Odds Line Experiment

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

This is based on David Renham's method outlined on his website back in 2005. First rate all runners from A to F as followes :

A. Very strong chance
B. Good chance
C. Worth considering
D. Unlikely, but cannot be dismissed
E. Poor chance
F. Virtually no chance

Rank the horses in order from A down to F and then give a percentage chance to each runner. Compare your odds with those available in search of a value bet, considering only those rated A to C.

As an example here's my analysis of the 4:25 at Musselburgh on Saturday 7th April, a class 6 0-65 handicap run over 9 furlongs.

SELDOM : Absent 192 days which may make him vulnerable to those with race fitness, but has previously won off a layoff of 40 days so has won previously when fresh. Decent 2nd in higher grade LTO at Newcastle, and in a field not replete with pace good to see his three wins have all come in fields of 9 or less. Trainer Mel Brittain's s/r at Musselburgh is an impressive 27% ( + £12.00 ). Rating = B

LA BACOUETTEUSE : Two victories over 10f+ on stiff tracks and looks up against it down in trip over an easy nine. Rating = E

SHAMARLANE : First start for Clive Mulhall having broke her maiden 497 days ago in a class 6 handicap over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton. Not impossible but worrying yard is 0-32 on turf. Rating = D

CABAL : Won last two starts and potentially still well handicapped off a revised rating of 58 having won off 74 on turf in June 2010. Concern with him is the small field not playing to his strengths as a confirmed hold up type. Rating = C

PROHIBITION : Another to have won its last two starts, but that was off marks of 52 and 53 ( Amy Scott claimed 3 lbs ) and 5 lb higher here. Couldn't rule out completely but she too will need a strong pace to aim at and isn't as attractive in my book as SELDOM and CABAL. Rating = D

Little needs to be said about the chances of MYRAID, NICHOLAS POCOCK, NAAFETHA and CARNELIAN who I all rate as F's.

Working to a 100% odds line I came up with the following :

SELDOM B 33.3% 2/1
CABAL C 30.8% 9/4
PROHIBITION D 16.7% 5/1
SHAMARLANE D 5.9% 16/1
LA BACOUETTEUSE E 4.8% 20/1
MYRAID F 3.8% 25/1
NICHOLAS POCOCK 2.0% 50/1
NAAFETHA 2.0% 50/1
CARDELIAN 1.0% 100/1

Of course, for this sort of thing to be successful you need your runners rated A to C to make up the bulk of the winners. Here the only two possible bets are SELDOM and CABAL so it'll be interesting to see if either offer any value come Saturday.

Your thoughts are most welcome !

[Posts: 510Joined: 10 Nov 2004, 11:57Location: Hertford]

Looks very interesting, Bluebook but shouldn't your post be in the 'Systems' area?

[Posts: 491Joined: 26 May 2009, 19:28Location: Swindon]

My method of looking at a race like this:

As it is a class 6 race my par is 60 so ignore anything that hasn't reach this level.

Taking the best 3 form races for each horse you can normally spot the class horse in the race.

LA BACOUETTEUSE 25-Aug-11 Crl 11Gd C6Hc 1K 77
SELDOM 04-Jul-11 Rip 8Gd C5Hc 4K 75
SELDOM 18-Jul-11 Bev 8Gd C5Hc 2K 72
SHAMARLANE 27-Nov-10 Wol 7St/Slw C6Hc 1K 70
SELDOM 15-Aug-11 Thi 8GS C5Hc 2K 67
PROHIBITION 30-Jan-11 Kem 8St C6Hc 1K 67
NICHOLAS POCOCK 03-Sep-11 Wol 9St C6Hc 1K 66
NICHOLAS POCOCK 10-Aug-11 Wol 9St C6Sl 1K 66
NICHOLAS POCOCK 13-Dec-10 Wol 9St C5Hc 2K 64
PROHIBITION 23-Mar-12 Lin 8St C6Hc 1K 63
Par line***************************************************
CABAL 02-Mar-12 Wol 9St C7Hc 1K 57
CABAL 11-Jun-11 Chs 12GF C4Hc 5K 56
CABAL 18-Nov-11 Wol 7St C6Hc 1K 55
LA BACOUETTEUSE 03-Aug-11 Ncs 10Gd C6Hc 1K 53
PROHIBITION 11-Aug-11 Chp 8Gd C6Hc 1K 53
CARNELIAN 17-Mar-12 Wol 14St C6Hc 1K 52
MYRAID 02-Feb-12 Wol 12St C6Hc 1K 51
LA BACOUETTEUSE 26-Sep-11 Ham 12Sft C5Hc 2K 43
MYRAID 23-Feb-12 Sth 8St C6Hc 1K 43
MYRAID 10-Jan-12 Sth 12St C6Hc 1K 42
NAAFETHA 26-Aug-11 Ncs 7Sft C5Md 3K 40
NAAFETHA 30-Jul-11 Ham 6Gd C5Md 2K 33
CARNELIAN 19-Sep-11 Ham 9Sft C5 2K 22
CARNELIAN 26-Aug-11 Ham 9GS C5Md 2K 13
NAAFETHA 11-Oct-11 Ncs 7Sft C6Hc 1K 5

Seldom stands out to me

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

elcatero

This isn't really a system but a method. Not trying to split hairs, just thought it'd be more at home here. Should I post on systems too ?

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

Moving out of my comfort zone for this next race, a class 3 novices' chase over 20f at Carlisle ( Saturday 2:50 ).

