CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP

[Posts: 3Joined: 21 Sep 2009, 21:44]

A bit of a stab in the dark. But I'm sure several will put me right if I way off the mark!

What about Weird Al? Too young?

Any news on the fitness and well being of said animal?

[Posts: 103Joined: 16 Mar 2010, 11:51]

Its a real pity that Pride of Dulcote didn't get a season novice chasing. Nicholls was fairly unlucky with his novice chasers last year and he was very sweet of Pride of Dulcote before the season began. It will be interesting to see what path he goes down this season with him, I'd expect to see him over in Ireland a bit and then maybe contest the Gold Cup or the Ryanair?

[Posts: 1819Joined: 07 Jan 2010, 15:53]

There's a long, long road to be travelled and many obstacles to be overcome, not just the fences either but if only one of the following six shows up I'd feel fairly to very confident that he would be the winner,
these are
AN SIORRAC, BIG BUCKS, WEIRD AL, JONCOL, WEAPONS AMNESTY or if it's a bog, PANDORAMA

Those fairly short ....nay, far too short.... in the betting that can be discounted completely IMO are KAUTO STAR, DENMAN, IMPERIAL COMMANDER and LONG RUN

[Posts: 3701Joined: 21 Oct 2008, 00:37]

There's a long, long road to be travelled and many obstacles to be overcome, not just the fences either but if only one of the following six shows up I'd feel fairly to very confident that he would be the winner,
these are
AN SIORRAC, BIG BUCKS, WEIRD AL, JONCOL, WEAPONS AMNESTY or if it's a bog, PANDORAMA

Those fairly short ....nay, far too short.... in the betting that can be discounted completely IMO are KAUTO STAR, DENMAN, IMPERIAL COMMANDER and LONG RUN

Discount Imperial commander at your peril!

[Posts: 247Joined: 16 Apr 2010, 23:44]

Kauto Star is far too short? At 5/1?

There isn't another horse in training that could have survived the early mistakes Kauto Star made in this year's Gold Cup and still been in with a chance four-out. Having steadied himself, regained his rhythm and come ominously back on the bridle it would have been a very brave man that laid him in running.

I will concede that an 11-year-old isn't the obvious starting point for a race of this nature, but he's only raced 34 times in his career and registered the single most impressive performance by a racehorse in the last 20 years when winning the King George less than 12 months ago.

So what has he got to fear?

Long Run doesn't look like a Cheltenham horse to me, Punchestowns and Diamond Harry were massive disappointments and the likes of What A Friend, Joncol and Cooldine simply aren't good enough. Mikael D'Haguenet remains something an unknown quantity but, like those listed previously, I doubt very much whether he's within even a stone of Kauto Star's current mark.

That leaves Denman, Big Buck's and Imperial Commander. The former doesn't look up to it any more and the second-named will surely only start if Kauto Star fails to win the King George. So, by a process of elimination, we're left with the latter (who'll be a ten-year-old himself) and I'd take 5/1 about Kauto Star beating him any day of the week.

[Posts: 1397Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

If only Weapon's Amnesty was 100% he'd show these a clean pair of hooves. I still think that if Colm Murphy can restore Zaarito's confidence he'll win whatever he stands up in, ala Big Zeb. Perhaps a run in the Pierce as a Gold Cup prep?! He was up there with the best of last season's novices.

[Posts: 104Joined: 13 Feb 2010, 20:31]

Kauto is still the King, HOWEVER - does anyone else think the King George might well be his swansong?

If it is, well, let's just say that JP McManus might well be thinking about adding the Gold Cup to his already extensive collection...just a hunch.

[Posts: 1488Joined: 20 Feb 2006, 12:12Location: Bristol]

I elimated a few at quite an early stage last year in the 'Cheltenham Gold Cup 2010' thread and, whilst I got all but one wrong, that one happened to be Imperial Commander (wouldn't stay)!!

However, one look at next years market and you can eliminate a majority of the candidates. The novice staying ranks did not appear to produce an apparant contender for 2011 and the RSA winner is out for the season.

Kauto Star will still be the one they all have to beat if he retains 90% of his ability. Time catches up with everyone, but Kauto has proved on many occasion to expect the unexpected.

Many would not even entertain the thought that another horse would win four King George Chases like Dessie. Kauto went one better and won four on the bounce.

We were told that a horse couldn't regain the Cheltenham Gold Cup, only for 'L'Extraterrestrial' came along and blast that nonsense into orbit.

It's virtually inconceivable that Kauto will be at the peak of his powers at the age of eleven, but think of him as Mount Everest and the remainder as Batura Sar.

Kauto may have descended a few feet, but he's still higher than anything else.

Of course, much will depend on ground conditions come March, but if conditions were on the soft side of good, the only contenders I would give any chance to at this embryonic stage would be Imperial Commander, Denman and Joncol.

Imperial Commander boasts an outstanding record around Prestbury Park and has to be respected. Denman is arguably not as good as he once was, but if Kauto Star is Mount Everest, Denman is K2 and you can't rule him out.

You won't find a better looking animal than Joncol and Paul Nolan has handled him beautifully. This horse is being handled like he is something special and you can't blame connections for taking things slowly with him.

He has to improve, but taking into consideration his sizable frame and relatively young age, you have to give him every chance of bridging the gap.

He jumps for fun, travels strongly and one would hope that he will see out the extra distance around Cheltenham.

This is the first that I have even considered Kauto Star crossing his 'physical precipice', but if he retains the majority of his peerlees ability, he is once again a danger to all and it would be folly to discount him.

[Posts: 1819Joined: 07 Jan 2010, 15:53]

I elimated a few at quite an early stage last year in the 'Cheltenham Gold Cup 2010' thread and, whilst I got all but one wrong, that one happened to be Imperial Commander (wouldn't stay)!!

