Long Road To Cheltenham 09/10

[Posts: 3289Joined: 18 Sep 2006, 15:47Location: County Down]

Well last years thread wasnt too catastrophic despite the first couple of days coming up much quicker than expected and much quicker than described, but when the course was changed for day three it started to take a turn for the better. Last Years final standings were-

187pts laid out.

Celestial Halo 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 16-1 returns 4.2pts
1pt e/w 1pt win Celestial Halo @ 12-1 returns 3.4pts
Binocular 1pt e/w 1pt win@ 20-1 returns 5pts

Planet Of Sound 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 16-1 (Coral) returns 4.2 pts

Big Bucks 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 14-1 returns 33.8pts

1/2pt e/w 1pt win Zaynar @ 25-1 retruns 42pts

1pt e/w 1pt win Weapons Amnesty @ 20-1 retruns 47pts

Oh Crick 2pts win @ 20-1 retruns 44pts

Final total= 183.6 pts returned

-3.4pts loss overall

So far have had three bets in the last few days for Cheltenham so I suppose I'd best get them on here.

Cheltnham Gold Cup

Killyglen 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 40-1

Think this horse could very well be a genuine group1 horse in the making. Kauto Star has been beaten twice at Cheltenham festival and Denman hasnt been a model of consistency for some time. If Killyglen turns out to be the real deal 40-1 will suddenly be very good.

Ryanair Chase

Planet Of Sound 1pt e/w 2pt win @ 16-1

Was extremely impressed with his run at ascot behind albertas run and think this horse has a lot more to come, 16-1 looks a steal.

Royal and Sun Alliance Chase

Wierd Al 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 33-1 (Boylesports)

Liked his win the other week and think he is a gd-sft horse, like his trainer and reckon he could be much shorter cometh the hour.

[Posts: 3289Joined: 18 Sep 2006, 15:47Location: County Down]

Champion Hurdle

Celestial Halo 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 16-1

My favorite horse in this division and would love him to win. His running style always leaves him vulnerable to a late closer but at 16-1 I think he'll be involved in the finish once again, and on any surface.

Won In The Dark 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 100-1

I still firmly believe that the ground on the 1st two days of last years festival was much quicker than described, and like many others on those first 2 days I dont think he really had any chance from way off the pace. His best performance to date was IMO the 2008 Triumph behind Celestial Halo and I think that if he is ridden from off the pace on gd-sft and the pace is solid I think he could make a much better run than his 100-1 suggests, especially with several of the main contenders not being there and him having a reasonable handicap win last time out. Has to be a bet in my view.

[Posts: 2302Joined: 04 Aug 2007, 22:34]

I've been having a look at some handicaps, hope you don't mind me putting them here, Bulwark. I will be in the Carabean the whole of the festival, (not sure if thats a good or bad thing!?) so want the potential anti-post yankee's sorted now! These are my early fancies and the ones I'll be sticking to if they make it to the final declarations. Many have multiple entries so I'll be waiting for NRNB I think.

William Hill handicap Chase - At this stage The Package looks like a 'hot horse' (money with some firms for it today). At a massive price I'm thinking Kornati Kid might be worth a go though. All his wins prove this is his correct distance;- they've been trying him over further but he seems to have gone backwards in his last three runs over further. I put him in my doomed '40 to follow' list in the belief that there was an abundance of improvement in him. You're always taking a risk when backing a horse to come back to form, but look at what Phillip Hobb's did with Dream Alliance in the Welsh National by getting him to something like his old form.
So Kornati Kid worth a speculative bet at around 33's me thinks.

Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle - Sounds Of Jupiter is the one that stands out for me, though I'm not familiar with every piece of form from every horse in the race;- I just had a good feeling about this one. He's a progressive horse whose improved with every run and based on his flat form I think he'll be even better than on the soft and heavy ground we've seen him so far. Possibly (if being cunning) a good way to disguise a horses true ability by running a horse on that type of ground when you know it'll be much better on faster going. I suppose you want a high enough rating to get your horse in a race like this, but not high enough to destroy it's chances, and from memory a good rating in relation to your horses ability in this is a massive plus if you want to win the Fred Winter. This horse won't be 14/1 on the day if it runs in this, I guarantee you that!

Pertemps Handicap Hurdle - Might end up taking a chance that Palypso De Creek goes for the hurdles entry. Bascially, he has a squeak wherever he goes but I personally would fancy him to exploit his hurdle mark and thus have a better chance over hurdles than in something like the William Hill. He won his novice hurdle well enough and was then chucked in the deep end over fences, where he put up one of the novice performances of the season in chasing home Our Vic at Haydock. I'd fancy him in this if the trainer opts for it.

Kim Muir Handciap Chase While looking at the WH chase I came across one that looked interesting, but figured he's more likely to come here than that race. Ma Yahab ran a fair old race to come 6th in this a couple of years ago. Off the track since the end of 08, thus missing this meeting last year, he's put up a couple of cracking placed efforts both in testing ground since returning, which is a positive given the circumstances, and that must be taken as a sign he's back in rude health. A good price and from a stable you want to keep on your side in the type of events in Venetia Williams.

