THM Goes Jumping 2011-12

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Have backed Becauseicouldntsee for the reasons outlined in the above post:

Grand National
€5 e/w Becauseicouldntsee @ 20/1
Paddy Power 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5


Forgot to add that I joined the many on here who took the 8/1 about Grands Crus for the King George with William Hill. As others have said he'll surely be close to favorite. I never saw him as an RSA horse but at Kempton his speed should come to the fore and he looked impressive in the Feltham. I see he's still 8/1 with Stan James.

King George
€10 e/w Grands Crus @ 8/1 (William Hill)



+ €322.22

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

The Powers Gold Cup is a very intriguing affair on Sunday, with Cheltenham form being brought to the equation by Call The Police and strong Irish form by Flemenstar and Rathlin. Flemenstar has been very impressive this season, hacking up Leopardstown at Christmas being the highlight. Rathlin looked very good last time out also, but I think he needs cut in the ground to dominate. He could get that if rain comes, but as far as I know there's little rain forecast. Given that Flemenstar has been so proficient on soft going, I think it might be worth taking the top two on with something that is proven on good, namely CALL THE POLICE.

Even on soft ground I think he's an each way bet to nothing. His run behind Last Instalment showed he was on an upward curve imo and that continued with a good run at Cheltenham. He wasn't knocked around there when it was obvious the front two had it between them and by the way Willie Mullins talks about him I think he could still be improving. If the ground is good there's a chance Flemenstar won't even run, and in that case he'll be sub-2/1 imo.

Powers Gold Cup
Call The Police
€5 e/w @ 5/1 (Totesport)

Also:
€5 e/w @ 5/1 (Totesport FREEBET)


+ €312.22

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Bradley has his first run since the Foxhunters over 3m 4f at Haydock today. The step up in trip will help no end, he was only getting going towards the finish at Cheltenham. It doesn't look the strongest race and he should be thereabouts.

4.40 Haydock
Bradley
€5 e/w @ 5/1 (Totesport)

+ €302.22

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Quiscover Fontaine is a NR in the Irish National unfortunately but I'm confident my second choice can go close. Ninetieth Minute was injured for a year before returning to be 2nd to Shot From The Hip at Fairyhouse in January. He then ran third behind Gates Of Rome and Shinrock Paddy, before hacking up back at Fairyhouse last time out. He'll handle any ground and the step up in trip should suit. His chase rating is 10lbs lower than his hurdles mark and I think he's almost certainly well handicapped. His lack of chase experience may count against him but I think he's worth a bet. He has been given too runs around the course this year and Tom Taaffe has had this in mind for a while.

Irish Grand National
Ninetieth Minute
€10 e/w @ 12/1 (Boylseports, 1/4 odds, 1-2-3-4-5)

+ €282.22

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

[quote="thehorsesmouth"]Bradley has his first run since the Foxhunters over 3m 4f at Haydock today. The step up in trip will help no end, he was only getting going towards the finish at Cheltenham. It doesn't look the strongest race and he should be thereabouts.

4.40 Haydock
Bradley
€5 e/w @ 5/1 (Totesport)

+ €302.22[/quote]



Bradley won well at an SP of 11/4, step up in trip looked to suit perfectly. Be interesting to see what the handicapper does with him now.

+ €40


+ €322.22

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Had €5 e/w on Lyreen Legend @ 5/1 with William Hill last night. With Ipsos Du Berlais being a non runner a Rule 4 deduction will apply. He mayhave a penalty for winning a Grade 2 but he's the best horse in the field and improving all the time. I thikn he'll make a very smart staying chaser in time, although PP only offered me 20/1 for the RSA . The ground is a concern but whatever beats him will know they've had a race.

In the 3 mile novice handicap hurdle one horse stands out at the prices: Bullock Harbour. I also think stablemate Jetson will be thereabouts but I don't think there'll be much between them. Robbie Power rides Bullock Harbour, although that does not necessarily mean he is the first choice. With 7 lbs claimed off Jetson he is only 1 lb higher than when winning at Leopardstown over Christmas. He should be competitive, but his price reflects this. Bullock Harbour is proven on good ground, and I think the step up in trip will suit.

