Prix De Arc De Triomphe 2012

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

Saturday's Grand Prix should give more of a hint to the French 3yo challenge. Having said that I am happy to see that Masterstroke has bypassed this race, M. Fabre knows what it takes to win the Arc better than anyone. Of the older horses, Galikova had a pleasing comeback run and her whole season is geared to Longchamp in October.

[Posts: 632Joined: 05 Jun 2012, 14:26]

I don't fancy Sea Moon at all. He's still only a Group 2 winner who struggled to put away Dandino first time up this year. OK he wasn't near his peak then, but Dandino did little for the form, being turned over at odds on by a John Gosden outsider in his following race. (Even if Hayley Turner looked outclassed by William Buick in the saddle).

Sea Moon beat Melbourne Cup horses in the Hardwicke, not usually the paciest of animals and the two are pretty exposed at six years old I would think. His most visually impressive win was an 8 length sluice in last year's Voltigeur but the odds on Fav that day, Seville, was one of last years biggest disappointments in my mind and the form has a weakish look overall. Sea Moon couldn't follow up in the Leger, where a handicapper on the upgrade finished in front of him and where the winner went on to be beaten a combined 25 lengths in two runs since. Yes he's open to improvement but he will need it to cope with Nathaniel for one, a proven Gp1 horse with as much improvement (at least) possible. I have backed Camelot ante post for the Arc but honestly prefer the look of Nathaniel now. If Camelot is the exceptional three year old in a modest looking crop, then Sea Moon is in trouble, if Nathaniel improves the same applies. It is enough for me to believe one of those two scenarios will prove to be true and as Peter Jones would say:- "Sea Moon, I'm out"

[Posts: 3988Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Sacramento,CA.]

SNA ran a very good race last year and according to Aidan is back to his best.He must have a great chance to improve on last year. However he will have to cope with a less than world classs jockey in the saddle.But first let's see how he runs in the King George.

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

SNA ran a very good race last year and according to Aidan is back to his best.He must have a great chance to improve on last year. However he will have to cope with a less than world classs jockey in the saddle.But first let's see how he runs in the King George.

You just cannot help yourself sometimes can you Andy? Mind I very much doubt that most of the field in the Arc will have the assistance of a world class jockey.
Other than Peslier and Dettori, both of whom seem to lack their former consistency. Fallon's record in big races outside Great Britain has always been very average, Murtagh is still battling his personal demons which seemed to make him a better jockey when he was in their thrall. Buick has all the makings of a world class jockey but is still learning, Barzalona has found UK racing very different to French racing where he learned his trade and is going through a period of adjustment. In view of this, the best option is a French-based jockey that knows and rides Longchamp well.

[Posts: 3988Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Sacramento,CA.]

Perhaps you are right since not one French jockey is in the Shergar cup.

[Posts: 3988Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Sacramento,CA.]

C. Soumillon,G.Mosse,M.Guyon,M.Barzalona,O.Peslier.To name but a handful of French jockeys who regularly appear on the world scoreboard from Melbourne to Dubai to the BC.

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

C. Soumillon,G.Mosse,M.Guyon,M.Barzalona,O.Peslier.To name but a handful of French jockeys who regularly appear on the world scoreboard from Melbourne to Dubai to the BC.

All very good jockeys but you said "World Class" which implies a higher echelon. Peslier in his prime was certainly world class in the late 90s. In Europe today there are many very good flat-race jockeys but I would not regard them as world class in the grand history of the sport.

If you insist on taking cheap shots at young Mr O'Brien without suggesting who and why could do a better job then you will continue to come across as a sad, bitter and twisted old man.

[Posts: 3988Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Sacramento,CA.]

Without responding to the name calling I will just mention the obvious Ryan Moore,Johnny Murtagh, Kieren Fallon all who have proven themselves, over the years to be, in my opinion, world class. I can only assume that you consider the other gentleman to be equally competent as a jockey.I don't.You are entitled, as I assume I am also,to an opinion without being insulted for it.If not the son of a world class trainer and his name were Murphy would that young man be riding in the classics? In my opinion he would not.He would be earning his living as a journeyman National Hunt jockey, did he wish to pursue a career in the saddle.

[Posts: 938Joined: 28 Feb 2011, 13:01]

At 25s, I'm happy to take the chance Frankel will get the trip

Joe there's more chance of Sir des Champs running in the Arc than Frankel and thats only because he's got a french name! Besides I'm not sure the RSPCA would let a horse who's stamina is so much in question actually run!

[Posts: 1861Joined: 25 Jul 2011, 05:04]

Well done if you took that 25/1

As for Gordon....The lord said shut your face and his face was shut

Just as well you can laugh at yourself Gord Can't wait to here what you have to say when Sprinter Sacre is stepped up to 3 miles.

What I would really like to know is where is the second market for the ARC?

Some bookies are happy to lay Frankel at 1/3 with a run but there's no price allowances for the others if he does run.

For example Danedream is 6/1 but even if you fancied her till the cows come home without knowing if Frankel runs or not you couldn't possibly take that price.

The bookies are already sitting with satchels full of ante post that were struck when Frankel was not being considered for the race and they are quite happy to keep market dormant and hope he does run. They clean up if he does

No doubt some big bookie will make offers like if your horse finishes 2nd to Frankel we will return your ante post stake.......with up to 50 quid in small writing.

There must be a lot of punters out there praying Frankel wont run because if he does they have no chance of winning..poor sods

[Posts: 938Joined: 28 Feb 2011, 13:01]

I took the 25s but quickly traded out as it's beginning to look highly unlikely he will run.

I suspect connections were caught up in that big emotional rolling wave of hope and enthusiasm that rolled off the Knavesmire on Wednesday afternoon. They rode it like a skillful surfer and now that it's flattening out they will, I think, quietly resume training the horse for the Champion Stakes.

A shame in a way because if a doubt remains in the eyes of connections that he will stay another 352 yards beyond the York trip, that lone seems ridiculous as a reason not to go.

There must be something else driving their decision - whether it is travelling, ground fears or traffic issues in the race, I don't know. Personally, I'd rather see him run and lose (assuming there are no excuses), than not run and maintain his unbeaten record.

That said, I simply could not see him being beaten there if TQ got the run he wanted. Ground and trip simply would not affect such a freakishly wonderful horse.

[Posts: 3988Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Sacramento,CA.]

Having watched the Arc second win yesterday and the Arc first win the King George two weeks ago it is difficult to see what is to prevent Danedream from repeating again,(Yogi Berra) so to speak.

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

Masterstroke runs in the Grand Prix de Deauville this afternoon. Not a race to have thrown up many Arc winners (Molvedo in 1961 was the last to win both races in the same year), however Godolphin have very little else to aim at the race so a good run this afternoon should book him a place in October.