Duke of Edinburgh H/Cap - Ascot

[Posts: 728Joined: 24 Jan 2001, 21:35Location: Essex/London, sometimes Berks]

Haven't had much of a chance to study Royal Ascot this year. I guess this handicap is probably one of the more difficult races, but I have got a couple of ideas about this one.

Firstly, despite what stats people say about the draw, surely a high draw on the round course has got to be an advantage, even if it just allows a horse get into a nice position & settle? With that in mind, I'm looking at a couple drawn high.

I'd be very surprised if Shamali is not a great deal better than he's been allowed to show so far this season. That may be unfair, or he may be a W.Haggas special. Based on his two runs this year, it looks as though he's be prepped for something. I'd be happier if this was a 10f race for him, & it may be that's what they have in mind & this is not the plan...but if he gets the trip well enough, around 10/1-12/1 seems a fair price.

My other hunch, was that Australia Day may be able to last out longer than he did last time at Epsom. He's a 7yo now & not an obvious pick, but he's fairly weighted (without being well-in) & K.Fallon is riding. He's got a good record front-running at Ascot, & a nice draw that should allow him to get to the rail & lead. Chances are this will be too competitive & he'll just be setting it up for others...but there is a small chance that if he's fit enough, & doesn't get pressured into going too fast, too early, he just may be able to hold out in front for longer than many may think.

I'm sure there's loads of other dangers, that I'll discover this morning! I'm happy to have a couple of EW shots to take on Imposing & Submariner (who surely can have no chance drawn 1!) with.

[Posts: 461Joined: 01 Sep 2008, 13:20Location: Bristol]

Drill Sergeant is starting to look well-handicapped again. It would take a leap of faith to back him on current form though.

[Posts: 882Joined: 26 Nov 2009, 09:44]

Shamali n/r but would have gone mighty close

Imposing should really hose up, unless he gets a ride akin to that which Berling received

[Posts: 728Joined: 24 Jan 2001, 21:35Location: Essex/London, sometimes Berks]

Shame about Shamali. Although you can never be certain in this game, that had all the makings of a job, & 12/1 EW looked very generous. The Australia Day theory is much more of a long-shot.

Shouldn't think you will have jockey problems with Imposing. It's got a fair draw, Ryan Moore will give it a sound ride. If it's good enough, I'm sure he'll get it home.

I wouldn't be too harsh on E.Ahern over Berling. It's messed around before, & the thing's a Montjeu. Enough said as far as I'm concerned.

[Posts: 882Joined: 26 Nov 2009, 09:44]

Berling did nothing wrong, Ahern buried him, made no move at all to get out when there was chance, then tried to barge his horse out of an impossible situation when it was too late. It was absolutely awful, but it happens.

Moore shouldn't make similar mistakes and over 12f there's more time to get sorted in any case.

[Posts: 1584Joined: 09 Oct 2007, 20:57]

Shame about Shamali. Although you can never be certain in this game, that had all the makings of a job, & 12/1 EW looked very generous. The Australia Day theory is much more of a long-shot.

Shouldn't think you will have jockey problems with Imposing. It's got a fair draw, Ryan Moore will give it a sound ride. If it's good enough, I'm sure he'll get it home.

I wouldn't be too harsh on E.Ahern over Berling. It's messed around before, & the thing's a Montjeu. Enough said as far as I'm concerned.

The high draw can be beneficial if you get a good early position - something Moore is not always the best at - otherwise you may get as many problems as those drawn low. Moore managed to get London Stripe across on Thursday from a low draw and was only beaten by a potential Group horse.

[Posts: 461Joined: 01 Sep 2008, 13:20Location: Bristol]

I'm finally settled on Sweet Lightning each-way for this one.

I wouldn't fancy Sweet Lightning in a battle against one of the Mark Johnston horses, but the fast pace will play right into his hands. Hopefully Makin swoops late.

[Posts: 1584Joined: 09 Oct 2007, 20:57]

Shame about Shamali. Although you can never be certain in this game, that had all the makings of a job, & 12/1 EW looked very generous. The Australia Day theory is much more of a long-shot.

Shouldn't think you will have jockey problems with Imposing. It's got a fair draw, Ryan Moore will give it a sound ride. If it's good enough, I'm sure he'll get it home.

I wouldn't be too harsh on E.Ahern over Berling. It's messed around before, & the thing's a Montjeu. Enough said as far as I'm concerned.

The high draw can be beneficial if you get a good early position - something Moore is not always the best at - otherwise you may get as many problems as those drawn low. Moore managed to get London Stripe across on Thursday from a low draw and was only beaten by a potential Group horse.

Add to Wigmore Hall as another horse who should definitely have won this week. Unfortunately, no surprise that the jockey's concerned were Spencer and Moore.

[Posts: 882Joined: 26 Nov 2009, 09:44]

As with Berling, that was desperate stuff with Imposing.

Very good Royal Ascot, could have been brilliant!

[Posts: 728Joined: 24 Jan 2001, 21:35Location: Essex/London, sometimes Berks]

There is a definite advantage to being drawn high in these 12f handicaps (I use the word advantage rather than bias). They were dominated by high drawn horses, the first five home in the handicaps were drawn as follows:

King George Vth 18, 3, 13, 19, 20
Duke of Edinburgh 12, 15, 11, 18, 14

I'm not sure I'd be blaming Ryan Moore for Imposing not winning. His fate was decided in the first furlong of the race. Yes, if he gained a better position leaving the stalls it would have helped a lot, but once he's there, he can only sit & suffer until the race opens up. I though when it did, he made all the right moves to get the horse home.

Think sometimes we assume these horses are like cars that can just accererate & manoeuvre in an instant. Most of them can't & they also have minds of their own.