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2012 Gold Cup

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Sea Pigeon

Postby Sea Pigeon on 06 May 2011, 22:26

Long Run had a very hard race in the Gold Cup. If the race has not left any lasting marks he remains the one to beat. The current best odds of 3/1 are probably down to the fact that very few horses win back to back Gold Cups and because he had such a hard race. If he returns as good as ever he will probably trade at 7/4 if he wins the Betfair Chase and Evens if he wins the King George.

At present the opposition is thin on the ground, of the older brigade Denman and Imperial Commander will probably turn up again but they will only be making up the numbers and racing for a place.

The biggest disappointment for me at Cheltenham was Time for Rupert, the horses that beat him look to be nothing more than good handicappers. He will still be a young horse next year and will be aimed at the Gold Cup. The present odds of 16/1 are too high (just as the 25/1 for Long Run was last year). If he has recovered from whatever was ailing him at Cheltenham and can get back on the winning trail I can see his odds tumbling to around 8/1.

Rubi Ball is a top class French chaser who has beaten and been beaten by Long Run, his present odds of 16/1 will tumble if he has the Gold Cup confirmed as a target.

Captain Chris could just as easily end up running in the Champion Chase or the Ryanair and speaking through my pocket I hope he goes for the former.

Masterminded is something of an enigma, he was very impressive over 2.5 miles last time out. If he is beaten in the King George he will probably drop down in distance and run in the Ryanair.

Diamond Harry, Weapons Amnesty and Burton Port are coming back from injuries.

Wishful Thinking and Mon Parrain are brilliant jumpers of a fence and look to be improving although they are not certain to get the trip and may run elsewhere.

Big Bucks is looking to rewrite the record books for the World Hurdle.

Grands Crus currently available at 50/1 would be an interesting contender if he ran in the Gold Cup as a novice.

Pandorama needs a bog and the other Irish horses don't look good enough.

So we have horses who are not good enough, not certain to stay, may run in a different race, unlikely to get soft ground, may not have recovered from injury, or may not improve enough.

For me the value is Long Run @ 3/1 and Time For Rupert @ 16/1 EW

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thehorsesmouth

Postby thehorsesmouth on 07 May 2011, 00:20

[quote="Sea Pigeon"]Pandorama needs a bog and the other Irish horses don't look good enough.[/quote]


I thought Ireland would win this year's Gold Cup after Weapon's Amnesty hacked up in the RSA and if he retains that ability I still think he'll be hard to beat. We won't know the answer to that question until the autumn though.

The other Irish horse I like is in the same ownership: Quito De La Roque. I thought he wouldn't have the pace for 3 miles on fast ground at the start of the season but I'm delighted that if anything he's better on good going. He's a lazy sort who overcame a couple of horrendous errors at Aintree to battle home before slaughtering the field at Punchestown during the week. He'll love the hill and you can be sure he won't be outstayed.

Boston's Angel is tough as nails and will be sure to run his race, but whether that will be good enough is another issue. I backed Jessies Dream in the RSA this year and felt he was a bit unlucky. If they could get his jumping straightened out he probably wouldn't be far away either, but Boston's Angel out-battled him fair and square and battling qualities are something you need in a Gold Cup.

Quito De La Roque for me.
If one was inclined to worry about what Faugheen finds off the bridle then worry not, he won't come off it

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Admiralofthefleet

Postby Admiralofthefleet on 07 May 2011, 00:38

Most exciting young chaser has got to be Mon Parrain, won in a canter at Sandown over 3 miles so he gets the trip alright

Was so gutted when he got tired in the Topham and just lost out to a course specialist with a stone less and 5 years on him

Beautiful jumper and one I am definitely looking forward to see next season.

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Rubyisgodinthesaddle

Postby Rubyisgodinthesaddle on 08 May 2011, 23:16

Quito De La Roque is a unbelievable ommision from that list!!

Best Novice Chaser seen in years....Aintree/Punchestown double was superb
User StatusRubyisgodinthesaddle over exposed

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EmmyK

Postby EmmyK on 09 May 2011, 10:31

I quite like Time For Rupert and would happily take 16s on him. He was not himself in the RSA, that was not him getting outclassed or outpaced, that was a horse who was clearly uncomfortable and something was up.

I really wouldn't be surprised if he comes back in banging form and shapes as a really serious horse this season.

I think most of the opposition will be irish, obviously Quito De La Roque, and there is a tiny, probably slightly insane, part of me that thinks Joncol, if he's right, and it's soft, could win a gold cup. I think he's better than he's shown so far, but time is running out.
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Kauto Kid

Postby Kauto Kid on 09 May 2011, 17:28

Looking at the disapointment of Long Run in the 2010 RSA Chase ... i think it just goes to show what a year in racing can do, when Long Run won the 2011 Gold Cup.

The 2010 RSA has been some what of a grave yard, with Weapon's Amnesty, Burton Port, Diamond Harry all scheduled for the 2011 Gold Cup, but pulling out injured half way through the season...

If they were there and accounted for and had raced, i could have seen the older less profiled horses such as Neptunes Collonges, Tidal Bay not running. It just shows that this years Gold Cup was pretty weak, as all the best novices IMO fromt he previous season were not there, excluding Long Run.

Next season, with the 3 i have mentioned most likely returning to run in the Gold Cup, and on top some of the best novices from this season,,, such as Quito De La Roque, Time For Rupert, Boston's Angel i can see it being a fresh wide open race...

This is how i would guess at the moment who would be running in the race.:

Long Run
Imperial Commander
Denman
Quel Esprit
Burton Port
Weapon's Amnesty
Diamond Harry
Midnight Chase
Bostons Angel
Time For Rupert
What A Friend
Quito De La Roque

Possibles - Captain Chris, Masterminded, Carruthers, Pandorama, kempes
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darren83

Postby darren83 on 12 May 2011, 12:51

I have already backed WEAPONS AMNESTY at 25/1 to win the Gold cup next year.

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fivelongdays

Postby fivelongdays on 12 May 2011, 21:11

Same here - but I'm sure they may well be an addition or two as the year rolls around...
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"It's all about one horse - and that horse is Outlaw Tom!"

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vikingflagship

Postby vikingflagship on 17 May 2011, 21:22

:D weapons amnesty

vf

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andrewhill343

Postby andrewhill343 on 06 Jul 2011, 16:01

Just found out I'm gonna be a dad for the first time and the babys due on gold cup day. Was gonna stick a few quid on Baby Run just for the crack. Is it unheard of for a racehorse to improve 40lbs at the grand old age of 12? :D

And this post has turned me into a group winner I think..... brilliant.

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Venture to Cognac

Postby Venture to Cognac on 08 Jul 2011, 06:47

Double post
Last edited by Venture to Cognac on 08 Jul 2011, 06:50, edited 2 times in total.

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Venture to Cognac

Postby Venture to Cognac on 08 Jul 2011, 06:47

Long way off Andrew, but think he'd give you a run for your money for at least a circuit, who knows what would happen if it cut up, at least you know he likes the track.

I chucked a couple of quid on him a couple of months ago, but, as I said, think it would have to cut up badly. It's a big ask at his age. If you're looking for a bet to celebrate why don't you consider giving the kid an appropriate "Gold Cup winner" name. I think Quito de la Roque Hill has a nice ring to it.

PS congratulations on your big news.............on becoming a Group 1 winner.

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thehorsesmouth

Postby thehorsesmouth on 09 Jul 2011, 17:17

:lol: Rocky Hill does have a ring to it!
If one was inclined to worry about what Faugheen finds off the bridle then worry not, he won't come off it

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