Supreme novices 2012

[Posts: 277Joined: 18 Sep 2011, 17:34]

I think Steps To Freedom logically looks like a serious candidate, but like nearly all of the major candidates, i have several concerns.

The long lay-off isn't a positive. Trends shouldn't be used as the sole reasoning for a decision, however they do need to be applied within their limitations.

His Aintree bumper win was very good (Im a big proponent of Montbazon EW at the prices originally available), but his Hurdles form just doesn't ready very well. Beating Sailor's Worn whilst being asked a relatively serious question isn't particular viable top class form. His Cheltenham win has worked out really poorly. Ericht has been slammed by several times since. Prospect Wells won a novice at Newbury beating All the aces by a few lengths. All the Aces has subsequently been slammed by Montbazon/Colour Squadron by a similar distance as Ericht was by them. Prospect Wells then finished 4th in a handicap hurdle (and though various form lines ties in quite closely with Sailors Warn IMO) before having obvious excuses in the Tolworth. Steps To Freedonm's hurdle form has it's limitations.

So he clearly travels very well and i know they think he wasn't at his best at Cheltenham last time. His bumper form is also excellent. I think he'll likely travel very well down the hill. However, there are just too many concerns for me to back him. His Aintree Bumper win was run at a crawl, and over Hurdles, i've yet to see him find much when put under pressure.

He's an excellent in running betting opportunity.

The three i like at bigger prices are Montbazon, Colour Squadron and Tetlami. I do understand that they may not be good enough to win, but i think their form is very solid and certainly stronger IMO than many of the other protagonists. Therefore at the prices i much prefer them to the likes of Darlan, Cinders and Ashes etc.

Hopefully i can make it 3 Supreme winners in a row!

[Posts: 1962Joined: 07 Jan 2010, 15:53]

Galileo's Choice has easily the best flat form and can jump hurdles fluently, Robbie MacNamara is a top flight jockey and he's trained by one of the best trainers on the planet.

What's not to like?

OK Weld's record at The Festival is far from inspiring but neither is Willie Mullins in Festival Novice Hurdles, 3 winners this Century from God only knows how many runners, nobody doubts his ability as a NH trainer

[Posts: 277Joined: 18 Sep 2011, 17:34]

Galileo's Choice has easily the best flat form and can jump hurdles fluently, Robbie MacNamara is a top flight jockey and he's trained by one of the best trainers on the planet.

What's not to like?

OK Weld's record at The Festival is far from inspiring but neither is Willie Mullins in Festival Novice Hurdles, 3 winners this Century from God only knows how many runners, nobody doubts his ability as a NH trainer

Flat form isn't really a required commodity for this race. Many of these didn't run over the flat either, so it's relevance has limitations. It's like when people used the argument that Peddler's Cross was the most likely Arkle winner because he was the best hurdler on ratings, forgetting that the majority hadn't been given the opportunity to post such a rating given they didn't run in open company over Hurdles. Or that Al Ferof has the best form on offer this year ; well yes, but he's also the only one to have run in open company, so where is the significance? Even if your trend had much merit (which it doesn't), you'd then have to understand it's limitations.

Robbie MacNamara is a good jockey, but nearly every single leading contender for this race have as good or better jockeys. I fail to see your point at all, as usual.

Dermot Weld is a very good trainer, but again, all the other contenders are trained by excellent trainers. You keep repeating this and it doesn't really have any validity. Unless you are implying Weld is a better national hunt trainer than Mullins, Henderson, King, Harrington etc etc? You'd have a pretty difficult time proving that.

Im not structuring my entire argument on the principle of a trainers ability, because its pretty apparently the trainers involved here are all competent. So what Mullins has done doesn't really matter, because im not structuring my argument on it.

[Posts: 694Joined: 24 Apr 2008, 02:19Location: durham]

strange argument. surely flat form has some relevance, as showing ability on the flat shows that you have more class and speed than the vast majority of national hunt horses.

as for the arkle, stats show that the best hurdlers tend to dominate that race. so using that logic it wasn't very surprising that peddlers cross was a strong favourite for a while (it just so happens that the race looks to have a superstar in sprinter sacre.)

[Posts: 277Joined: 18 Sep 2011, 17:34]

strange argument. surely flat form has some relevance, as showing ability on the flat shows that you have more class and speed than the vast majority of national hunt horses.

as for the arkle, stats show that the best hurdlers tend to dominate that race. so using that logic it wasn't very surprising that peddlers cross was a strong favourite for a while (it just so happens that the race looks to have a superstar in sprinter sacre.)

Since 2000, 3 winners of the race had raced on the Flat. That is 3/11. So being the best flat horse in the race isn't important. I don't know what the stats/trends are for where the Best rated Flat horse finished per year.

So no, flat form has not had significance in regards to this race and cannot and should not be considered a "Major" plus.

You completely missed my point in the 2nd paragraph. The trend itself can be misleading, given many participants in the Arkle go straight from Novice Hurdle company to Novice Chase company. As such, they are not given the opportunity to post a rating in open company. This makes the stat have its limitations IMO. Peddler's Cross was first allowed to post such a rating because he did race in Open company, and he also had an extra year of development to aid that rating. If Peddler's Cross had gone fencing straight after his Novice season, then no such rating would exist for him.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

Yup, only 2 of the last 10 runner-ups ran on the flat as well.