However, one look at next years market and you can eliminate a majority of the candidates. The novice staying ranks did not appear to produce an apparant contender for 2011 and the RSA winner is out for the season.

Kauto Star will still be the one they all have to beat if he retains 90% of his ability. Time catches up with everyone, but Kauto has proved on many occasion to expect the unexpected.

Many would not even entertain the thought that another horse would win four King George Chases like Dessie. Kauto went one better and won four on the bounce.

We were told that a horse couldn't regain the Cheltenham Gold Cup, only for 'L'Extraterrestrial' came along and blast that nonsense into orbit.

It's virtually inconceivable that Kauto will be at the peak of his powers at the age of eleven, but think of him as Mount Everest and the remainder as Batura Sar.

Kauto may have descended a few feet, but he's still higher than anything else.

Of course, much will depend on ground conditions come March, but if conditions were on the soft side of good, the only contenders I would give any chance to at this embryonic stage would be Imperial Commander, Denman and Joncol.

Imperial Commander boasts an outstanding record around Prestbury Park and has to be respected. Denman is arguably not as good as he once was, but if Kauto Star is Mount Everest, Denman is K2 and you can't rule him out.

You won't find a better looking animal than Joncol and Paul Nolan has handled him beautifully. This horse is being handled like he is something special and you can't blame connections for taking things slowly with him.

He has to improve, but taking into consideration his sizable frame and relatively young age, you have to give him every chance of bridging the gap.

He jumps for fun, travels strongly and one would hope that he will see out the extra distance around Cheltenham.

This is the first that I have even considered Kauto Star crossing his 'physical precipice', but if he retains the majority of his peerlees ability, he is once again a danger to all and it would be folly to discount him.

Mmmm Interesting....

I'd agree with your vauation of Joncol, cannot be left out of calculations but there are four other serious contender you've not mentioned.
An Siorrac, unbeaten and potentially the best chaser in Ireland
Weird Al, unbeaten over fences and the best UK novice of 2010.
These two both had minor setbacks last year but both are reported to back to ful fitness
Pandorama, cannot be omitted if the going was soft
Big Bucks, could upset the applecart if he goes back to chasing, there are several outstanding staying hurdlers coming through that might persuade connections that the Gold Cup is the easier option, for instance Rite Of Passage, For Bill, Quevega, Peddlers Cross to name but four

[Posts: 1396Joined: 20 Oct 2008, 05:28Location: Kildare]

Anyone know what the plans are for Mad Max? I'm tempted to have a speculative few bob on him but with Punchestowns, Long Run and Burton Port all in the same yard, will he be stepped up to three miles?

[Posts: 3701Joined: 21 Oct 2008, 00:37]

Anyone know what the plans are for Mad Max? I'm tempted to have a speculative few bob on him but with Punchestowns, Long Run and Burton Port all in the same yard, will he be stepped up to three miles?

You are a Pandorama man Imperial,any give at all and his Weapons Amnesty form jumps off the page,42"s Pandorama and 110 Mad Max are big prices! Burton Port ticks my boxes at the moment! 29"s available.

[Posts: 1396Joined: 20 Oct 2008, 05:28Location: Kildare]

I am indeed TAPK.

Noel's Cheltenham record and the prospect of quickish ground by the fourth day tempers my enthusiasm somewhat.

He won't be that price if he wins the Lexus & Hennessy

[Posts: 90Joined: 05 Jan 2010, 15:33]

If Kauto Star can regain his crown for a second time then the cheers in the stand and winners enclosure will be the loudest ever heard.

I imagine that Paul Nicholls will find a soft race for his return to racing, followed by the King George. If he has retained 90% of his ability then I can see only one danger at Kempton which is the current second favourite Long Run. If Kauto wins at Kempton then I can see his Gold Cup price falling to 3/1 or less depending on the ease of his win. If Long run wins at Kempton then the current odds of 20/1 for the Gold Cup will seem a distant memory as he will probably be trading at 5/1 or less.

These two apart I can see only four other genuine contenders at this stage........ Joncol, Burton Port, What a Friend and Imperial Commander. Joncol looks like your typical old fashioned steeplechaser and he reminds me of Jodami. I could see him improving the best part of a stone on what he has already achieved which would put him in the mix.
Burton Port is as tough as old boots and looks to have a bullet proof constitution and I don't think we saw the best of him at Cheltenham as he had a few hard races yet still ran into a place. Cheltenham was an afterthought last time and he wasn't campaigned with the festival in mind and probably ran a shade below his best.
What a Friend having already won two grade ones as a seven year old may well with normal improvement from seven to eight find himself in the ball park.
Imperial Commander as the defending champ should be capable of showing the same level of form at the age of 10, however I can see no value in backing him now as his trainer may well run him in the King George again where he is likely to get beat. If you fancy him then wait till after this race and get the inflated odds.

[Posts: 4Joined: 20 May 2010, 16:46]

Hi,
I have had a quick search but can't seem to find anything recent..
Does anyone know the latest on Neptune Collonges?

I know he's meant to be making a come back this year but is there any positive news of late on his chances?

I know there is a long way to go and a lot of questions to be answered but a look through the ante-post market and there is a few question marks hanging over a few of the main fancies. Could Neptune prove to be a somewhat forgotten horse?
If he has come back from his injury he looks a fantastic e.w. bet at the current price, especially with the boxes he ticks away from the injury issue.

[Posts: 3918Joined: 31 Aug 2007, 23:42Location: derby]

I'm sure beckster said he was back at PN's [along with Noland?]and that his stem cell treatment had been very successful. I agree that he could be a forgotten horse; seems to have been around a long time, but not many miles on the clock.