From top to bottom :

DEGAS ART : Carries a 10 lb penalty having won its last two starts in novice company, including a win over two miles at the track on its last run. Beat Kai Broon at Kelso who subsequently won next time out in a class 4 handicap back at that track. Form of last win also franked with runner-up Saddle Pack winning his next start. Has something to find at the weights with RICH LORD and is up in trip, but looks to have a good chance in a relatively weak contest. Rating = B.

RICH LORD : Best in at the weights rated 122, like DA, carrying 11-4 and with Lucy Alexander taking off a further 5lb. First chase win LTO came over a furlong further here on heavy ground. Fifth placed Soul Bid came out and won a maiden chase next time out, although three others from that race have failed to win since. Hard to knock since he's struck up a good relationship with rider Lucy Alexander, but worrying the Racing Post had this to say after his victory : "His rider continues to impress and she clearly gets on well with him, but his profile dictates he´s one to be taking on again next time out". Still, cannot dismiss. Rating = C.

DOUBLE EXPRESSO : Not too bad an effort last time out behind Willie Hall, but has 12lb to find with both DA and RL and would likely need both to run below par to have any chance. Rating = D

POLITICAL PADDY : Already been beaten twice over course/distance in slightly lower grade and requires a leap of faith to imagine him getting involved. Rating = E

SHEEPCLOSE : Won debut bumper back in 2009 but very modest over hurdles since. Switch to fences only hope of a revival and that surely still a slim one. Rating = F

So in order of ratings we have :

DEGAS ART B 40% 6/4
RICH LORD C 35% 15/8
DOUBLE EXPRESSO D 14% 6/1
POLITICAL PADDY E 8% 12/1
SHEEPCLOSE F 3% 33/1

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

Couple of things.

I've also posted on the systems forum and will be carrying on there instead of here.

The Blues Brother : Are they speed or form ratings ?

[Posts: 4415Joined: 14 Mar 2006, 11:35Location: Doha, Qatar and Co.Clare, Ireland.]

Good stuff, Bluebook. Keep it here imo.

Ginger will be along shortly to verify your percentages.....

[Posts: 491Joined: 26 May 2009, 19:28Location: Swindon]

The Blues Brother : Are they speed or form ratings ?

They are speed ratings but I use them to compare how well in a horse is against the official handicapper.

[Posts: 2013Joined: 28 Nov 2008, 01:49]

Good post's guys.

There will be a few of us watching with interest.

[Posts: 1427Joined: 22 Nov 2006, 20:55Location: UK Midlands]

I don't often comment these days but I do look in if only to see that Bill (billion) is not getting out of hand. Myself I am more interested in the odds factor and don't mind how I arrive at my selections so long as they are successful. Keeping it simple to reduce the work necessary I usually employ a modified version of Clive Holt's Fine Form Mater Formula and then check the Betfair odds. Taking these two races today I wouldn't consider the Musselburgh 4.25 4yo+ handicap at this stage of the Flat and the Carlisle 2.50 novice chase the odds are too short.

Mus 4.25 1. Cabal 5/2, 2. Prohibition 11/4
Car 2.50 1. Rich Lord 10/11, 2. Degas Art 7/4

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

To be worthy of a bet a horse must be rated between A to C and offer at least a 50% overlay ( so if it is 6/4 the required odds would be 9/4, if 2/1 it would be 3/1, and so on ). It is necessary to have at least some margin for error for all those times one is hideously wrong... ! Prices of all possible contenders will be compared in the five minutes before the off and bets struck on those offering the best value at that time and that time only. It'll ether be two points win or one point each-way.

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

3:55 Carlisle class 3 handicap chase over 24 1/2f.

MORGAN BE : Hasn't scored off this sort of mark (121) since January 2009. Ideally wants it softer and all wins going left-handed. Carlisle course record = 5873. Rating = E

VAMIZI : Carlisle record = 221 and only 5lb higher for 3 1/4L win LTO. Obvious claims back here. Rating = B

HARRY FLASHMAN : Looks happiest going left-handed and all three chase wins at Hexham. Debut at this track. Not impossibly treated off 120 ( won off 109 but gone close off 120 already )and decent record fresh, but chase record going right-handed ( 42234, all at Perth ) suggest place chances stronger than that for the win. Rating = D

YOU KNOW YOURSELF : Horse-for-course with a 100% record here having won twice over 20f. Falling back to a winnable mark after a spell in the doldrums and worth considering with yard in good form. Rating = C

AMMUNITION : Last win came over the marathon distance of 31 furlongs at the stamina sapping Exeter. Surely wants a greater test of stamina than this now, for all it's a stiff 3 miles. Rating = D

ISLA PEARL FISHER : 4-12 over fences and won off 106 LTO. Rated 110 here but Lucy Alexander claiming 5lbs so ostensibly running off 105. However, her record on IPF now reads U4. Legit' excuse for 4th as ground was riding too soft, but being unseated three out at Newcastle strikes a note of caution. Rating = B

Odds line :

VAMIZI : B 29% 5/2
ISLA PEARL FISHER : B 27% 11/4
YOU KNOW YOURSELF : C 17% 5/1
HARRY FLASHMAN : D 13% 13/2
AMMUNITION : D 9% 10/1
MORGAN BE : E 5% 20/1

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

A going change at Musselburgh could have implications in the 4:25 with both SELDOM and CABAL probably happier on firmer. PROHIBITION, in contrast, has won on heavy.