The EW Manipulation System

[Posts: 3865Joined: 07 Nov 2005, 12:18Location: North Yorkshire]

This system attempts to make money by targeting Bookmakers' weakness. This weakness is 8/9 runner fields with an odds on favourite. They are forced to offer better place terms than represents the horse's chance of placing. This does not generally make money as an each way single, so this is done by accumulating the place part of the bet and i do it in an ew Lucky 15. The type of race this system generally includes is maiden and novice races.

Ok so for today we have 6 races that are suitable, but the best 4 will be chosen. Staking should be the same everyday for the sake of simplicity i will call it a 1pt ew Lucky 15 = 30pts though i certainly don't spend 30pts a day on it! However this will make it easy to keep track of (hopefully) profit or loss. Safe place bets are preferred to risk win possibles.

Usually SP is taken as the odds on shots are supported on course but in certain cases a price is taken. An example of this today is ELHAREER. Proven on the surface, once raced, decent surface and little to find on the favourite ratings wise.

Ok so here goes:

14:20 [b]Elhareer 7/1[/b] (generally)<br>15:55 [b]Three Decades[/b]<br>17:20 really torn between In His Dreams and St Wilfred as former is bigger price than expected but St Wilfred has already shown very decent form and is bigger price<br>          [b]St Wilfred[/b]<br>17:10 non-runners may help our chances<br>          [b]Rudaki[/b]

Hoping for the best.

Happy hunting campers

[Posts: 3865Joined: 07 Nov 2005, 12:18Location: North Yorkshire]

What would have been a great bet was cocked up by the first runner Elhareer. Having correctly taken the price and watched it been supported down to 11/2 the horse was well positioned on the rail until 2f out. Howver at that point the horse went backwards and to me eye did not see out the trip at all.

Three Decades was 3rd @ 16/1<br>Rudaki was 2nd @ 8/1 (which was fortunate given that there were only 7 runners as there were about 5NRs.<br>St Wilfred W @ 7/1

1pt ew L15

Unp @ 7/1<br>Pla   @ 16/1<br>Pla   @ 8/1<br>Won @ 7/1

stake 30pts<br>return (triple odds for one winner) 91.72pts<br>[b]profit 61.72pts[/b]

A very pleasing start but definitely an opportunity lost with the first one though perhaps the horse wasn't quite right.

[Posts: 3865Joined: 07 Nov 2005, 12:18Location: North Yorkshire]

Difficult to find races to qualify for the system with the racing that's on today. The first two qualify but the last selection is based on the record of topweights in nurserys and the fact it produced a career best last time over same distance and with same ground.

1pt ew Patent

4:55N Cool CUstomer<br>3:10N Topatoo<br>2:35N Smokey Oakey

[Posts: 2638Joined: 25 Sep 2003, 17:11]

Good start FSL.

I like the Lucky 15. You have a chance of catching a fair sized pay-out, even with all four placed.

Going ew when the favourite is odds-on is also a sound principle. The bookmaker's don't like it and I suspect you would have difficulty getting bets on for big stakes.

I'm watching with interest. Hope you keep it going for a few weeks, at least. Best of luck.

[Posts: 3865Joined: 07 Nov 2005, 12:18Location: North Yorkshire]

[quote]Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 10:55 am on Oct. 12, 2006[br]Difficult to find races to qualify for the system with the racing that's on today. The first two qualify but the last selection is based on the record of topweights in nurserys and the fact it produced a career best last time over same distance and with same ground.

1pt ew Patent

4:55N Cool Customer<br>3:10N Topatoo<br>2:35N Smokey Oakey<br>[/quote]

A little disappointing today though its my own fault as there were only two qualifying races. Smokey Oakey found nothing off the bridle while Topatoo didn't make much headway on the bridle 2f out as she usually does.

Unp @ 15/2<br>Unp @ 8/1<br>Pla @ 14/1

Stake 14pts<br>Return 4.5pts<br>Loss 9.5pts<br>[b]Overall Profit 52.22pts[b]

[Posts: 3865Joined: 07 Nov 2005, 12:18Location: North Yorkshire]

Only two qualifying races today (1:30N + 1:45W) so no bet today.

