excellent John Egan. Being by Cape Cross he is entitled to improve as he gets older and it could just be possible he has come to himself.

Gilded Cove: Comes from the red-hot stable of Reg Hollinshead (4 winners, 1 second from last 5 runners), at home here at Wolverhampton he looks fairly treated on his course form. He can also go well fresh and looks to have ever chance here from the 1 box under good 7lb claimer R.Kennemore. Should be able to follow Conjecture round the inside and if the pace is good enough looks to have real solid claims.

Shade Cosy: Takes a slight drop in class here and if coming back to his January form would have a decent chance here – but would appear to be in the grip of the handicapper based on his most recent effort and it would take a leap of faith to back him at 6/1 here.

Conjecture: The only runner it would appear likely to try and force the pace – clearly quite low-grade and this step up to 6 furlongs not likely to suit, unless he gets a real soft lead. Has place prospects, but hard to see him holding off some of the fast finishers.

Joyeaux: Seems to reserve his best form for around here and another who likes to be held-up off a fast pace. Looks well handicapped on his course form and his recent 4th at Mussleburgh over a now inadequate 5 furlongs will have put him spot on for this return to Polytrack. Another with solid place claims.

<br>Conclusion

Cape Presto’s ability to lie handy enough to likely leader Conjecture negates his wide draw, and if returning in the same form as last time out he will take all the beating. Late finishers Gilded Cove and Joyeaux could fight out the places – but will struggle to get to Cape Presto if the early pace is modest.

Bet: 3pts Win Cape Presto<br>

[Posts: 728Joined: 01 Feb 2004, 19:56Location: Cheshire]

Everything went to plan......

Apart from Shade Cosy which lobbed up :biggrin:

[Posts: 485Joined: 13 Sep 2004, 10:37]

Off to Wolverhampton today.. here are my pre-race notes.. <br>----

1:10<br>All signs point to yet another win for the Mark Johnston trained and legitimate favourite Aureate. Snow Dancer for a place position. Poor trainer form for 2yo’s at Wolverhampton would put me off Good Effect but he is another that might sneak a place position

1:45<br>If you remove Blakeshall Rose and Reflective Glory (BHB rated 45 and 50 respectively and this is a 0-75 handicap) what remains is a contentious race. The trainer of the paper favourite Alittlebitleft has not had a winner in 10 days, which makes him slightly vulnerable. On pace, as the only horse that likes to make the running, Situla should show the others a clean pair of heels to make all from “gate to wireâ€ÂÂ

[Posts: 4179Joined: 10 Apr 2002, 20:03Location: essex]

A fairly appetizing card at [b]Wolverhampton[/b] today.

In keeping with the stated ethos of this thread, i.e. looking mostly at the Class 3 and above races, I have had a quickish perusal of the [b]4:00[/b].

To start with, [b]Cragg Lass[/b] and [b]El Manx Senorita[/b] both ran in the same heat last time, both starting at massiiiive odds and both failing to come close to getting involved. I think 'long-term prospects' is the p.c. term for this pair and they are easily passed over here. Big shock if either of them are in contention inside the final furlong.

[b]Salient[/b] - two solid enough winning performances over this trip at Lingfield, but the run last time appears to have been quite generously rated by TopSpeed and I don't (yet) believe it was as good a race as they say it was - certainly the third didn't run well enough yesterday to convince me otherwise. There were only 4 runners and Salient only just scraped home. As a likely front-runner, he could be vulnerable late on, but nevertheless holds genuinely good claims here.

[b]Victor Trumper[/b] - ran ok on his polytrack debut last time but ought to have won given the relatively slow pace having hit the front in the latter stages, and was beaten by one of Fares' stablemates (might give them a line to the form). Will probably lead or press hard from early on.

[b]Fares[/b] - decent effort last time, is very consistent with a marginally progressive profile including a best ever effort last time when winning a small-field race over C&D. This trip looks right and his stalking style may suit in a race where a couple of rivals may ensure a reasonable pace. Does have a bit to find on official ratings.

[b]Slipasearcher[/b] - not progressing and clearly flattered by Royal Ascot form. Ran yesterday off 72 running no more than respectably and is starting to appear tripless, being neither a strong stayer nor overly pacey. Is likely to race from off the pace and that might help, and has only a little to find on her best form if she turns out again.

[u]CONCLUSION[/u]<br>Whilst Salient holds solid claims, his current price (shade of odds on) seems very skinny. With a nice performance last time, [b]FARES[/b] is the selection, in the hope that a good pace up front will favour his hold-up style of racing.

[color=purple]My tenner will be...

[b]FARES - £8 win

FARES to beat SLIPASEARCHER - £2 s/f/c[/b][/color]

<br>

[Posts: 1047Joined: 05 Sep 2006, 15:47Location: South Devon]

Good result NV. The Class 2 Hcap at Lingfield tomorrow looks interesting with only 8 runners - might be worth a serious look at?

