Grand National 2012

[Posts: 12581Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Prince De Beauchene goes on good as well as soft ground. Proven at the time of year and on course (although not National course). Won the 3m1f handicap chase at Aintree last year that Don't Push It had won before his victory.

By an influence for stamina, French Glory who needed 1m4f and didn't run over further than 13f. Best win Rothmans International. Sire's sire Saddlers Wells, who although failed to win at 12f, was a good second in the KG VI & QEII Diamond Stakes. Did get horses at shorter, but is more than a fair stamina influence himself. Most sires he's sired are stamina influences (Old Vic responsible for both Comply Or Die and Don't Push It). French Glory is out of a mare who was by another stamina influence, French Derby winner Hard To Beat. Although Prince De Beauchene is not a "proven" 4m+ stayer, he settles well and runs as though will get further than the 25 furlongs. Had he been a "proven stayer", he'd be a lot shorter than 10/1. Unless the ground is soft or heavy, you usually need a horse with a bit more speed than one paced plodders of the Welsh National / Eider variety (I wouldn't describe Comply Or Die as a "plodder"). So strangely enough, unless it comes up very soft, an out and out stayer (eg Le Beau Bai) is often a negative.

Mullins has improved most if not all of his ex-Johnson horses and can't see another horse looking as well-handicapped.

You have to be an out and out stayer. Many 3 mile chasers have floundered on the final circuit and how many horses are in contention in the closing stages of a national ? Sometimes four or five turning for home but usually no more than two at the finish. The last half mile to a mile finds them out.
Comply Or Die was a thorough stayer, proven by his runs in the RSA, Hennessy and the Eider prior to running at Aintree. Same for Mon Mome and the rest.

I don't think you understand what I meant as "out and out stayers" Mark.

Of course you need a "stayer" in a 4m4f race. It doesn't matter if they're also proven at 4m as long as they're capable of showing their form at 3m2f. Comply Or Die and Mon Mome were not "out and out stayers", because they did not need extreme conditions to be effective at 3m2f or even 3m1f.

These days, unless the Grand National is run on very soft ground, out and out stayers are usually outpaced before staying on all too late. Obviously some 3m2f horses will fail in the closing stages, others will stay on well.

[Posts: 12581Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

My point about quality is that making an analysis of French Glory in order to determine one of his progeny's ability is pointless. He is a poor sire and Prince De Beauchene is an exception, that he might be of sufficient quality to win the National is in spite of his sire, not because of him.

In my original post EF, I didn't asses Prince De Beauchene's quality by looking at French Glory.

Whatever the quality of a sire: Punters can gain some knowledge about a horse's chance of staying the trip by looking at its pedigree. (Along with other relevant information like its own temperament and form). With French Glory I was assesing his stamina attributes, not quality.

[Posts: 12581Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Also in my mind is that teenagers (horses)[just like people when they get old ] loose their speed, lets not forget that it was a slow Bobbyjo race.


Occasionally you're get freak results like anything and that's probably why the is only 3 horses who won as teenagers in the entire history of the race, but I choose to ignore them for a national.

Looking at the record of teenagers in the National, it's true they haven't won for over 25 years. However, there's been so few of them run that just one win would percentage-wise make them a good age group.

Although one has to take in to account the possibility of a 13 year old being on the downgrade. Black Apalachi should not be dismissed entirely on age grounds. The staying on second to PDB was a decent effort over what is probably an inadequate trip these days.

After a Grade 2 second, I hope Dessie Hughes apologises to Phil Smith. Having branded BA's handicap mark as a "disgrace".

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

A bad sire is far less likely to impart any qualities he was endowed with to an exception from his normal progeny so trying to attain any clues from the top line of his pedigree has limited, if any, merit.
In trying to assess the extent of Prince de Beauchene's stamina looking at the distaff side of his pedigree may prove more useful, but trying to assess any horse's ability to stay 36f on pedigree is like trying to play darts while blindfolded and standing on a turntable.

[Posts: 12581Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

I don't know about that EF. Old Vic sired two winners and a second in three years. Comply Or Die, Don't Push It and Black Apalachi.

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

How would that compare to Old Vic's other progeny that ran in the race and showed insufficient stamina? Trying to convince people that pedigree analysis is worthwhile for a one-off distance is futile. On pedigree any horse you think would stay 36f would be just as likely to stay 72f.

[Posts: 1086Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

Prince De Beauchene goes on good as well as soft ground. Proven at the time of year and on course (although not National course). Won the 3m1f handicap chase at Aintree last year that Don't Push It had won before his victory.

