2yo Super Star?

[Posts: 491Joined: 26 May 2009, 19:28Location: Swindon]

This morning I was compiling my speed figures for Chantilly, and had one of whose WTF moments as I just awarded the fastest 2yo speed figure to any 2yo at this time of year.

To put it into context how fast this performance was I just compared it against Camelot's best figure from last season which was 81 and this 2yo Penny's Picnic jusr received a speed figure from me of 85, which is a group race time.

I thought that I had made a mistake and rechecked the figures but they were right.

Penny's Picture performance was 11 lengths faster that the other 2yo contest won by Cumcuma who speed figure was 47 which made her 38lbs inferior to Penny's Picture.

A new super star? I hope so.

[Posts: 7Joined: 17 May 2012, 17:13]

Hi Blues Brother, Iv followed your posts regarding speed ratings on this forum which inspired me to give the system a bash.Im using a spread sheet set up so that all is needed is the relevent track varient, the winning time of race and distences behind the winners time. I currently have a speed rating for every horse thats ran in all handicap 5,6,7 + 8 furlong race's. This has proved to be a worth while project showing some glowing rewards ££. I back 'No Poppy' at 7/1 winning at Redcar having a speed rating of 83 from Doncaster, another recent, Valmina 7/1 at Bath having a rating of 77 previously from Bath, both big ratings in the class of race.I have put faith into your formula of LB/Length for certain tracks which seems to be working a treat. A few things from what you have posted have me puzzled, firstly your standard times differ from the R.P times,i.e Doncaster 5f R.P 58.0'S, B.B 58.50's,6F R.P 71.20, B.B 71.40, your standard times seem to be modified? This obviously has a huge effect on the rating figures, another thing I was hoping you could help with is the time/length, iv used 0.2 standard on all my ratings, im pleased with my ratings but finding them to be out to allot of the pro's, reason can only be to this figure,do you alter your time/length figure dependant on the race distance for your own figures.Your assistance to these queries would be gratefully appreciated, P.S Hows your flat season so far? LORD OF THE REINS.

[Posts: 491Joined: 26 May 2009, 19:28Location: Swindon]

@ LORD OF THE REINS

Regarding my standard times being incorrect, you must have an old copy of the standard times list, I update my standard times list on a weekly basis, for example I have just updated Navan (IRE) & Wexford (IRE) this morning (see below).

The Doncaster standard times have just recently been updated by Dave Edwards "Top Speed" and he changed the standard times for both the straight and round 1 mile distances by a second.

Your question: do you alter your time/length figure dependant on the race distance for your own figures?

I don't have to alter my time/length figures, that is why I have different lbs. per length variants for every course and distance and like you I use .2 (1 length) so when the standard time changes so does the lbs. per length variant.

The reason why your figures would look different to the pro's like "Top Speed", they do not use my lbs. per length scale, they use their own.

The most important factor regarding compiling your own speed figures is having accurate going allowances

For checking the RP standard times and when they altered, I have a "Times" excel sheet which has the results of 29,000+ races from the past two years, just using the filters you can check every RP standard time + lbs.per length for every racecourse and distance.

Times: http://tinyurl.com/bvjmkvg

[Posts: 1086Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

If you're calculating your own speed figures, i guess the correct name might help - i assume you're talking about Penny's Picnic ?


Is it heading to Ascot, do we know ?

[Posts: 3635Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Blues Brother,

By any chance did you rate the maiden at Navan yesterday won by Cristoforo Colombo? I thought he looked a really nice type.

[Posts: 1086Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

Blues Brother,

By any chance did you rate the maiden at Navan yesterday won by Cristoforo Colombo? I thought he looked a really nice type.

Has to be a Coventry type.

[Posts: 15Joined: 21 Feb 2011, 18:22]

Hey Blues Brother just wondering do i need some extra software to open your rating files?cant seem to open them and would really like to

[Posts: 491Joined: 26 May 2009, 19:28Location: Swindon]

Hey Blues Brother just wondering do i need some extra software to open your rating files?cant seem to open them and would really like to

The ratings are in a .rar file, so you need Winrar of the free utility called 7-zip, you right click on the file and extract.

http://www.7-zip.org/

[Posts: 491Joined: 26 May 2009, 19:28Location: Swindon]

Blues Brother,

By any chance did you rate the maiden at Navan yesterday won by Cristoforo Colombo? I thought he looked a really nice type.

I gave him a rating of 60 which is above average for a first run but still 25lbs behind Penny's Picnic who tops my 2yo list

Top Ten:
Chantilly (FR) 30-Apr-12 Penny's Picnic (IRE) 85
Ascot 12-May-12 Cay Verde 79
Kempton (AW) 02-May-12 Lyric Ace (IRE) 79
Doncaster 19-May-12 Reckless Abandon 77
Salisbury 17-May-12 Ask The Guru 74
Doncaster 19-May-12 Annunciation 73
Chester 09-May-12 All Fur Coat 73
Bath 07-May-12 Sign Of The Zodiac (IRE) 73
Curragh (IRE) 07-May-12 Move To Strike (IRE) 73
Kempton (AW) 02-May-12 Chilworth Icon 73

[Posts: 3635Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Thanks Blues Brother, I wouldn't be surprised if he's one of Ballydoyle's better two year olds this season.

[Posts: 1566Joined: 04 Mar 2010, 10:15Location: Huddersfield]

Christofer Collumbus looked mightily impressive, 2 year by Henrythenavigator, ran last week.

Could see him being Coventry bound.

The Bolger horse Dawn Approach has looked very very good in two runs thus far. Nothing else particularly eyecatching bar the Godolphin filly from yesterday, half sister to Dubawi.

[Posts: 172Joined: 08 Jul 2008, 02:36]

Thought the name 'Penny's Picnic' rang a bell..........Mordin gave it a good write up in his column a few weeks ago under the headline 'Amazing Run by Penny's Picnic'

He reckons it's the best early season 2yo performance for years and 'a proper group one rating'............

[Posts: 7Joined: 17 May 2012, 17:13]

Following confusion regarding R.P standard times being adjusted, I emailed R.P asking why and when this happens, Dave Edward kindly sent a reply explaining that he would :-
‘normally update the standard times in time for the start of the Flat season but unfortunately my ever increasing work load meant it was not possible in time for this season.

Consequently I am updating them as each meeting comes up but hopefully by the end of May they will be finalised once and for all for this year.

Until then if you allow 3 or 4 days before compiling your own figs any 'changes' should be in the system and you will only have to do it once’.

Hope this is of use to some of you figure folks, I’m updating my figures as I go along e.g.

Doncaster correction
5F / 58.50 / 58.00 / 2 ½ LGH / 8.5 POINTS.
5.140Y / 67.60 / 67.40 / 1 LGH / 3 POINTS.
6F / 71.40 / 71.20 / 1 LGH / 2.8 POINTS.
6.110Y / 78.00 / 77.80 / 1 LGH / 2.5 POINTS.
7F / 85.00 / 74.20 / 4 LGH / 9.5 POINTS.
8F RND / 97.5 / 96.5 / 5 LGH / 10 POINTS.
8F SRT/ 98.50 / 97.40 / 6 LGH / 12 POINTS.

Dave Edwards is sending me a copy of the 2012 standard times once fully completed, I will list these’s on the forum when I receive them