[Posts: 4179Joined: 10 Apr 2002, 20:03Location: essex]

thanks swallow, although there wasn't much speed on and the two i thought would track the pace ended up making it! still, it's the result that (mostly) counts i guess...    :)

as for tomorrow, i think there are a few races worth looking at including that one - time to start studying methinks!

[Posts: 2387Joined: 31 May 2005, 21:40]

Nice one with Fares, NV. Nicely backed, though I would fancy Salient next time the pair meet. Clive's horse looked like he tried to duck the issue. Victor Trumper needs further, imo.

And Slippery, good call on Snow Dancer. I was cheering it on for the much maligned Alan Berry yard. He was the only one who looked as if it wanted to make a race of it with Johnston's hotpot.

[Posts: 4179Joined: 10 Apr 2002, 20:03Location: essex]

slippery - hope the guinness was good and good picks in the opener!

lots of races to look at today, but to start with...

[u][b]1:30 Lingfield[/b] - 7f 2yo handicap[/u]

Nothing obvious to strike out before we start.

[b]La Marmotte[/b] - seemed to run well with a slipped saddle last time but looks very quirky and generally runs too freely which could be disastrous here over a trip which might be plenty far enough for her.

[b]Tee Off [/b]- stable's horses are mostly running ok without winning and this disappointing filly does not appear at all progressive. Her lack of a turn of foot makes her an unlikely victor for me.

[b]Miss Saafend Plaza[/b] - really ought to have won by now but ran a solid race on her polytrack debut and receives some generous treatment from the handicapper here, racing off only 72 having proved well up to competing off 80 on turf. The trip suits and she has a big chance.

[b]Stoneacre Gareth[/b] - finding form now, but appears to have been harshly treated on his handicap debut. He runs as though needing further and/or some headgear to keep him focussed and makes little appear this time round.

[b]Baylini[/b] - very cheap purchase looks pretty shrewd now, with this filly having shown good form on all 3 starts and wining a reasonably strong C&D maiden in a goodish time on her last outing. Her mark of 81 looks ok and she is likely to be bang there in the final furlong.

[b]Cesc[/b] - improved polytrack run racing closer to the pace under this jockey last time over a mile. Ought to go well but a 6lb penalty and this shorter trip might leave him vulnerable, especially with suggestions of temperament including a couple of notably weak/flat finishes and a tendency to be slowly away.

[u]Conclusion[/u]<br>I'm not as keen as most seem to be on Cesc here, especially at 6/4ish, whilst both Baylini and Miss Saafend Plaza make plenty of appeal, the latter at a nice looking price.

[color=purple][b]£10[/b] staked as follows:

[b]MISS SAAFEND PLAZA [/b]- [b]£6 win[/b]

[b]MISS SAAFEND PLAZA & BAYLINI [/b]- [b]2 x £1 r/f/c[/b], [b]2 x £1 rev exacta[/b][/color]

[Posts: 4179Joined: 10 Apr 2002, 20:03Location: essex]

[u][b]2:00 Lingfield[/b] - 10f 2yo stakes[/u]

Again, pretty hard to rule anything out straight away.

[b]Habalwatan[/b] - late pouncer which is generally an advantage here (as he showed last time) especially with an almost guaranteed trailblazer in the field. Step up in trip seems almost certain to suit.

[b]Peregrine Falcon[/b] - well bred Derby entry who could progress further but neither effort so far has resulted in a 'good' Topspeed figure and making all the running here will require a step-up in form and is hard to pull off at the best of times.

[b]Castara Bay[/b] - shapes as though this trip will suit but mixed messages from breeding and a basic lack of pace may be a bit of a handicap. Reasonable effort over a mile on poly debut and could find himself running past some tired horses at the end, if the pace is good.

[b]Mafeking[/b] - cheap Darley cast-off but ran well when wining ok Kempton maiden last time and is likely to appreciate this extra distance. Interesting, especially with low profile connections likely to lead to generous odds.

[b]Montelambert[/b] - won a poor Beverley maiden and then ran respectably in a small-field German listed race over 7f (value of form hard to determine). Pedigree says this trip should suit but yard is quiet and the different trip/surface will be unknowns. Plenty short enough having been selected by Spotlight.

[color=Blue][u]Conclusion[/u]

[b]Habalwatan[/b] makes the most appeal here for me, but there are plenty of unknowns and it doesn't appear to be a race to be too confident about. However, the front two look very short in the betting now and there are reasons for opposing both of them.

I'll be betting as follows:

[b]HABALWATAN, CASTARA BAY, MAFEKING - 6 x £1 r/f/c comb[/b][/color]