THM on the Flat 2012

[Posts: 443Joined: 13 Aug 2010, 23:05]

IM looks a worthy fave to me and I'm on, this years Derby form isn't working out which would put me off Main Sequence.

[Posts: 12272Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Having backed the horse for both English (ante-post) and French Derbys, I can just see something else going wrong.

God don't say that Ginger!

Something else almost did go "wrong"!

Phew! Stewards took an age.

If it wasn't for your thread THM, with all the other racing today wouldn't have seen the price (and backed Imperial).

Thanks THM.

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Well done Pants and GT, always nice to come out the right side of a finish as tight as that.

I missed the race live yesterday Ginger, and only saw the replay perhaps an hour after the race, was heart and mouth stuff in the last furlong! I didn't know there was a stewards inquiry until I read your post, I'd say the was uncomfortable

I was suprised that they made the running with Imperial Monarch, but I suppose they wanted anything but a repeat of what happened at Chantilly. I thought he won in spite of this, tenaciously fighting off all comers. I'd aim him at the Irish Champion Stakes next with a pacemaker. Given something to aim at I reckon his staying power would make him extremely tough to beat.

Also, here is a quote from Aidan O'Brien:

"It's been very, very difficult as all our gallops have been flooded since Epsom and the horses get very tired training on the all-weather."

Could explain the poor form of some of his runners lately.

[Posts: 4664Joined: 12 Mar 2008, 23:07Location: Taunton Somerset]

Inquiry went on forever, had just about enough time to go out for tea, have a couple of pints come home take the boy to bed, read him a book Roger Red Hat and Billy Blue Hat, go up the garage for my better half and buy her some cigarettes, have a chat with the neighbour about the weather and other crap get back, sit in the chair just in time to hear Imperial Monarch keeps the races.

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Glad I didn't have to endure the wait then Nathan!

In tomorrow's Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown I really like the favourite, Harasiya. She was impressive last time out over c & d and should handle the ground.

Silver Flash Stakes
Harasiya
€10 win @ 5/2 (PP)

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

After the impressive win of Harasiya and Imperial Monarch's gutsy win the deficit is now:

€195.50


It's going to be an uphill battle to maintain my run of profitable threads!

[Posts: 443Joined: 13 Aug 2010, 23:05]

Who do fancy for The Irish Oaks Tommy? Think it's between Great Heavens and Princess Highway who were both very impressive last time out and neither should mind the ground, think the Weld filly beat a better class of field so is narrowly preferred, have taken the 9/4.

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

I'm with you on the Irish Oaks Pants, Princess Highway for me too. I also think Princess Highway has the better form, she was mighty impressive last time out at Ascot. Of course, with the ground as bad as it is it's hard to be confident. I remember backing Sariska in similar conditions a few years ago and it was a cakewalk, the rest of the field couldn't hack it at all, and for that reason I won't be going mad backing big at the Curragh over the weekend. The further Princess Highway traveled at Ascot the better she went and was never more on top than at the line. She's won on Good-Yielding and Good-Soft but it won't be anything as bad as what she'll experience on Sunday. All in all, I think she's worth backing, but not too heavily.

A bit puzzled to see Cristoforo Colombo entered in the Anglesey on Sunday. I would have thought they'd save him for a bit of good ground given his last run. However, they must feel that if ridden with more patience he'll be able sustain his run to the line. I think he can win comfortably.

I agree with the views of others on here that tomorrow's King George looks the race of the season so far. All bar likely pacemaker Robin Hood are rated 117 or over, and this shows the open nature of the race.

Dunaden was unlucky in running behind Sea Moon in the Hardwicke and finished with a right rattle. However you'd have to wonder if he'll be quick enough to keep tabs on these, the best middle distance horses in Europe, and I can see him once again finishing fast and appear somewhat unlucky.

Sea Moon himself was impressive beating Dunaden, looking better than ever. He seems to be improving in typical Sir Michael Stoute 4 year old fashion and if he improves again he'll put it up to the rest of the field. He was beaten by St Nicholas Abbey at the Breeder's Cup but those were extremely different circumstances to those they'll get tomorrow.

Nathaniel won the race last year, will handle the ground and comes here off the back of a tenacious win in the Eclipse. That was his first run of the season and this is only two weeks later. He'll have to be tough out to win this.

Reliable Man is a Group 1 winner and ran a solid race in defeat in the Prince of Wales's Stakes. I wouldn't underestimate this horse but he may just miss out on a place again. I think he's sure to run a good race.

St Nicholas Abbey has won 3 group 1's now and his Coronation Cup win was his best performance since he was 2 imo. He was beaten in this last year but he never seemed to be at his best in 2011. Even in the Foy he wasn't fancied and he was a relative outsider in the Arc. There seems much more confidence in him this year, but there are doubts about his ability to go right handed and go on soft ground.

Danedream's Arc win was pure class, a host of good horses couldn't get near her. Her latest run was a bit of a damp squib however, and she needs to bounce back big time to win this. At the price, perhaps some will feel it's well worth taking the risk on her.

VERDICT: I couldn't put anyone off backing any of the above but one horse stands out for me at the prices: St Nicholas Abbey. Frankly, I think he's the best horse in the race. He stays 1m 4f very well, and when he hits top gear I don't think the others will be able handle him. I feel he's a much better horse this year than he was last year, he was exceptional at Epsom, and his Curragh run wasn't as bad as it looked (well, the ride was!). He's an each way steal imo at prices of around 7/2 or 4/1.

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

King George
St Nicholas Abbey
€12.50 e/w @ 4/1 (PP)

€220.50

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

VERDICT: I couldn't put anyone off backing any of the above but one horse stands out for me at the prices: St Nicholas Abbey. Frankly, I think he's the best horse in the race. He stays 1m 4f very well, and when he hits top gear I don't think the others will be able handle him. I feel he's a much better horse this year than he was last year, he was exceptional at Epsom, and his Curragh run wasn't as bad as it looked (well, the ride was!). He's an each way steal imo at prices of around 7/2 or 4/1.

Joseph

[Posts: 594Joined: 05 Jun 2012, 14:26]

Who do fancy for The Irish Oaks Tommy? Think it's between Great Heavens and Princess Highway who were both very impressive last time out and neither should mind the ground, think the Weld filly beat a better class of field so is narrowly preferred, have taken the 9/4.

On the ground Great Heavens could gallop them all into submission. Looked a horse who will get the Leger trip and is 2nd fav on some lists behind Camelot at about 8/1 for that race. Seems to have been overlooked somewhat with Michaelangelo and Shantaram also in the mix from the Gosden stable for the final classic of the season. Princess Highway was held up last time and that can be difficult to perform on heavy ground with a proven front runner on the surface in opposition. Probably a race to watch rather than get involved in too heavily as the leading players both have much promise for the future.

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Irish Oaks
Princess Highway
€15 win @ 2/1 (PP)

[Posts: 3550Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Juddmonte International
St Nicholas Abbey
€10 e/w @ 7/1 (WH)