2.55 Fairyhouse
Lyreen Legend
€5 e/w @ 5/1 (William Hill)

3.25 Fairyhouse
Bullock Harbour
€5 e/w @ 25/1



+ €302.22

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Lyreen Legend 3rd, he'll make a nice chaser next season.

Call The Police disappointed me, thought he would have finished closer. Now a believer in Flemenstar though, what a performance! Now there's a horse that will put it up to Sir Des Champs.

Cheltenham Gold Cup 2013
Flemenstar
€10 win @ 14/1 (William Hill)

+ €302.22

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

I think the Champion Point to Point Bumper tomorrow will be every bit as much a procession as it was last year. The horse who shall do so is TEELIN STAR. He has won two points by half the track on each occasion and is held in the highest regard. Coleman Sweeney, who rode Denman to victory in a p2p, has said that this horse could be the best he's ever ridden. I think we'll see another Simonsig performance from this fella tomorrow, and I also think he'll go off around 1/2.

4.10 Fairyhouse
Teelin Star
€50 win @ Even Money (Paddy Power)


+ €252.22

[Posts: 554Joined: 01 Oct 2011, 18:53]

This Teelin Star has a bit of a reputatiuon THM. I had a small bet myself, so let's see what it's made of. Do you think Flemenstar will stick it to SDS ? I know that after yesterdays race they said they wouldn't want the ground any faster. So the question is, how would yesterdays ground have compared to the Cheltenham ground ?

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

I've loved Sir des Champs since his first hurdle run here in Ireland. Everything about him screams champion imo. But this Flemenstar sure does frighten me! He's a bit like the equivalent of Frankel to SDC's Sea The Stars. He pulverizes his opponents but SDC seems to have any amount in hand over his rivals. SDC would still be my main fancy for the Gold Cup, but I think Flemenstar is a big contender. The ground yesterday was quicker than Cheltenham apparently. I can't remember what trainer was interviewed but that's what he said anyway, could have been Charlie Swan talking about Make A Track. Of course, the ground had got a little bit softer by the Thursday of the Festival.

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Teelin Star ran an stinker in the bumper. When the field closed on him he went out like a light and there was definitely something amiss. Ninetieth Minute a faller, was still going okay but was too far out to tell if he would have been involved in the finish.

What A Friend will go very closely to another Aintree Bowl imo. He won two years ago and is still only a 9yo. He should be fresher than most of these if he's over his Cheltenham fall, and the prospect of soft ground wouldn't bother him. The field could well cut up, with Alberta's Run a likely runner in the Melling Chase, and a chance that Riverside Theatre will run in the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown. If the ground is soft, then it must be more likely Medermit will also go for the Melling.

Aintree Bowl
What A Friend
€10 e/w @ 14/1 (Totesport)

+ €232.22

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

I've loved Sir des Champs since his first hurdle run here in Ireland. Everything about him screams champion imo. But this Flemenstar sure does frighten me! He's a bit like the equivalent of Frankel to SDC's Sea The Stars. He pulverizes his opponents but SDC seems to have any amount in hand over his rivals. SDC would still be my main fancy for the Gold Cup, but I think Flemenstar is a big contender. The ground yesterday was quicker than Cheltenham apparently. I can't remember what trainer was interviewed but that's what he said anyway, could have been Charlie Swan talking about Make A Track. Of course, the ground had got a little bit softer by the Thursday of the Festival.

I dont believe for one minute the ground was genuinely Good at Fairyhouse yesterday tommy,this Flemenstar will find things a bit too quick at Cheltenham,could be a Ryanair sort though!

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

I wouldn't worry about him finding things too quick to be honest Gord. I see no reason why those who said the ground was quicker than at Cheltenham would make it up! I haven't seen any times but the horse does everything effortlessly. Not a chance things will happen too quick over 3 and a quarter miles imo. I reckon Sir Des Champs could be the only horse with he speed to go with him.