By an influence for stamina, French Glory who needed 1m4f and didn't run over further than 13f. Best win Rothmans International. Sire's sire Saddlers Wells, who although failed to win at 12f, was a good second in the KG VI & QEII Diamond Stakes. Did get horses at shorter, but is more than a fair stamina influence himself. Most sires he's sired are stamina influences (Old Vic responsible for both Comply Or Die and Don't Push It). French Glory is out of a mare who was by another stamina influence, French Derby winner Hard To Beat. Although Prince De Beauchene is not a "proven" 4m+ stayer, he settles well and runs as though will get further than the 25 furlongs. Had he been a "proven stayer", he'd be a lot shorter than 10/1. Unless the ground is soft or heavy, you usually need a horse with a bit more speed than one paced plodders of the Welsh National / Eider variety (I wouldn't describe Comply Or Die as a "plodder"). So strangely enough, unless it comes up very soft, an out and out stayer (eg Le Beau Bai) is often a negative.

Mullins has improved most if not all of his ex-Johnson horses and can't see another horse looking as well-handicapped.

You have to be an out and out stayer. Many 3 mile chasers have floundered on the final circuit and how many horses are in contention in the closing stages of a national ? Sometimes four or five turning for home but usually no more than two at the finish. The last half mile to a mile finds them out.
Comply Or Die was a thorough stayer, proven by his runs in the RSA, Hennessy and the Eider prior to running at Aintree. Same for Mon Mome and the rest.

I don't think you understand what I meant as "out and out stayers" Mark.

Of course you need a "stayer" in a 4m4f race. It doesn't matter if they're also proven at 4m as long as they're capable of showing their form at 3m2f. Comply Or Die and Mon Mome were not "out and out stayers", because they did not need extreme conditions to be effective at 3m2f or even 3m1f.

These days, unless the Grand National is run on very soft ground, out and out stayers are usually outpaced before staying on all too late. Obviously some 3m2f horses will fail in the closing stages, others will stay on well.

Disagree. You can't be anything but to win a National these days. Cloudy Lane was further evidence of a 3 mile chaser who just didn't last home.
Silver Birch
Ballabriggs
Numbersixvalverde

None of them quick enough to win top class 3 mile chases. Don't Push It was running over shorter as a novice but it was then three years before he won a 3 miler and again, not a top class one.
I'd question any horses ability to stay this distance if they have won at Class 1 handicap level or above over 3 miles. The race won by Mon Mome at Cheltenham was a poor race.

Calgary Bay, Planet Of Sound, Shakalakaboomboom, Cappa Bleu, Quantitativeeasing are others i'd put a line through

Beginning to like the look of Robert Goldback though. Stayers on both sides of the family, jumps well, likes the ground, similar profile to others who have won / run well in the race..
Would rather back that at 40-1 than Seabass or PDB at 10's or shorter.

[Posts: 12581Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Disagree. You can't be anything but to win a National these days. Cloudy Lane was further evidence of a 3 mile chaser who just didn't last home.
Silver Birch
Ballabriggs
Numbersixvalverde

None of them quick enough to win top class 3 mile chases. Don't Push It was running over shorter as a novice but it was then three years before he won a 3 miler and again, not a top class one.
I'd question any horses ability to stay this distance if they have won at Class 1 handicap level or above over 3 miles. The race won by Mon Mome at Cheltenham was a poor race.

Calgary Bay, Planet Of Sound, Shakalakaboomboom, Cappa Bleu, Quantitativeeasing are others i'd put a line through

Beginning to like the look of Robert Goldback though. Stayers on both sides of the family, jumps well, likes the ground, similar profile to others who have won / run well in the race..
Would rather back that at 40-1 than Seabass or PDB at 10's or shorter.

What the xxxx?

How you can claim Ballabriggs as an "out and out stayer" Mark, get real. He'd won the Kim Muir over 3m1f110y at the Cheltenham Festival, a top class handicap. And had enough speed to win a 2m4f novice hurdle.

Don't Push It won the John Smiths Handicap at the Aintree Festival, woth almost £44,000 to the winner. That's a top class handicap!

Numbersixvalverde won the Thyestes Handicap Chase at 3 miles, one of the most important, top class handicaps in Ireland.

Silver Birch had finished 2nd in a x-country 3 mile event, but probably better over further. However, he had already got good Aintree form which (to a degree) overules the "out and out" statistic.

I'd agree, Calgary Bay, Seabass and Quantitativeeasing are highly unlikely to stay. Shakalakaboomboom and Planet Of Sound 50/50 on good ground, unlikely on soft. Cappa Bleu has already been placed in the Welsh National. Possibly a little below his best there, but it was on softer ground than ideal. I'd say unless it comes up very soft he's a probable to stay. Very much doubt if Roberto Goldback will stay 4m4f.

If you look back Mark, I never said all 3m chasers will stay. As with Cloudy Lane, you've got to judge every horse on its own merits.

