Joni's Poni's

[Posts: 1614Joined: 11 May 2010, 14:41]

Thought I'd give this a go this year. The flat season almost on us and this is the time of year I love the most. Ooooh the anticipation!!

It promises to be a great season with Frankel, back for a 3rd season, likely to be the highlight once again. It really is tremendously sporting of the Prince to give us another year of him and I think we are going to see something even more special when he steps up in trip.

Anyway more of him later in the spring but for now I thought I'd put up my Ante Post bets.

I always like a bet on the Trainers and Jockeys championships. Small win bets on Sir Henry at 12-1 and Mahmood Al Zarooni at 14's and a monster bet (for me) on SDS at 3-1 for the jockeys. Yes I am well aware that he is now 5-1 with Ladbrokes after his appointment as second jock to Godolphin! I still think he'll go close though as all his main rivals have some sort of question mark over them and SDS will still get plenty of good spares for MJ. I also think the new whip rules will mean he suffers less suspensions this year. This boy is really the business and he has a hunger for winners. I don't think the appointment will affect him as badly as some think and I certainly think he will shorten at some point during the season.

I am a huge Cecil fan and can see him going close again this year as he will win at least 5 Group 1's with Frankel and has many more precocious 2 year olds this year. I can't quite believe he is 12-1 while Sir M is 5-1! How do they work that out?

But I really think this could be the year for M Al Z. He has been given massive firepower by Godolphin and has real strength in depth especially among the fillies. I can see him getting off to a flyer like last year and wouldnt be surprised to see those odds tumbling very quickly.

I have had small win bets on the 4 early classics:

1,000 Guineas - Discourse at 8-1. M AL Z has been quoted as saying this filly is better than Blue Bunting and she is the pick of his 3. The great news is that she has wintered in Newmarket.

2,000 Guineas - I have a feeling there will be a shock winner this year. I don't fancy Camelot at all as, apart from doubts about breeding, I don't think this race is high on AOB's list of priorities. Also his early season form of the past couple of seasons has been poor. So many of his improved massively for the first run last year and I would be much happier if this one was aimed at a trial which he won't be. I have had a speculative win bet on Abtaal at 20-1. He trounced the subsequent Criterium winner French Fifteen and he runs in a trial the week after next after which a decision will be made on English or French guineas. I suppose he may well go to the French but his trainer is happy to send horses over the channel so hopefully he'll do so this time.

Oaks - the Newmarket trainers really suffered from the lack of rain last summer and many of them have unraced or once raced maidens bred to be very good. I wouldn't be surpirsed to see something emerge from left field and there is no better place to look for one than at Warren Place. I have little bits on Fragonard at 33's and Defy The Odds at 50's and have also asked for a quote for Popular. Outside Newmarket I am a big fan of Wading but havent made up my mind if she is a Guineas or Oaks filly or both!

Derby - Camelot is the obvious one and he really did look the real deal last year but again M Al Z has inherited a very promising type in Mandaean at 25's. An unbeaten Group 1 winner for Andre Fabre last year he has also wintered in Newmarket and has all the main middle distance Group races as his target.

All very exciting and much more to follow.

[Posts: 557Joined: 01 Oct 2011, 18:53]

Good luck Joni. You put up proper write ups. Whatever the results, people who know your posts also know this is going to be a proper read. I backed Wading for the Oaks myself, but my bet doesn't mean much. I don't want to get too involved in early predictions. I think Strong Suit will be something though. Johnsons main jockey to win the title might be worth a bob or two. If it was de sousa what price would he be, as it isn't De Sousa, what price is he ?

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

Wading but havent made up my mind if she is a Guineas or Oaks filly or both!

She is 100% Both Joni! Ask yourself the same question about Maybe and the answer is 1000gns only.She has absolutely No chance of getting 11/2m,to be safe I would suggest lumping on for The Oaks!
The problem with Team Coolmore is they seem to think the flat starts at the end of May,its actually well started by then! They also defineately dony target the Guineas like they once did,its about time they had a Sire who could throw a Guineas winner or 2.............Montjeu could if they let him!

[Posts: 12324Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Nice to see you with your own thread Joni. Good luck.

I'm on Wading for both fillies Classics. Performance in Rockfell suggests she's got enough speed (at least at that time of the season) for Newmarket. But as TAPK says Coolmore have other possibilities for the 1000. Certainly bred to be even better suited to the longer distance.

I'd have been against Camelot if Harbour Watch were fit or Dabirsim was coming over. But unless a maiden winner comes through, doesn't look to have much to beat in the 2000. Am sure he'll be a better horse at 1m4f, however the 3 year old opposition is likely to be better quality over middle distances this year.

[Posts: 1614Joined: 11 May 2010, 14:41]

Thanks for those words of encouragement guys - it gives extra incentive knowing you will be reading it!

Bet365 have given me a stingy 33-1 about Popular btw.

[Posts: 1614Joined: 11 May 2010, 14:41]

There are some cracking fields lining up at Meydan this weekend.

Unfortunately I don't think it is a track where you can be confident that the best horse will win and it always seems to throw up a couple of funny results from falsely run races where the draw is all important.

None of that has deterred me from having a couple of bets though.

Firstly may I say I am taking the view that AOB will not have his team 100%. I know it is a long way to go with horses that are not fit but I find it hard to believe that he will have the likes of SYT at his best at the end of March. I remember him blaming his defeat in last years POW on not quite being ready despite having had 2 races prior so I will definitely be taking him on.

