Joni's Poni's

[Posts: 12326Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Sea Moon (ew 14's) is progressing just like all SMS 4 year old horses seem to do and I was very taken with his win this weekend. The things about this one is I think he is bombproof in that he stays very well, has a turn of foot and goes on pretty much any ground. I am sure this race will be the aim after the King George and I am hopeful he will run very well.

You've done it again Joni. Had no idea Sea Moon was 14's for the Arc. That looks massive! I'd expect around 6/1. Have a slight doubt about whether he's quite as effective on firmer ground. Impressive all starts on a soft surface. But other than that... St Nicholas Abbey is one rival with form in the book, but a second Breeders Cup might be the first priority. However, it is a little strange Sea Moon is favourite for Ascot and yet behind St Nich for Longchamp. Is the BC Sea Moon's target without going to France? Well I think it's worth the risk at 14's. Red Cadeaux is one of the most consistent horses in training. Beaten 4 1/2 lengths at Epsom, 4 at Ascot. Doubt whether St Nich is improving quite at the rate as Sea Moon. Make no mistake, the Hardwicke was a Group 1 race masquerading as a Group 2; won in impressive style by Sea Moon.

[Posts: 1616Joined: 11 May 2010, 14:41]

Reading the post today it certainly seems that the Arc is the target Ginge.

Am watching the racing at Ponte today and can't believe this Mashaari is out to evens. I saw this run second on soft ground lto at Newmarket and he almost beat the well fancied fav. Expect him to hose in today. I have had a nice bit on to win.

[Posts: 12326Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

A great week with fantastic racing and I made a bit of money as well!! My RA bets were:

Frankel to win by more than 7 lengths - 7-2 WON
Frankel to win by more than 10 lengths - 10-1 WON
Bullet Train - ew 250-1 lost
Farhh - ew 9-1 - placed
Colour Vision - 6-1 WON
Wrotham Heath - 9-2 LOST
Samba King - 16-1 LOST
Uriah Heep - 14-1 LOST
Newfangled - 2-1 WON
Thomas Chippendale - 9-1 WON
Sea Moon - 3-1 WON
Moonlight Cloud - 6-1 placed

30pt profit - I'll take that!

Sea Moon won as I hoped he would and the KG should be a great race with he, SNA, CDA and my mate Farhh likely to turn up.

Well done Joni, we do seem to agree on a lot of bets. Backed 6 of those myself.

How the xxxx did you manage to finish last in the Royal Ascot competition?!

Do you know if Farhh will be supplemented for the King George? Be an interesting contender if so. Or is that also in the Post?

[Posts: 1616Joined: 11 May 2010, 14:41]

Did I?! Maybe cos I only played on the first day!

Not sure about Farhh Ginge but they do like to suppliment don't they! They DID say it was going to be his next race.

I should leave Sunday's well alone - never seem to back a winner!

[Posts: 1616Joined: 11 May 2010, 14:41]

A trainer i will be following over the next few weeks is Sir Michael Stoute. After a dismal start to the season his horses are starting to show some consistency and I think there may be a bit of value to be had backing some of his that performed poorly first time out when the stable was under a cloud but who might just be better than those runs.

There are two running at Windsor tonight who fall into that category.

Duke Of Firenze (ew 5-1 BOG) runs in the 7.10 and looked a very promising sort last year. Ran no sort of race lto on soft ground but drying conditions and a mark of 80 makes me think he can be competitive tonight.

Similar comments apply to Strident Force (ew 6-1 BOG) in the 7.40 who runs off 73 and showed plenty of promise last year.

With Ryan Moore at the top of his game at the moment I am hopeful these two will be in the money and have trebled them up for fun with Stoute's maiden Kayuga in the 8.10.

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

Sea Moon (ew 14's) is progressing just like all SMS 4 year old horses seem to do and I was very taken with his win this weekend. The things about this one is I think he is bombproof in that he stays very well, has a turn of foot and goes on pretty much any ground. I am sure this race will be the aim after the King George and I am hopeful he will run very well.

You've done it again Joni. Had no idea Sea Moon was 14's for the Arc. That looks massive! I'd expect around 6/1. Have a slight doubt about whether he's quite as effective on firmer ground. Impressive all starts on a soft surface. But other than that... St Nicholas Abbey is one rival with form in the book, but a second Breeders Cup might be the first priority. However, it is a little strange Sea Moon is favourite for Ascot and yet behind St Nich for Longchamp. Is the BC Sea Moon's target without going to France? Well I think it's worth the risk at 14's. Red Cadeaux is one of the most consistent horses in training. Beaten 4 1/2 lengths at Epsom, 4 at Ascot. Doubt whether St Nich is improving quite at the rate as Sea Moon. Make no mistake, the Hardwicke was a Group 1 race masquerading as a Group 2; won in impressive style by Sea Moon.

14/1 reflects the very average record of English trained older horses in the Arc. If Sea Moon were put away until the Prix Foy then perhaps, but if he contests the King George and is kept busy over the summer then he'll probably leave his best there.

