Grand National 2012

[Posts: 521Joined: 05 May 2009, 01:33]

Really happy with Black Apalachi's run today. Stayed on very impressively from the rear, showing that the further they go the better he gets. Still has plenty of spirit despite his age and regardless of what the trainer may think; 11-3 is a very nice weight for a horse who after today's performance should be carrying a lot more. Got 50's on him. He's now down to 33's, so i'm happy with that.

[Posts: 937Joined: 28 Feb 2011, 13:01]

From my blog: http://wp.me/p1o7dN-FQ

I'm cautiously happy (as with all ante-post bets; they still need to get there) after the easy victory of Prince De Beauchene at Fairyhouse today, having tipped him at 25/1 for the National. He's now as low as 7/1. Carrying just 10st 6lbs and still improving, given luck, he will have a strong chance.

My other fancy, and one I think will shorten from his current price of 20/1 (with Ladbrokes and Stan James) is West End Rocker. Alan King's horse has several things going for him as a potential national winner: the primary one is his apparent love of the course. He jumped round in the Becher Chase as though enjoying every minute, a huge advantage. Not many horses love The National fences but those who do tend to run well again and again there.

He first tried these fences last year in the National where he was unluckily brought down at Becher's.

09Apr11 Aintree ( 36 Gd )

I was jumping like a buck and thought I was in for some ride but then got brought down - Robert Thornton

Back for Becher Chase in November, Wayne Hutchinson got him into a beautiful relaxed rhythm - probably more important at Aintree than any other track - and he won by 22 lengths. Hutchinson said:

03Dec11 Aintree ( 26 Hy ,RPR155 )

I thoroughly enjoyed that, what a ride he was. The key to him is he has to find his gear, he jumps from fence to fence and he wants these big, galloping tracks. I am sure he will be back for the Grand National. - Wayne Hutchinson

Hutchinson has won on all three completed rides on West End Rocker (pulled up in the other one) and, for a long time was a most under-rated jockey. His talents have been revealed in the past few months when he took over as first jockey at Alan King's temporarily (R Thornton was out injured). He's already been confirmed to ride the horse at Aintree and that's another significant plus as he will once again try to get the horse switched off and into a rhythm.

Although the Becher victory was on heavy ground, he has no going preferences, another positive in ante-post betting. Over the 3m 5f Becher trip he was staying on strongly (he'd previously won on heavy over the same trip at Warwick). Stamina won't be an issue and he has also won over 3 miles so he's not just a plodder.

West End Rocker has just 10st 12lbs and, with the 25s PDB long gone, is now the value bet.

Good luck

Joe

[Posts: 1043Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

PDB as low as 7s now

Quite frankly a ridiculous price and i'm tempted to lay it all the way til April. Just not bred to win this race.

[Posts: 132Joined: 23 Dec 2011, 13:21Location: Hamilton]

Peter H wrote....

Really happy with Black Apalachi's run today. Stayed on very impressively from the rear, showing that the further they go the better he gets. Still has plenty of spirit despite his age and regardless of what the trainer may think; 11-3 is a very nice weight for a horse who after today's performance should be carrying a lot more. Got 50's on him. He's now down to 33's, so i'm happy with that.

I'd love to see him do well in it Peter, I had him in 2009 when I felt hard done by when he unseated, traveling really well, and 2010 when I thought with a couple to go he would win it.

I watched the re-run of the Fairyhouse race on ATT, and he stayed on well against PDB, at level weights. He will be giving him 11lbs in the National and that takes a bit of turning around on form, although I accept this was his first race back after an absence of nearly 2 years. Certainly an excellent prep race for the National and we know he takes to Aintree very well. Although PDB did nothing wrong winning the John Smith's there last year.

My main concern is his age, I think Black Apalachi is a cracking National horse, and I think he's a little unlucky he hasn't won it, but I have reservations about him doing it at 13. I'm not saying he won't, he looked well in his prep race, but you have to go back to 1923 to find the last winner of the race at 13years old (Sergeant Murphy)

I'm going give him a miss this year, but I do hope for your sake that I am wrong. Best of luck

Incidentally, there is still plenty of 50-1 about.

[Posts: 1074Joined: 25 Nov 2009, 12:56Location: Wrexham]

Agreed,7/1 is crazy, especially with a few months still to go. Tempted to lay off now against my 25/1 bet a few weeks ago. Is the Bobbyjo a good precursor for the National? TMC failed last year...

Re. WER - will he be as effective on better ground? All his form is on soft. Does jump well though.

Cappa Bleu looks a good bet each way. Don't think he's quite good to enough to win, but will stay. Same can be said of SOP. Williams has a very strong hand this year.

I think Niche Market will run a big race. National experience a big plus, likes good ground, stays and jumps well. Will be interesting to see who gets the ride, Skelton perhaps? 33/1 is very good value IMO.

