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It Can Be Done - Kevin Blake

General discussion about Uk, Irish and International horse racing
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thehorsesmouth

Postby thehorsesmouth on 19 Dec 2013, 14:47

The Irish Field has put up the introduction to Kevin Blake's book on their website. Could be a book for Woolf and the naysayers :)

I've already ordered it, hopefully will get it in time for Christmas.

Here's the extract (http://www.theirishfield.ie/site/articl ... 3810&cid=5):

"People who say it can’t be done should not interrupt those who are doing it."- George Bernard Shaw.

Betting. When you hear it mentioned, what comes into your head?

For many, the stereotypical betting man is a degenerate gambler, untrustworthy, sporadically destitute, the type who would sell their grandmother for a fiver and is destined to end up skint at least once.

If a well-dressed man were to walk into a dinner party as a stranger and reveal during the course of the evening that he traded shares on the stock market for a living, he would most likely be warmly welcomed by most as a desirable guest with an exciting and enviable profession.

However, if the same man, presented in the same way, were to reveal that he bet on horse racing for a living, eyebrows would inevitably be raised and opinion divided as to his desirability and credibility.

While an indisputable degree of misconception and snobbery exists amongst the general public with regard to betting, the reality is that risk taking is part of human nature. If that wasn’t the case, we’d still be living in caves.

If it doesn’t manifest itself in financial terms, be it through betting or more conventional and socially accepted types of investment/entrepreneurship, the unquenchable human desire for taking risks will be satisfied in other edgier ways such as making a reckless driving manoeuvre or embarking on an illicit romantic liaison.

Should betting be the option chosen for the expression of the desire to take risk, there are many options available these days. The major bookmaking chains have spent much of the last decade trying to funnel their customers - both online and in their shops - towards games of random chance, such as virtual racing or roulette. These fixed-odds games, whose outcome is determined by a random number generator, suit the bookmakers perfectly, as they are conducive to fast, repetitive play, giving the customers lots of thrills in a short space of time.

Even better for the bookies, these betting mediums are essentially no-risk propositions for them. The player’s skill or knowledge level is irrelevant - the games or machines have an in-built mathematical edge that guarantees the bookmaker a long-term profit.

Unfortunately, many of their customers who bet on such things are not aware that they literally have zero chance of making a profit in the long term.

On the other hand, while the general public may not realise it, betting on horse racing is very much a game of skill. Yes, there is an in-built edge for the bookmakers in the odds they offer, but a profit can be turned from betting skilfully and turning the edge in your favour.

Horse racing has been a popular betting sport for centuries because it can be enjoyed on the very simplest of levels. Anyone can select a horse to wager on for the most frivolous of reasons - such as a liking for the jockeys’ colours or the name of the horse - and in any one race taken in isolation they will have a similar mathematical chance of backing the winner as the form expert who came up with his selection after hours of study.

However, when this process is repeated over hundreds and thousands of races, true skill will shine through in the form of a profit or loss.

Betting on horse racing can be a very simple exercise but, when one delves into the inner workings of the variables that influence the result of a horse race, it soon becomes clear that horse racing is the single most complex sport on the planet.

Past performances, the race distance, the configuration of the track, ground conditions, the horse’s pedigree, trainer, jockey, and the likely pace of the race are just some of the factors which must be considered and it is this complexity that leads to the possibility of punters gaining an edge.

Bookmakers employ odds compilers to set their prices on racing and these employees are invariably good at their job, possessing a flair for mathematics as well as a sound knowledge of the form book.

But such is the depth and complexity of the sport, coupled with the fact that bookmakers have to set prices on every race every day, even the best odds compilers will frequently make mistakes or oversights of varying degrees. The punter who puts in the work will be able to identify these ‘ricks’ and, with the benefit of being able to pick and choose the races they play in, they can capitalise on them.

In fact, horse racing players have never been better placed to make money from betting on their sport. The internet has revolutionised form study, making a once laborious and time-consuming task much easier and faster, with vast databases of form and race replays being available at the click of a mouse for free.

The web has also allowed people to share information globally within seconds – and tech-savvy racing punters now have all the necessary tools at their disposal to acquire a level of knowledge that would previously have taken decades to accumulate.

Significantly, betting is now a tax-free pursuit from a consumer’s perspective. Due to competition between various bookmakers and the betting exchanges, the profit margins built into bookmakers’ prices have shrunk and the level of incentives offered to punters has never been better.

While punters have never had it so good, it must also be acknowledged that betting companies are quick to close the account or restrict the stakes of consistent winners, which is as strong an indicator as any that there are multitudes of winning punters out there.

That said, the aforementioned stereotype of the sporadically destitute betting man has developed for a reason and it isn’t without foundation. It is undeniable that the vast majority of punters will lose in the long-term and the two main reasons for this are laziness and lack of discipline.