[Posts: 12326Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Seem to remember someone saying the exact same thing when I backed Dylan Thomas EF. Winner of both King George and Arc with Youmzain finishing runner up in both races. Dylan exactly "put away for the Foy" either. Of course Sea Moon probably won't win it, but he's only got to have a better than 7% chance to be worth a bet @ 14/1.

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

Dylan Thomas wasn't trained in England. Leggera was the last English trained horse I backed in the race. Usually the Niel and Vermeille are the first point of reference, especially as there is little real value to be garnered this far in advance, unless you plan on laying it off further down the line.

[Posts: 12326Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

The fact so many punters dismiss a horse's chance just because it's trained in the wrong place, ran in the wrong races, surprised you haven't come out with "hasn't won a Group 1"... Is what makes the horse "value". Seemingly doesn't matter what actual "form" it's got and whether it's improving and likely to be suited by conditions. ...

Judge the horse EF, not the country or race. Of course French horses have a better record in the race than British, they have more horses run in it.

This century:
In 12 races, French have won 5 (41.67%), British (trained in GB) 3 (25%), Irish 3 (25%), German 1 (8.33%).

Then again, French haven't won any of the last 3 (0%).

There is "value" to be had in most markets EF, even this far ahead.

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

There is value in most markets, and if Sea Moon runs in the Arc, I assess that he would start at a shorter price than he is now. The draw is a huge factor that could render his chances very slim on the day, if you do not factor in the chances of him getting various things in his favour then your value will be false. If he is brought to a peak for the King George then getting him to peak again for a race 2 months later has proven to be historically very difficult. The Arc is one of the few truly run races in France but on Saturday he beat 2 confirmed stayers on soft going, how he deals with something that can accelerate at shorter trips remains to be seen. In the Leger, it was evident that on faster going he could not cope with the acceleration of the field and stayed on into 3rd past horses whose stamina had given out.
The French have had a very poor run of late, their 3yo's look no better than the English classic crop at present. Mind the Grand Prix de Paris is not until next month so that will give a clearer indication of their colts.

Apologies to Joni for hijacking his thread.

[Posts: 12326Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

There is value in most markets, and if Sea Moon runs in the Arc, I assess that he would start at a shorter price than he is now. The draw is a huge factor that could render his chances very slim on the day, if you do not factor in the chances of him getting various things in his favour then your value will be false. If he is brought to a peak for the King George then getting him to peak again for a race 2 months later has proven to be historically very difficult. The Arc is one of the few truly run races in France but on Saturday he beat 2 confirmed stayers on soft going, how he deals with something that can accelerate at shorter trips remains to be seen. In the Leger, it was evident that on faster going he could not cope with the acceleration of the field and stayed on into 3rd past horses whose stamina had given out.
The French have had a very poor run of late, their 3yo's look no better than the English classic crop at present. Mind the Grand Prix de Paris is not until next month so that will give a clearer indication of their colts.

Apologies to Joni for hijacking his thread.

Factors like draw and going and even likelihood of an improving rival suddenly appearing - have all been allowed for in my assessment Eclipse as am sure it has with Joni's assesment. I work ante-post races out on what's needed to win an average renewal (unless I believe there are outstanding candidates, which is not the case this year).

There was a time when King George winnes/runners did not have a good record, mainly due to difference in going; and possibly coincidence. Once a couple of French horses come over and do well in the King George and then fail in the Arc... then all French trainers leap to the conclusion it was running at Ascot that caused the Longchamp flop. Other French horses don't come over, a self fulfilling prophecy.

Conduit won the King George and ran well in the Arc, beaten by horses with better form. Workforce ran in the King George (disappointed) before winning the Arc. Both were trained (like Sea Moon) by Sir Michael Stoute. Then there's the already given example of Dylan Thomas and Youmzain. Youmzain produced his form two years running at Longchamp after an Ascot run. Had Nathaniel run in the Arc, he may well have run well too. Connections chose the Champion where he ran to form.... That's just in the last 5 years.

You must have been watching a different St Leger EF, Sea Moon would've gone close if not won it with a clear run/ better ride. The Arc is seldom a test of sheer speed, horses need to stay. However, as my original post indicated, there's a chance good or softer suits him ideally. All allowed for in the assessment of "value". Sea Moon is 14/1, not odds-on; you can't have everything 100% in your favour at that price.

[Posts: 1075Joined: 25 Nov 2009, 12:56Location: Wrexham]

Seem to remember someone saying the exact same thing when I backed Dylan Thomas EF. Winner of both King George and Arc with Youmzain finishing runner up in both races. Dylan exactly "put away for the Foy" either. Of course Sea Moon probably won't win it, but he's only got to have a better than 7% chance to be worth a bet @ 14/1.

I think the point EF was making was that DT was trained in Ireland and not England, as per his/her prior post.....?

[Posts: 12326Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

If anyone can tell me Rich, what possible reason should there be for a difference between those trained in Ireland who attempt the two races and those trained in Britain? With 3 winners trained in both countries this century. Ireland and Britain are from sililar latitudes, so it's not as if Ireland has an advantage of a warmer climate. There simply is no concievable reason, therefore any minor differences are obviously a coincidence.