[Posts: 1043Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

Seabass prices halves after winning a 2 mile chase.



You have to laugh.

[Posts: 132Joined: 23 Dec 2011, 13:21Location: Hamilton]

I know what you mean Mark, on the face of it winning a 2 miler doesn't point to a national type. Only think i would say in his favour is that he has run 4 times over 3m, winning twice and 3rd once.

Of the previous 6 races he has run before this one, he won them all, and none of those were below 2m4f.

I thought at the end of the race that his chance had gone, but he rallied so well to get up I admit I was impressed. He obviously has a will about him, stamina enough to win over 3m, but it seems also enough speed to win over 2m.

If Ted Walsh, who knows a thing or two about National types, keeps him in the race (nice weight of 10st 12lbs) I admit I would be a bit interested in him.

He has been cut to 16s with some bookies as you say (in fact 14s with a couple) but plenty of 20-1 is still available.

Worth a punt?

[Posts: 2267Joined: 08 Sep 2005, 16:22]

Really happy with Black Apalachi's run today. Stayed on very impressively from the rear, showing that the further they go the better he gets. Still has plenty of spirit despite his age and regardless of what the trainer may think; 11-3 is a very nice weight for a horse who after today's performance should be carrying a lot more. Got 50's on him. He's now down to 33's, so i'm happy with that.

Looked like he was tailing off but he finished well even though I don't think he was in it to win it, a good prep race and if they can get him there in good shape why can't a 13yo win it?

Was huge prices on betfair last week, if he takes his place this year I'll be quite excited.

[Posts: 12313Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

PDB as low as 7s now

Quite frankly a ridiculous price and i'm tempted to lay it all the way til April. Just not bred to win this race.

I agree 7/1 is too short at this stage Mark, but you'd have to take double figure prices if you wanted to lay PDB. Around 10/1 looks fair value to me.

[Posts: 768Joined: 14 Jul 2007, 01:37]

ive always liked black apalachi and always thought him a national type, unlucky not to have wona national like clan royal

the only thing putting me off is his age 13yrs now

i also like chicago grey, the only thing with him is he is grey can we paint him

vf

[Posts: 1043Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

PDB as low as 7s now

Quite frankly a ridiculous price and i'm tempted to lay it all the way til April. Just not bred to win this race.

I agree 7/1 is too short at this stage Mark, but you'd have to take double figure prices if you wanted to lay PDB. Around 10/1 looks fair value to me.

Comply Or Die was fair value at 10-1 as he'd proved his stamina in the Eider.

Not touching PDB at all.

[Posts: 1043Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

I know what you mean Mark, on the face of it winning a 2 miler doesn't point to a national type. Only think i would say in his favour is that he has run 4 times over 3m, winning twice and 3rd once.

Of the previous 6 races he has run before this one, he won them all, and none of those were below 2m4f.

I thought at the end of the race that his chance had gone, but he rallied so well to get up I admit I was impressed. He obviously has a will about him, stamina enough to win over 3m, but it seems also enough speed to win over 2m.

If Ted Walsh, who knows a thing or two about National types, keeps him in the race (nice weight of 10st 12lbs) I admit I would be a bit interested in him.

He has been cut to 16s with some bookies as you say (in fact 14s with a couple) but plenty of 20-1 is still available.

Worth a punt?

There's nothing ' new ' in that run though. It was over an inadequate trip

Not my idea of a National bet. Yet to win over 3 miles outside of points.

[Posts: 12313Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Prince De Beauchene goes on good as well as soft ground. Proven at the time of year and on course (although not National course). Won the 3m1f handicap chase at Aintree last year that Don't Push It had won before his victory.

By an influence for stamina, French Glory who needed 1m4f and didn't run over further than 13f. Best win Rothmans International. Sire's sire Saddlers Wells, who although failed to win at 12f, was a good second in the KG VI & QEII Diamond Stakes. Did get horses at shorter, but is more than a fair stamina influence himself. Most sires he's sired are stamina influences (Old Vic responsible for both Comply Or Die and Don't Push It). French Glory is out of a mare who was by another stamina influence, French Derby winner Hard To Beat. Although Prince De Beauchene is not a "proven" 4m+ stayer, he settles well and runs as though will get further than the 25 furlongs. Had he been a "proven stayer", he'd be a lot shorter than 10/1. Unless the ground is soft or heavy, you usually need a horse with a bit more speed than one paced plodders of the Welsh National / Eider variety (I wouldn't describe Comply Or Die as a "plodder"). So strangely enough, unless it comes up very soft, an out and out stayer (eg Le Beau Bai) is often a negative.

Mullins has improved most if not all of his ex-Johnson horses and can't see another horse looking as well-handicapped.