TAPK (Cheltenham wagers)

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

15 days and 23 hrs to go to the Worlds greatest festival,a meeting I spend 366 days studying for!Since I started betting with Betfair in 2005 I haven't lost a penny in the Ryanair Chase in 7 years and this years race will test me big time,more about that later! This thread is all about how I'm going to break my Lucky 7 winners,a figure I have achieved again since 2005 every year! It should have been 8 last year but 'Kumbeshwar',and 'Get Me Out Of Here' lost on the nod!
I know I'm setting myself up big time here but hey confidence is King and I've got plenty!

Supreme Nov Hurdle,
I can confidently put up Darlan here,I'm on at 18's and 12/1,he reminds me a lot of 'Get Me Out Of Here' and apart from a crashing fall when looking like a certain winner last time out to me, he's improved a good 20lb since his last visit to Cheltenham,so long as he's not lost any confidence and is physically sound I believe Nicky will let him take his chance in this a favourite race of mine! Dangers? 'Trifolium'!
Previous Successes- 'Forest sun' 20/1 returned 7/4fav 1990 and 'Arcalis' 25/1 returned 20/1.

Darlan currently trades at 6/1 and has recieved sustained support for the past week,thats the sort of movement that signals
positive signs all is well!

Absolutely convinced Darlan is the real deal in this and wouldn't swap him for anything,obviously he needs luck in running but granted a clear passage he wins! Trifolium and Simenon at a big price to chase him home!

A profitable race but one that could have really set me up for the week,I feel slightly unlucky but both horses were placed and backed e/w so a good start!

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

The Arkle,
Ok so this 'Sprinter Sacre' looks the real deal but is he made of glass or Steel,this race will tell us! I'm on Al Ferof 12's and 10/1 with some 7/1 too.I'm sticking with him through all the hype this fav's getting,my horse is hard as nails and will fly up the hill,the Fav will set it up perfectly and The Grey will do what he did last year and beat him again imo.
Dangers?'Sprinter Sacre' if he gats away from mine! 'Peddlars Cross' if he jumps cleanly!
Previous Winners-'Commandante' 16/1,1990 returned 9/1, 'Forpadydeplasterer' 25/1,2009 returned 8/1

Doubts surrounding 'Peddlers Cross' participation in this, connections waving white flags! Al Ferof now into 4/1,again things are moving the right way from an ante-Post perspective. (02/03/12).

Again No doubts in my mind I'm on the best horse! Al Ferof will need to keep 'Sprinter' at arms length but after the last if they are side by side there's only one winner! Menorah to chase him home!

A bad result,No question about it,at 10/1 I would have settled for a place in such a small field!

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

Champion Hurdle,
Another favourite race of mine but this year I have lost near on £1500 on Spirit Son,its always a sickener and you never get used to it but the highs of Ante-Post betting have always far outweighed the losses so its a case of move on! On what I have seen I beleive the e/w bet of the day has to be Binocular at 5/1,he is the easiest horse in the world to know if he's on a good day just by looking at AP's style in the saddle,he rides this fellow like no other horse and when he's good he's very good,a repeat of his last run is enough to give the reigning champ a fright,I'm on at 10's on the machine to recover my losses,I'll be happy with that!
Dangers? 'Hurricane Fly' Obviously! and 'Zarkandar' still more to come from this fellow who will fly up the hill too!
Previous Winners-'Celtic Shot' 20/1,1988 returned 8/1
'Morley Street' 10/1,1991 returned 4/1.

All quiet on the Binocular front,a gust of wind could change that though! always on tenterhooks with this fellow!Still plenty 5/1 around. (02/03/12).

I'm not Bullish about Binocular but at 5/1 he is a bet to nothing,has to be placed at worst but if he turns up in the form of his last victory he'll give the 'Hurricane' a fright!Celestial Halo to be placed would be great!

The worst Ante-Post result of the week with 'Spirit Son not running,I clawed my Binocular stake back with 'Overturn' to place at 5/1,small compensation!

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

Festival Chase,
Tricky one Ante-Post but there's a couple I have had my eye on,'The Package' could be a blot on the handicap again,pipped 2 years ago off much the same mark,the stable are brilliant at laying one out.I know 'Junior' hasn't been laid out for anything this year other than The National but he could be a player in this however my selection is Quantitiveasing, I reckon this fellow is a 2013 Dark horse for the Gold Cup so I hope connections do decide to step him up in trip now.I'm on at 12's.
Dangers? 'The Package' for one! 'Magnanimity' if he runs!
Previous winners- Charter Party,10/1 1986 'Frenchmans Creek' 12/1 2002.

Another one of mine who has attracted plenty of support,now a 6/1 chance,plenty of weight and will have his work cut out against my 2 dangers who are well weighted.Magnanimity at 25/1 is my e/w bet of the day should he run! (02/03/12).

Totally convinced one of my 3 Ante-Post selections will win this but I can only put one up as the winner and I'm tossing a coin between Magnanimty and 'Quantitiveeasing'!!
At the weights I'm going with Magnanimity!!

Medium losses on both horses but another dissapointment as neither looked like winning!

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

Cross Country race,
A fine spectacle but a No bet race for me!