[Posts: 8481Joined: 10 Feb 2003, 15:43Location: Scotland]

Interesting stuff FSL - I'll be keeping an eye to see how you go.

[Posts: 3865Joined: 07 Nov 2005, 12:18Location: North Yorkshire]

Plenty of racing but only 3 races that qualify for the system

1pt ew patent

4:20K Katies Tutor<br>4:45N English Ballet<br>7:00W Fastrac Boy 6/1

Difficult to predict how the markets will progress but the last races is so poor that Fastrac Boy could be very well supported on course.

[Posts: 3865Joined: 07 Nov 2005, 12:18Location: North Yorkshire]

[quote]Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 12:24 pm on Oct. 14, 2006[br]Plenty of racing but only 3 races that qualify for the system

1pt ew patent

4:20K Katies Tutor<br>4:45N English Ballet<br>7:00W Fastrac Boy 6/1

Difficult to predict how the markets will progress but the last races is so poor that Fastrac Boy could be very well supported on course.[/quote]

A potentially lucrative day's racing spoilt by some bad judgment on my part. I never really fancied English Ballet, but lacked the bottle to put Puggy into the system and backed that as an e/w single instead of incorporating it into the system. I did use to get a full house of places with the system but I guess its the kiss of death posting up the selections as I lose my boldness. The other major gaff on my part was taking the 6/1 about Fastrac Boy. (11/2 in my case for the triple odds with a local bookie), On form I thought it should have been favourite so was pleased with 6/1. However having seen it drift I will now introduce a policy of SP for all selections though it rather leaves us at the mercy of the big bookies.

Result

W @ 8/1<br>Unp <br>W @ 6/1 (sp 9/1)

Stake 14pts<br>Return 89.5pts<br>Profit 75.5pts<br>[b]Overall Profit 127.7pts[b]

[Posts: 2638Joined: 25 Sep 2003, 17:11]

A good day, FSL.

A policy of SP is fair enough for posting up selections because everyone could get on at that price. However, trying to beat SP over a sustained period isn't easy and I would suggest looking for value prices in your real bets. If(as you probably do) you take a little time to assess probable odds, consult oddschecker etc, you will gain those points here and there which can make the difference between success and failure.

[Posts: 3865Joined: 07 Nov 2005, 12:18Location: North Yorkshire]

Thanks Artemis. Yes in bets other than this system I almost always take the price. I use easyodds as you can get Sportingodds and Betoddoreven when they decide to push a price out though only £40 with BorE.

However this system tends to work better at SP as several favourites are well supported which causes major drifts as seen yesterday.

[Posts: 3865Joined: 07 Nov 2005, 12:18Location: North Yorkshire]

A 1pt ew L15 for todays racing. 3 of them are tight in the betting so I'm hoping at least one will win to activate the win part.

4:10P Ballykelly<br>3:30W Kingsholm<br>2:30W So Shy<br>3:50P Sweet Lily (should enjoy ground on breeding)<br>

[Posts: 8481Joined: 10 Feb 2003, 15:43Location: Scotland]

Quote - [i]" never really fancied English Ballet, but lacked the bottle to put Puggy into the system and backed that as an e/w single instead of incorporating it into the system."[/i]

I'm confused. Don't they either qualify for the system or not?

Good start so far though FSL.

[Posts: 3865Joined: 07 Nov 2005, 12:18Location: North Yorkshire]

English Ballet qualified for the system Puggy didn't. However my racing non-systems brain fancied the latter over the former. However I decided to stick to the rules of the system.

[Posts: 3865Joined: 07 Nov 2005, 12:18Location: North Yorkshire]

[quote]Quote: from FlatSeasonLover on 12:57 pm on Oct. 16, 2006[br]A 1pt ew L15 for todays racing. 3 of them are tight in the betting so I'm hoping at least one will win to activate the win part.

4:10P Ballykelly<br>3:30W Kingsholm<br>2:30W So Shy<br>3:50P Sweet Lily (should enjoy ground on breeding)

[/quote]

A win and a place, Sweet Lily the one that saved me. Guess it did enjoy the ground!

Unp<br>Pla @ 5/1<br>Unp<br>Won @ 4/1

Stake 30pts<br>Return 21.1pts<br>Loss 8.9pts<br>Overall Profit 118.8pts