One only has to observe customers in a betting office or walk through the stands of a racecourse with open ears to notice this behaviour.

Most punters want a shortcut to success. Be it a tip from someone who they perceive as being more knowledgeable than themselves or a system that can be rigidly followed - minimum effort and minimum accountability are the driving forces behind far too many people prior to placing a bet. If the tip or system fails them, it wasn’t their fault, it was the idiot who gave them the information.

Even if this lazy approach delivers success in the short term, the cavalier attitude many punters have to betting will inevitably lead to long-term losses.

Greed, competitiveness and thrill seeking are all natural human inclinations that will detrimentally affect ones betting and it is an unfortunate reality that many people think that embracing these emotions are part of what betting is all about.

This has undoubtedly been driven to some extent by the mainstream media portrayal of betting. More often than not, whenever betting is the subject of a movie or documentary, the emphasis is put on the glamour and excitement of gambling, with taking crazy risks and living it up whilst ones luck is in being celebrated as edgy and desirable.

However, the reality of serious betting couldn’t be further from this façade. There is nothing glamorous or admirable about betting recklessly for the sake of grandstanding. It is frankly stupid and will inevitably end in financial failure.

Betting is a mental test that will ruthlessly capitalise on any psychological weaknesses, leading to the reckless chasing of losses and other irrational decision making that has helped make the bookmakers so successful.

Anyone that wishes to be successful at betting needs to remove these misguided notions from their heads and approach betting in a much more emotionally level, calculating and measured manner. It might not make for an exciting movie, but it will at least give them every chance of making the game pay.

It is also my opinion that racing’s shady image in mainstream consciousness is partly due to losing gamblers who look to blame the sport for their losses rather than acknowledge their own shortcomings.

The conclusion often drawn by these losing punters is that it simply can’t be done. If they can’t bet profitably, no one can. It is impossible. This is their way of dealing with their own poor decision-making and/or lack of discipline. Their dissemination of this view only reinforces the negative image betting holds in the wider world.

The objective of this book is to show that, while it is far from easy, through hard work, dedication and iron-clad discipline, winning at betting is within the reach of anyone who wants it enough. Specifically, this book will seek to show that it is possible to win by betting on Irish flat racing and without the benefit of inside information.

Confining the book to Irish flat racing is an important distinction, asover the years it has become apparent to me that Irish racing has a relatively poor reputation among the betting community. Many otherwise well-informed punters regard Irish racing as, at best, difficult to work out and, at worst, lacking in integrity and to be avoided as a betting medium.

The betting exchange website Betfair has a lively forum where punters share opinions in a very forthright manner. A quick glance at any discussion there involving Irish racing will show how many regular punters regard Irish racing – full of crooked trainers, bent jockeys, dodgy stewards and shady bookmakers. The general viewpoint is that Irish racing is an insider’s benefit, a sport on which only those with inside information can make money when it comes to betting.

The goal of this book is to completely dispel this myth; to prove that not only can money be made by betting on Irish racing without inside information and without elaborate betting strategies, but that it is one of the most attractive and profitable racing jurisdictions in which to bet.

The other hope is that this book communicates the utmost importance of having the right mental approach to betting. Betting and the mainstream portrayal of it sets many mental traps for people that can lead to reckless decision making and associated consequences. However, no matter what skill level one possesses or how seriously one takes their betting, having the right mental approach will give them every chance of doing as well as their skill level allows and not fall into the aforementioned traps.

Unlike other books on this subject, as well as discussing the methodologies, theories and specific techniques of what is just one way to pursue profitable betting on Irish racing, it will also lay out in detail every bet which I placed during the 2013 flat racing season, documenting all the highs and lows along the way. In contrast with other books containing specific bet details, my bets do not have to be taken on trust by the reader, as my full betting records have been supplied to and verified by The Irish Field newspaper.

In a nutshell, I hope to show that it can be done.
If one was inclined to worry about what Faugheen finds off the bridle then worry not, he won't come off it

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Woolf121

Postby Woolf121 on 19 Dec 2013, 19:21

It cannot be done because of the problem of disguised ability, no amount of hard work and midnight oil will unlock racing to the punter who is not party to information. Blake is simply trying to rekindle enthusiasm in those who have abandoned racing. It seems as if decades have passed since I last backed a winner at an Irish course. Walk away from this increasingly crooked game, that can be done.

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thehorsesmouth

Postby thehorsesmouth on 19 Dec 2013, 20:44

But it has been done and is being done :)

You mean to say it cannot be done by you.
If one was inclined to worry about what Faugheen finds off the bridle then worry not, he won't come off it

 

Anonymous

Postby Anonymous on 19 Dec 2013, 20:48

Woolf121 wrote:It cannot be done because of the problem of disguised ability, no amount of hard work and midnight oil will unlock racing to the punter who is not party to information. Blake is simply trying to rekindle enthusiasm in those who have abandoned racing. It seems as if decades have passed since I last backed a winner at an Irish course. Walk away from this increasingly crooked game, that can be done.