[Posts: 1086Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

Disagree. You can't be anything but to win a National these days. Cloudy Lane was further evidence of a 3 mile chaser who just didn't last home.
Silver Birch
Ballabriggs
Numbersixvalverde

None of them quick enough to win top class 3 mile chases. Don't Push It was running over shorter as a novice but it was then three years before he won a 3 miler and again, not a top class one.
I'd question any horses ability to stay this distance if they have won at Class 1 handicap level or above over 3 miles. The race won by Mon Mome at Cheltenham was a poor race.

Calgary Bay, Planet Of Sound, Shakalakaboomboom, Cappa Bleu, Quantitativeeasing are others i'd put a line through

Beginning to like the look of Robert Goldback though. Stayers on both sides of the family, jumps well, likes the ground, similar profile to others who have won / run well in the race..
Would rather back that at 40-1 than Seabass or PDB at 10's or shorter.

What the xxxx?

How you can claim Ballabriggs as an "out and out stayer" Mark, get real. He'd won the Kim Muir over 3m1f110y at the Cheltenham Festival, a top class handicap. And had enough speed to win a 2m4f novice hurdle.

Don't Push It won the John Smiths Handicap at the Aintree Festival, woth almost £44,000 to the winner. That's a top class handicap!

Numbersixvalverde won the Thyestes Handicap Chase at 3 miles, one of the most important, top class handicaps in Ireland.

Silver Birch had finished 2nd in a x-country 3 mile event, but probably better over further. However, he had already got good Aintree form which (to a degree) overules the "out and out" statistic.

I'd agree, Calgary Bay, Seabass and Quantitativeeasing are highly unlikely to stay. Shakalakaboomboom and Planet Of Sound 50/50 on good ground, unlikely on soft. Cappa Bleu has already been placed in the Welsh National. Possibly a little below his best there, but it was on softer ground than ideal. I'd say unless it comes up very soft he's a probable to stay. Very much doubt if Roberto Goldback will stay 4m4f.

If you look back Mark, I never said all 3m chasers will stay. As with Cloudy Lane, you've got to judge every horse on its own merits.

Don't Push It won a class 2 full of donkeys in a time 30 seconds slower than standard
Numberixvalverde won a grade b full of donkeys. The fav was Bizet ( who ?! ) running off 118.

Le Beau Bai is an out and out stayer and won a mediocre 3 mile chase before it's WN win.

If you win a Grand National you are an out and out stayer.

Roberto Goldback - Has won over 3 miles ( unlike Seabass ) and stays on over three miles. Jumps soundly and up with the pace.
Sire = Bob Back, who's progeny include Burton Port, Bobs Worth, Bacchanal among others
Dam = Mandysway, who is related to Sir Rembrandt, Macgeorge, Maximize, St Mellion Fairway,

stayers and National form in the pedigree - much better chance of staying than some of the shorter priced flashier types.

[Posts: 1861Joined: 25 Jul 2011, 05:04]

I didn't realise you gave Philip blowjobs as well as Nicky.

post by Zarkava just what this forum needs

[Posts: 290Joined: 18 Sep 2011, 17:34]

I didn't realise you gave Philip blowjobs as well as Nicky.

post by Zarkava just what this forum needs

What is thoroughly amusing is that it seems to have legitimately upset you.

What Zarkava said has absolutely no relevance to this thread. We get it, you're sensitive, but if you wish to complain go and do so rather than looking for blatant sympathy in every thread you post in. Nobody cares.


Perhaps its me, but it seems like there are a ridiculous number of solid National candidates this year?

[Posts: 768Joined: 14 Jul 2007, 01:37]

Blazing Tempo, Little Josh, Cooldine, Northern Alliance and Qhilimar were the five horses to be taken out, leaving 77 entered.

vf

[Posts: 12581Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Convinced myself.
So now on:
Niche Market 33/1, Cappa Bleu 33/1 and Prince De Beauchene 10/1.

And a fourth.
Ballabriggs 18/1.

Held on until today just to know he's ok (confirmed to run at Kelso tomorrow). Although on the face of it not very well handicapped this year; obviously acts on the course and has an excellent strike rate. The reason for that percentage could be idling, which makes it look as though he's got little in hand. However, a long way clear in Kim Muir coming to the last fence, before only just scrambling home. We now know that effort was nothing to do with not staying and everything to do with idling. It's possible if not probbable Ballabriggs had more in hand than the winning distance last year. Proven on both soft and good ground. Race at Kelso tomorrow has cut up and quite a bit better than those rivals at Ballabriggs best. Don't expect him to be at best, but even a placed effort is likely to see a shortening up in price. Then there's the build up to race day, where the McCain factor is bound to bring more support. So plenty of time if deciding to lay back.