[Posts: 694Joined: 24 Apr 2008, 02:19Location: durham]

maybe, but very few horses who go novice chasing and are considered arkle contenders, are anywhere near good enough to finish 2nd in a champion hurdle, even if they get the "opportunity"

[Posts: 277Joined: 18 Sep 2011, 17:34]

maybe, but very few horses who go novice chasing and are considered arkle contenders, are anywhere near good enough to finish 2nd in a champion hurdle, even if they get the "opportunity"

You're trying to apply a specific example to a general argument on a limitation of a trend. It doesn't change the limitations.

The opportunity wasn't given, thus we can never know. If Peddler's Cross had taken Sprinter Sacre's route, we'd have never known his true hurdling ability. Thus, your example wouldn't exist. Hence, the best hurdler = best chase argument will always be am argument that has its limitations and isn't IMO as reliable as other trends.

I notice Trifolium has come in for some support. Can't say i know too much about the horse, but looking at it's form, getting easily beat by So Young seems a little meh surely? So Young is a very nice horse, but you'd hope a Supreme winner would be able to compete with So Young at 2 Miles?

Unlike the Neptune/Bartlette (Depending on where Boston Bob goes), this is easily the most competitive and interesting Novice race this year. My feeling is whilst it lacks an obvious star now, this race will prove to be a pretty strong renewal.

[Posts: 694Joined: 24 Apr 2008, 02:19Location: durham]

well the opportunity was given to menorah, and he wasn't good enough to finish 2nd to hurricane fly...

[Posts: 1962Joined: 07 Jan 2010, 15:53]

strange argument. surely flat form has some relevance, as showing ability on the flat shows that you have more class and speed than the vast majority of national hunt horses.

as for the arkle, stats show that the best hurdlers tend to dominate that race. so using that logic it wasn't very surprising that peddlers cross was a strong favourite for a while (it just so happens that the race looks to have a superstar in sprinter sacre.)

Since 2000, 3 winners of the race had raced on the Flat. That is 3/11. So being the best flat horse in the race isn't important. I don't know what the stats/trends are for where the Best rated Flat horse finished per year.

So no, flat form has not had significance in regards to this race and cannot and should not be considered a "Major" plus.


So where does that leave Steps For Freedom by your own thinking? Not only has he ran 4 times on the flat but his record has been pretty average in those 4 runs.
Not that I am I suggesting that Steps To Freedom isn't a major player but I doubt if beating Prospect Wells in a photo is form to win a Neptune

Look, I'm no stats man, My point re Willie Mullins is that even a NH trainer of his ability can have a poor record in certain meetings/races Nobody would suggest that this poor record affects the chances of Boston Bob (for example)

[Posts: 694Joined: 24 Apr 2008, 02:19Location: durham]

J17star
Thu Mar 08, 2012 4:07 pm

elgransenor1 wrote:maybe, but very few horses who go novice chasing and are considered arkle contenders, are anywhere near good enough to finish 2nd in a champion hurdle, even if they get the "opportunity"



You're trying to apply a specific example to a general argument on a limitation of a trend. It doesn't change the limitations. (why not?)

The opportunity wasn't given, thus we can never know. If Peddler's Cross had taken Sprinter Sacre's route, we'd have never known his true hurdling ability. Thus, your example wouldn't exist. (yes but he didn't, and it does) Hence, the best hurdler = best chase argument will always be am argument that has its limitations and isn't IMO as reliable as other trends. (recent history shows us that the best hurdlers tend to dominate the arkle. that was the only point I was trying to make. making peddlers cross favourite on the fact that he finished 2nd in a champion hurdle is hardly unusual. I can't think of many horses who finished so close up in a champion hurdle even going novice chasing.)

[Posts: 277Joined: 18 Sep 2011, 17:34]

well the opportunity was given to menorah, and he wasn't good enough to finish 2nd to hurricane fly...

And? Are you deliberately being asinine? I've stated that the trend has some limitations and given those reasons. The trend doesn't pertain to Menorah, because he was given the opportunity. In no way were any of my comments implying who i think the likely winner is. Rather i was just highlighting how that trend can be be misleading given the different routes taken.

What Menorah did or didn't do thus has no direct relevance. I also don't really understand how you've managed to bring Menorah up, given that he is a horse who was given the opportunity. Are you implying i think Menorah is the likely winner of the Arkle (I don't)?

[Posts: 277Joined: 18 Sep 2011, 17:34]

So where does that leave Steps For Freedom by your own thinking? Not only has he ran 4 times on the flat but his record has been pretty average in those 4 runs.
Not that I am I suggesting that Steps To Freedom isn't a major player but I doubt if beating Prospect Wells in a photo is form to win a Neptune

You must be very selective with what you read. I have already given an opinion on Steps To Freedom above.

I didn't say flat form meant you can't win the Supreme. I said that flat form (and high class flat form in this case) isn't required to win the Supreme, and that historically, the majority of winners never raced on the Flat. It doesn't mean Flat raced horses can't win, of course they can, rather it means that flat race history cannot be construed as a major positive because they "must have more speed". You implied this ; which of course is wrong.

Look, I'm no stats man,

Agreed.

My point re Willie Mullins is that even a NH trainer of his ability can have a poor record in certain meetings/races Nobody would suggest that this poor record affects the chances of Boston Bob (for example)

Mullins has a better record than Weld. I however like Boston Bob for which ever race based on the horses attributes and known hurdles form. Not because he is Mullins trained. Unlike you, i don't habour illogical favouritism based on a certain trainer. I don't fancy Galileo's Choice at the prices for multiple reasons, of which being trained by Dermot Weld isn't the primary reason. Even though he is a "Proper" trainer yes?