Argento chase

[Posts: 767Joined: 22 Sep 2011, 23:12Location: North Wales]

It's definitely a race to watch for me, although I wouldn't have a piece of Grands Crus for a second. This is a very hot renewal, and while I don't doubt his future credentials for a second, I'd rather fancy the 2nd season chasers here.

Getting weight, I do fancy Tidal Bay e/w if he jumps well enough, but let's be fair, that's a massive if! He could definitely run a big race though as Nicholls has revelled in this race over the last couple of years, and Tidal Bay looks like he's been aimed at it.

Captain Chris is without question the best horse in the race, and people are assuming that he wasn't fit in the King George, and that he will be now. I'd go against that conclusion, and say that this is just another step forward for him. Captain Chris is a much better horse than we saw on Boxing Day, but I can't imagine that we'll see the best of him on Saturday. It's an open Gold Cup year and I'm sure Philip Hobbs of all people is aware of that, and his fitness in March is of the upper must importance.

Time For Rupert is another interesting runner for me. His last run at Newbury is sure to have given him some well needed confidence, and he could well run like the horse he promised to be on Saturday against a field without a fully established star, on a track that he loves.

As for Diamond Harry, he's never liked Cheltenham and never will, so for anyone who has forgotten this, he simply won't win round the track of champions.

As I said before I'm not getting stuck into this one, but if I were to, it'd probably be Time For Rupert win/Tidal Bay each way/Reverse forecast the 2.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

No Grands Crus.

[Posts: 199Joined: 18 Mar 2008, 20:41Location: Weston super mare]

With grand crus avoiding this 'hotter' race will we see him versus long run in the AON? Not likely. I'd say anyone with an AP ticket on Grand Crus for the gold cup will be frustrated at the merry dance Mr Pipe has played the media. Same every year with the al ferof/grand crus novice skipping the novice races hype. Seen it all before and I'm glad to say I don't fall for it anymore.
With the new shape to this race at current prices I would say Tidal is too short to trust. Carruthers at 20's may run a decent race.

[Posts: 1861Joined: 25 Jul 2011, 05:04]

Obviously that 6/1 feels awful good now but what a bummer.

What was David Pipe hoping? Nothing else was going to turn up.

Gawd knows they've have plenty time to come to the conclusion the horse can't handle running in a competitive race 7 weeks before his next run

I'd be very careful about backing him ante post for anything now as this just doesn't smell right.

[Posts: 199Joined: 18 Mar 2008, 20:41Location: Weston super mare]

Fair point fist there is a whiff of suspicion that could be read into his defection. As far as full company goes he was probably looking for a soft Argento like last year which this race is definately not. That being said its perfectly winnable if the horse is good enough. Could just be that pipe feels he has the RSA winner in the stable and doesn't want to risk his confidence prior to the big day. Connections have come a gallant second to big bucks twice at festivals last season and it may be the RSA is their best chance of a Cheltenham winner.
Is diamond Harry lining up? Stable I very quiet.

[Posts: 385Joined: 18 Mar 2010, 11:28]

although ive told myself only to back on the day of this race, im regretting not taking the 6's on offer for diamond harry.

2/1 seemed high anyway to me for a horse like grands crus running basically against dissapointments this season you could say.

markets like this are always suspicious. roll on saturday.

[Posts: 115Joined: 29 Oct 2007, 17:14]

Tidal Bay for me 2nd in this last year and the year before in the same meeting he won the Cleeve Hurdle beating among many others Time For Rupert.
If he jumps which he will he'll win.

The 10/1 I got before GC's defection looking very good now. Worry is Captain Chris but I think just be at the top of his range over three miles, we'll see.

[Posts: 1861Joined: 25 Jul 2011, 05:04]

I half thought about laying of some of my bet on Captain Chris but taking it he stays and I'm just about certain he will this all of a sudden looks like a steering job and 3's look way too big.

Diamond Harry has been plagued with problems and the only time they have managed to get him on the race course in 14 months was at Haydock. For a horse who is best when fresh he ran a total stinker and there is no reason to think he'll run any better here. You'd need a huge leap in faith to even consider backing him.

Time For Rupert who I thought was a Gold Cup horse in the making hasn't faired much better since he was firmly put in his place by Weird Al. He did mange to win last time but against horses that would be tailed off here and he was far from impressive. Even if he can reproduce his run behind Weird Al it surely wouldn't be good enough to win this.

Midnight Chase is a nice horse but he's failed 3 times now to show anything that would suggest he's up to this.

It's hard not to like The Minack but will he run? I see he's entered for the Hennessy and would expect he would go there and Tidal Bay will run here.

Tidal Bay. Can PN tranform this vagabond into a proper racehorse? I doubt if anyone could he's won 1 race in 16 outings and even at his very very best he's an Arkle winner taking on a better Arkle winner IMO

I just don't see any danger to Captain Chris just a whole lot of maybe's and if's

[Posts: 132Joined: 23 Dec 2011, 13:21Location: Hamilton]

Thanks for the heads up with the weather Beau Ranger, that maybe changes my thinking on the race. I do like to find a bit of value if I can, so can I throw Little Josh into the mix.
He has run 18 times, mainly in decent races, winning 8 times and 2nd twice. Six of his wins have been on heavy (3) or soft (3)

It's little over a year ago that he won the Paddy Power at Cheltenham, beating no less than Long Run by 4 3/4 lengths, albeit he was getting 10lb's.

His last run, at Cheltenham last january was not bad, but he tired at the end after trying to give lumps of weight to everything in the race bar Noland.

I know the problem is that we would have to take his fitness on trust, not having run for a year, but we know he does like Cheltenham, and if the going is soft or heavy, he will love that too.

Nigel Twiston-Davies is known to have the occasional punt, so I would watch the market carefully. He is 40's with Coral's and Stan James and if he is fit enough, I would expect that to drop. I know there are other horses in the race that are better than him, but if he gets the going he wants, 40-1 is huge. I'm having a bit of that e/w thank you very much.

[Posts: 81Joined: 10 Mar 2011, 22:20]

My first ever ante post bet and the horse is a non runner lol

Anyway I was thinking anyone remember this horse

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT6FLppRHik

Maybe the pipe team thinking to look after Grand Crus and not overface him? with what happened to Gloria Victis.

Anyway My revised bet if I have one it might be Time For Rupert,

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

The replay I'm desperate to see is Hors La Loi's Champion Hurdle, just so I can see exactly how easily Valiramix was travelling.

[Posts: 41Joined: 11 Feb 2011, 00:22Location: Tamworth, Staffs]

As predicted, Pipe has bottled it...God knows how he can have any Gold Cup aspirations with Grands Crus if he won't let him take this lot on ( Chances are he will probably come out and run in the AON and beat Long Run now )Anywhere but Cheltenham and i'd be happy to take 7/2 about Diamond Harry however just can't have him round Cheltenham.So a toss up between Time for Rupert and Captain Chris but just can't choose between them

[Posts: 144Joined: 20 Sep 2010, 22:08]

The replay I'm desperate to see is Hors La Loi's Champion Hurdle, just so I can see exactly how easily Valiramix was travelling.

Just on the subject of Champion hurdles,you'd hardly have a link to the famous 2005 race between Hardy and Harchi?