temp

[Posts: 4677Joined: 05 Dec 2008, 01:34Location: Ashford]

Having difficulty posting this on betfair, due to invalid data, so I'll dump it here in the meantime.

Wednesday 17th March 2010

1m6f Class 5 (0-75)

4.25 Southwell (Standard)


7 runners, none of whom are maidens.

Veloso, Hi Dancer, My Fried Fritz and Lava Steps are course winners. Chocolate Caramel is almost a course winner, as he was only beaten a head, latest.


MEASUREMENTS OF CLASS

Dosage Points
34 Bushy Dell
26 Lava Steps
20 Heathyards Junior
18 Chocolate Caramel
14 Hi Dancer
12 Veloso
12 My Friend Fritz

Dam's GSV [2005]
79.38 Lava Steps
68.11 Bushy Dell
67.87 Chocolate Caramel
67.58 Heathyards Junior
67.49 Veloso
66.77 Hi Dancer
59.44 My Friend Fritz

MEASUREMENTS OF STAMINA

Centre Of Distribution
0.03 Bushy Dell
0.04 Lava Steps
0.42 Veloso
0.45 Heathyards Junior
0.50 Chocolate Caramel
0.92 My Friend Fritz
1.00 Hi Dancer

Conduit Mare Profile Index
0.63 Bushy Dell
0.64 Chocolate Caramel
0.67 Veloso
0.95 Hi Dancer
1.05 My Friend Fritz
1.05 Lava Steps
1.44 Heathyards Junior

This is the main tool I shall use on the All-Weather, and we are looking for horses with a CMP Index of between 0.50 and 0.90 roughly.


RP Stamina Indices
Chocolate Caramel - Storm Creek 12.8 / Baynoun -
Veloso - Kaldounevees 11.5 / Exit To Nowhere 10.1
Lava Steps - Giant's Causeway 9.5 / Sadler's Wells 11.3
Bushy Dell - King Charlemagne 8.6 / In The Wings 11.7
Hi Dancer - Medicean 8.8 / Inchinor 8.9
Heathyards Junior - Beat All 8.9 / Mining 7.8
My Friend Fritz - Safawan 8.1 / Mazilier 8.2

FORM

Chocolate Caramel
Beaten a hd CD latest, same mark. Hasn't run since 15 Jan, so he's either had a small setback, or they decided to rest him before the start of the Turf season.

Veloso
Won last week in his first race for 16 months. AW record is 7r 4w 2p.

Hi Dancer
Won a hdle race last week.

My Friend Fritz
10yo. Only likely to win if everything else fails to fire.

Heathyards Junior
4yo. Only run 7 times, furthest was 1m3f lto, staying on. Has a half-brother who won 12 times, but furthest was 12f. Looking at pedigree, I am going to use my lack of judgment to rule this one out.

Lava Steps
4yo. Since winning his maiden, has been beaten twice in h'caps, so Official Handicapper might have him.

Bushy Dell
3lbs lower than when won in September. Disappointed latest. I wouldn't be surprised if she won, but I'm not putting money on it.


SELECTION(S)
I'd prefer not to back the favourite, but Veloso fits the CMP profile. has recent form, and is single figures in the betting market. (There doesn't seem to be too many winners of these races bigger than 8/1.) £2 win, at about 13/8. I'm not too worried about bounce - this is the first race of 198, so its not the end of the world if the horse loses.
Chocolate Caramel is an alternative selection if someone wants one.
Bushy Dell is ruled out on price.
Hi Dancer is the obvious danger, but marginally gets chucked on CMP.