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

David Nicholson Mares final,
Again a No bet race but I will enjoy cheering 'Quevega' home!

My selection has to be Alasi I'm on at 20/1,so as much as she will struggle with the fav,a place is not beyond her! i did think she was going for the Centenary though!

Dissapointed to be robbed of 3rd place on the line but only to small stakes!

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

Centenary Nov Chase,
I like 'Alasi' and 'Cucumber Run' for this but have No Ante-Post wagers at all at the moment!


Still like the above 2 and have backed Alasi in the hope she returns to fences at 20/1. (02/03/12)

Again only small stakes loser as a N/R.

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

Day 2,
4m National Hunt race,
My initial fancy for this was the Gigginstown horse 'Crash' but he's not been entered so my options are still open on this one!

Four Commanders at 12/1 is my selection in the 4 miler,his form through 'Sir des Champs' and 'Last Instalment' is good enough for me!

A good result but I thought at the last he was the winner,No complaints to a small profit!

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

RSA
Here we go,the gloves are off big time on this race another fav of mine.My extremely confident selection here is First Lieutenant,he's shown nothing like the form that saw him fly up the hill in last years 'Neptune'but he has Chaser written all over him and I have been backing him for almost a year for this at 20/1 down.I have exactly the same feeling about him as i did 'Weapons Amnesty' and back then we had 'Long run' and 'Burton Port' to worry about,I fear nothing and put this fellow down as my Banker of the day!
Dangers? 'Grand Crus' If he battles like mine!
Previous Winners-Too many to list but 'Trabolgan'16/1 2005 returned 5/1,'Denman' 10/1 2007 returned Evs, 'Albertas Run' 25/1 2008 returned 4/1, 'Weapons Amnesty' 16/1 2010 returned 10/1.


I cant hide my dissapointment that my 'Jewson' banker now runs against my RSA Banker,whoever gets their ground wins,Soft and its Sir Des Champs and Good and its First Lieutenant,if Davy stays loyal,I'll feel better!

I wouldn't swap First Lieutenant for anything and am still as confident as ever,this fellow is my banker of the meeting so I will be gutted if he cant at least get placed!

My first big bet of the festival had me shouting jumping the last but was beaten by a sedate early pace,he never let me down and from an Ante-Post perspective it was a great result,No complaints with 10 e/w bets on the horse!

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

Neptune hurdle
My main hope hear is that 'Boston Bob'runs in this and not the 'Albert Bartlett' but I do like this Battonnier,he ticks my boxes and have backed him at 12's,again he has chaser written all over him just like Denman and First Lieutenant did and thay both ran crackers in this,I like this fellow a lot,next years RSA winner imo and I've backed that up at 66/1!
Dangers? 'Simonsig'If he stays on the bridle!
Previous winners-'Nicanor' 16/1 2006 returned 8/1.

Still happy with Batonnier and expect a big run if he gets the fav rattled he'll defineately out battle him.

Dissapointed that he was a N/R,small stakes loser!

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

Champion Chase
I cant go past Sizing Europe even if 'Somersby' runs which I hope he doesn't! I'm on at 7/2 with an interest at 14/1 in a double,I really cant see anything troubling him and even evens looks generous to me,a certainty if he stands up for sure!
Dangers? 'Somersby' if he runs!Nothing else!
Previous winners; 'One Man' 12/1 1998,returned 7/2, 'Azertyuiop' 10/1,2004 returned 2/1.

This fellow is the real deal and should be a certainty,here's hoping anyway!

No complaints as the best horse on the day won and deserved too imo!Medium stake loser!

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

Coral Cup,
Here we go again,I see the smokescreens are up on this one having got mugged on the line in last years 'County hurdle',I see he has an entry again and also 'The Pertemps final'.I'm totally convinced even with top weight this fellow is a certainty for this 'The Coral cup'.I have been backing him since Betfair opened a book and have 20's 16's down to 12/1.I love this horse and if there's any justice he'll win,I wouldn't mind Maurice taking 7lb off either,he's a capable lad,JP will lump on him on the day and i can see a massive gamble,he's called Get Me Out Of Here.
Dangers? Something getting around 18lb!
Previous winners- 'Spirit River' 10/1 2010,'Carlito Brigante'16/1,2011.


Its not just me thats 'hammering' this fellow but the gambles picking up pace and he's into 8/1,signs are crucial at this game and thats a good one,we dont need Indian smoke signals here!

I cant beleive connections aren't using their 7lb claimer today as 11-12 is a helluva weight,the bloody 'Pipe' horse looks thrown in getting near on 2 stone but we'll see! the moneys down now.'Carlito Brigante' would still be my danger though!

Again a great result for those of us with foresight,AP rode a blinder and GMOOH ran a blinder,no surprise something 'laid out' getting a ton of weight from mine beat us but again no complaints! What could have been the best days winnings ever for me just turned out to be a bloody good day! Frustrating though!

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

Fred Winter Juvenile,
Nothing at all in this one either,I'll leave it open for now,'Hinterland' could be interesting!

Kazlian is my selection here,its not a race I put much effort into but a winners a winner!

Yet another small stakes winner thanks to betting e/w!