Game on Dude beat SYT easily at the Breeders Cup and 7-1 is a nice price about a well drawn horse who likes to run up with the pace and should therefore have no hard luck stories. I have backed him to win. I have also had a little each way on Capponi at 14-1. He may well be outclassed but, again, is well drawn, has all important course form and has improved a lot since joining M AL Z.

I have been given a strong word for Beaten Up in the Sheema and have backed him at 5-1. This horse looked awesome last year and has been reallly impressing at home by all accounts. Do you remember how poorly SNA ran first time out last year? I can't have him. The danger is Cirrhus Des Aigles who will strip fitter for his run a couple of weeks ago and goes from strength to strength. But at the prices it is Beaten Up for me.

Elsewhere on the night my mate SDS will win on Fox Hunt and I also think Musir will go close but there are no odds for these yet.

[Posts: 1614Joined: 11 May 2010, 14:41]

Seriously pee'd off at my own stupidity. On Monday I read that the draw had been made for World Cup night. I looked at the cards and picked my horses with that very much in mind.

Have just realised that they had NOT done the draw for the main race and that they were simply listed in alphabetical order!

Game on Dude is drawn widest of all and Capponi is out wide also in 11!!!

My old Maths teacher always said I was careless. Maybe he was right after all!!!

[Posts: 1614Joined: 11 May 2010, 14:41]

So here we go! Day 1 of what promises to be a great season. I keep my powder dry at the start of the season with no form to go on.

As such I have just 2 bets to add to the ones above.

I followed Fury off a cliff last year and have been determined not to back him today. HOWEVER, they found he had a twisted testicle last year and has now been gelded. Just typing that sentence made me wince so I am prepared to give the poor thing one more chance. For me though he is a win bet only as he is either going to hose up or flop again.

I have had one additional small each way bet in the World Cup. For a horse who finished 3rd last year and needed his first run a couple of weeks ago, Monterosso is a big price at 25-1.

[Posts: 1614Joined: 11 May 2010, 14:41]

A fantastic start to this thread with Monterosso winning at 25-1 and Capponi second at 14's. Why didnt I do the forecast??!!!!

I tell you M al Zarooni is the man to be on this year.

Fury ran well but didnt have the clearest of runs and may have been better with a bit of give.

Musir gave me a lovely run for my money but faded out of the places. Hope you were on the winner Gord - I know he is a favourite of yours.

Beaten Up wasn't quite up to it but what a wonderfully consistent horse that winner is. A must for the TTTF I would say.

Tragic for Fox Hunt - marred the whole day. Just glad SDS is ok.

One thing to take from the day is that Aiden's horses looked pretty forward which has to be a positive if you have backed Camelot and Wading.

[Posts: 1638Joined: 15 Nov 2010, 22:01]

I have had one additional small each way bet in the World Cup. For a horse who finished 3rd last year and needed his first run a couple of weeks ago, Monterosso is a big price at 25-1.

Joni you may surprise some on here putting up 25/1 winners but not me! I expected it later rather than sooner mind! Brilliant start to your thread,Well Done!
Yes I did the horse in question,No surprises there eh as I always said he was a proper Group 1 horse,Roger tweeted a picture of him this morning so I went in again,dissapointed with 'Margot did' and 'Prohibit' though, but did lay the Ar*e off 'So you think' the cart horse I said he was,odds on in running too!

[Posts: 1614Joined: 11 May 2010, 14:41]

Glad you were on him. Have to say I wouldnt have backed him in a million years. Didn't think he was Group 1 and thought he preferred soft anyway!

Re Monterosso and Capponi - the difference between M al Z and S Bin Surroor is that horses seem to improve when switched to AL Z rather than the reverse. How will the winner do back in England where his first target will be the POW? Hard to know what to make of the form but he certainly looks a progressive type who may well be just as effective on turf and just as effective over further. Lets not forgethe won the King Edward VII two seasons ago.

Last year M al Z had his horses very fit in April and many won first time out. Expect to see plenty of his horses put up on this thread in April and May.

Elsewhere in Meydan I thought the eyecatching performance of the night came from ST Nic. Had plenty of ground to make up in a slowly run race and may well have won in another 100 yards. Will surely go close in the major mile and a half races this year and is now starting to fulfil some of that promise.

[Posts: 1614Joined: 11 May 2010, 14:41]

Not much to get excited about on the racetrack for a week or two so my attention turns to the best golf tournament in the world. I love the Masters!

I always like a little flutter and this year I think there are only a dozen or so that can win it. The qualification system at Augusta is totally different from the other majors and, as a reult, lots of form players like Carl Petterson and Ernie Els find themselves missing out.

My picks are:

Rory McIlroy to win at 13-2. A big price for someone who has finished in the top 5 in almost every tournament this year and who showed last year that he can rip up this course.

Phil Mickelson to win at 12-1. Again a big price for a multiple winner who showed he is in very good form last week.

Justin Rose ew 30-1. Consistent performer this year and has won an event. His time could well be nigh.

Bubba Watson ew 45-1. Another high performer this year.

Charl Schwartzel ew 45-1. As above and a major winner.

Graeme McDowell ew 66-1. Has shown flasheds of his best form this year and has the game to win it.

YE Yang ew 140-1. I always back him and I hope he will come good one of these days!

[Posts: 557Joined: 01 Oct 2011, 18:53]

I'll jump in and have a few bets on something for the Masters, for a bit of interest. Let's see if we can crack a winner. I'll refrain from my immediate thought of backing anything with a kind of Korean/Japanese name.

Luke Donald(tenner) @ 16/1
Henrik Stenson(2 quid) @ 199/1
Martin Kaymer(2 quid) @ 84/1
Webb Simpson(2 quid) @ 69/1