EDIT - Also like the chances of Far More Serious in this race. I really fancied him for the Sky Bet chase at Donny a few weeks ago where he was well backed all week but he didn't make the final declarations for some reason;- the meeting was abandoned anyway. He might get his ideal ground here and although 10 years of age has been lightly raced throughout his career and his last two races look very good for this. A nine length beating he gave fistral Beach and then a good weight carrying performance on ground that would have been softer that ideal make him a strong candidate here.

Byrne Group Plate A painstaking race to try and assess for me. However, in Consigliere (does have multiple entries) I have a horse who has solid form in some decent races and one which on a mark of 145 still looks a winnable one to me. A lightly raced & versatile dual performer for David Pipe, I think he'll appreciate the step up in trip and he won a nice 20k race at Newbury last November giving weight away. I'm not sure if they've been experimenting with him but the 3rd against Beshabar last time out is probably worth it's salt and this horse does have plenty of raw ability for Pipe to win a big prize with.

[Posts: 2302Joined: 04 Aug 2007, 22:34]

Vincent O Brien Handicap Hurdle

Bahrain Storm won a couple of decent hurdle races last summer in Ireland and I had him marked down as a horse that could win a big prize over hurdles. Not particularly dissapointed with his last two runs as in the first one he was giving lumps of weight away and went off at 14/1 which indicated he needed the run, and in his last race ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle where he would have been well out of his depth. He probably needs better ground based on his staying on 8th in the Cesarewitch (a very decent run) and I think we'll see a different horse at Cheltenham. Would be very interested in Get Me Out Of Here but he looks Supreme Novices bound, so it's Bahrain Storm for me at this early stage.

Jewson Handicap Chase

Door Boy looks to be a horse on the up and improving and I'm tempted to say (probably like a few here) he's been layed out for this race. Giving away four pound to a decent horse in Fiendish Flame last time (also entered here) I would expect him to turn that form around first time up in a handicap and on better terms. He was a half decent novice hurdler coming second to Diamond Harry in november 08 and I think he has as good as chance3 as any especially at the prices.

[Posts: 2302Joined: 04 Aug 2007, 22:34]

Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

Plenty to consider and everyone will (or will not) have their own fancies for the race. One who could be a bit of a dark horse running for a big stable with a low weight is For The Staff for Willie Mullins. I like the horse who beat him last time (Bailyvoile) who is also entered in this, but the combination of doubt about whether he'll get in the race and the fact For the Staff comes from a much more fashionable stable is leaning me towards FTS. Will put the last race down to the sharp drop back in trip, and before that he won a couple of novice/maiden hurdle races well at prohibitive odds, but does have the general profile of an unexposed dark horse to me. More importantly to me, he just has the one entry so no need to worry about other races for him. He's never been left handed before so make of that what you will. Will it bring improvement or will it put the mockers on him?

Edit - Decided to discount Mutual Friend in the Martin Pipe as I think he's probably got it to do off top weight and gone for Door Boy in the Jewson instead. Also added Starluck in the Champion Hurdle as the race is cutting up and he has a cracking e/w chance so my bets so far for Cheltenham are as follows (two lucky 15's and three singles NRNB)

1st Lucky 15 (e/w)
For The Staff (Coral Cup)
Kornati Kid (William Hill handicap chase) NON RUNNER
Sounds Of Jupiter (Fred Winter)
Ma Yahab (Kim Muir)

2nd lucky 15 (e/w)
Door Boy (Jewson Handicap Chase)
Bahrain Storm (Vincent O Brien handicap)
Starluck (Champion Hurdle)
Far More Serious (Kim Muir)

Door Boy (Jewson) NRNB Single
Palypso De Creek (Pertempts handicap) NRNB Single
Consigliere (Byrne Plate) NRNB Single

BEST OF LUCK.

[Posts: 2302Joined: 04 Aug 2007, 22:34]

Just to say I've finalised all my handicap fancies (apart from one-non handicap) and therefore edited my post above before I jet off to the Caribbean. No aftertimers here.

The only thing to fear is running out of beer.

[Posts: 3289Joined: 18 Sep 2006, 15:47Location: County Down]

Hope your having a good holiday Marb. Just gettin some fancies down for tomorrow as the grounds seems a bit clearer.

RSA

Diamond Harry 1pt win @ 13-2

Has obvious chances on this ground if it has dried toi good.

Knockara Beau 1pt e/w 1pt win @ 25-1 Ladbrokes

Am just a big fan of this horse and think that if it is still holding on to gd-sft on the chase track tomorrow then he has a great chance.

Coral Cup

Eleazar 1pt e/w, 1pt win @ 50-1

Right type for the race should like the ground, has been laid out for it and not 1st time he's won when appearing unfancied in the betting

Hampshire Express 1pt e/w 1pt win

Again, the right type for the race and should have ground in his favour.

Shadow Dancer 2pt win @ 14-1

Ground and trip in his favour, low weight, cant be discounted

Fred Winter

1pt e/w 1pt win Causeway King 28-1 + Fin Vin De Leu 28-1

Think both of these two are the right sorts for the race and are both well enough weighted to get competetive.