Exactly, well done.

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theinsideman

Postby theinsideman on 20 Dec 2013, 10:34

Woolf121 wrote:It cannot be done because of the problem of disguised ability, no amount of hard work and midnight oil will unlock racing to the punter who is not party to information. Blake is simply trying to rekindle enthusiasm in those who have abandoned racing. It seems as if decades have passed since I last backed a winner at an Irish course. Walk away from this increasingly crooked game, that can be done.



These lines sound like they were aimed directly at you, Woolf!

"It is also my opinion that racing’s shady image in mainstream consciousness is partly due to losing gamblers who look to blame the sport for their losses rather than acknowledge their own shortcomings.

The conclusion often drawn by these losing punters is that it simply can’t be done. If they can’t bet profitably, no one can. It is impossible. This is their way of dealing with their own poor decision-making and/or lack of discipline. Their dissemination of this view only reinforces the negative image betting holds in the wider world."

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BHison2

Postby BHison2 on 20 Dec 2013, 10:57

Seems interesting; and with me not knowing much about Irish flat racing and needing to improve my mental approach to the betting game I'll probably order this.
"listen but erm, listen we're running plenty of horses so listen some of them run well but they're not all so listen, listen delighted" - Aiden O'Brien

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Woolf121

Postby Woolf121 on 20 Dec 2013, 12:22

theinsideman wrote:

These lines sound like they were aimed directly at you, Woolf!

"It is also my opinion that racing’s shady image in mainstream consciousness is partly due to losing gamblers who look to blame the sport for their losses rather than acknowledge their own shortcomings.

The conclusion often drawn by these losing punters is that it simply can’t be done. If they can’t bet profitably, no one can. It is impossible. This is their way of dealing with their own poor decision-making and/or lack of discipline. Their dissemination of this view only reinforces the negative image betting holds in the wider world."



I've been a backer since the mid 70's until relatively recently.
I've had a great many friends who were like me, avid form readers, most have abandoned their studies tired of the continual parade of explosive performers suddenly improving beyond reasonable expectation.Viewing race outcomes is laughable. I am sure that your experience is quite different and all is consistent with your expectations and free of surprises. Long may you profit.

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betlarge

Postby betlarge on 20 Dec 2013, 12:44

Woolfie 11th September (responding to me)

I am running a successful method. You naively refuse to see racing as being bent to the advantage of connections. That is your downfall. It is irresponsible to waste money day after day. I did something about it and now I'm winning while you, the naïve upholder of racing's integrity sink deeper into a hole.


Woolfie 20th December

It cannot be done because of the problem of disguised ability, no amount of hard work and midnight oil will unlock racing to the punter who is not party to information...walk away from this increasingly crooked game, that can be done.

Mike

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Woolf121

Postby Woolf121 on 20 Dec 2013, 13:16

betlarge wrote:Woolfie 11th September (responding to me)

I am running a successful method. You naively refuse to see racing as being bent to the advantage of connections. That is your downfall. It is irresponsible to waste money day after day. I did something about it and now I'm winning while you, the naïve upholder of racing's integrity sink deeper into a hole.


Woolfie 20th December

It cannot be done because of the problem of disguised ability, no amount of hard work and midnight oil will unlock racing to the punter who is not party to information...walk away from this increasingly crooked game, that can be done.

Mike


My success was short lived, proving even more emphatically that ''it cannot be done''.

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theinsideman

Postby theinsideman on 20 Dec 2013, 13:20

Woolf121 wrote:
betlarge wrote:[b] My success was short lived, proving even more emphatically that ''it cannot be done''.



Or perhaps proving even more emphatically that it cannot be done BY YOU. Don't blame the game for your own shortcomings.

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betlarge

Postby betlarge on 20 Dec 2013, 13:55

Woolf121 wrote:My success was short lived, proving even more emphatically that ''it cannot be done''.

I can't decide whether this is delusional narcissism or an attempt at stand-up comedy...

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ricky lake

Postby ricky lake on 20 Dec 2013, 16:46

Mike if anyone proved it can be done you certainly showed that , have you any plans to have another go next year ??

Happy Christmas to ya


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Woolf121

Postby Woolf121 on 20 Dec 2013, 20:31

Betlarge, He bets large, he has it large, he wins large. He profits large.

He is content with his knowledge and his insight and his unfailing ability to nail the winners

Betlarge,suggests a Grand at least stake, give up the pretence,
you target a tenner a month profit and rarely make it.

If you were Mr Large you would agree with me, you lose without inside info. The large people have departed leaving only the betsensibles and that's you Mr Betlarge.

Just another mug.

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