Irish Derby

[Posts: 570Joined: 20 Nov 2010, 22:07]

An interesting technical situation here. We have the dead 8 antepost, with a heavily odds on fav, Camelot.

It may be that betting e/w on the other 7 horses is attractive at 1/5 odds a place, especially as there is a bit of doubt about Camelot's participation.Remember there is no rule 4 for antepost, nor alteration of place terms.

Unfortunately it's not clear which horses will turn up. Will Astrology oppose Camelot again? Has Parish Hall recovered from injury? Will Imperial Monarch be ready to run again?

Media coverage seems very thin. Does anyone know the likely line up?

[Posts: 4053Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Sacramento,CA.]

Difficult to get interested without knowing the line up which will probably consist of six from Aidan,one from Bolger and one from Weld,one from Harrington and one from Prendergast.Trouble is Aidan could probably fill the first three spots.

[Posts: 3653Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

I've been thinking the same thing Kasparov. I'm guessing Ballydoyle won't run the three of them, but if we knew which of Astrology or Imperial Monarch was going to run we'd have a cracking e/w bet, as the race looks like it could cut up quite badly.

A word of warning though, Kasparov: Oddschecker may only have eight priced up but there are still 88 colts entered.

[Posts: 1571Joined: 04 Mar 2010, 10:15Location: Huddersfield]

Light Heavy won the Derrinstown in impressive fashion in my eyes, and given he is a definite runner (barring injury) the ante post price of 14/1.

[Posts: 12581Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

I've been thinking the same thing Kasparov. I'm guessing Ballydoyle won't run the three of them, but if we knew which of Astrology or Imperial Monarch was going to run we'd have a cracking e/w bet, as the race looks like it could cut up quite badly.

A word of warning though, Kasparov: Oddschecker may only have eight priced up but there are still 88 colts entered.

At double figure odds I'll probably be interested in Imperial Monarch ew once I know he is a definite runner. But with best prices of the 8 runners quoted adding up to over 130%, + all those others still entered on top of that...

You're right to advise caution THM.
It's not a good each way race yet.

Presumably one of Astrology amd Imperial Monarch will run here and the other in the Grand Prix De Paris. Treasure Beach and Seville went for both last year, race coming too soon for the former.

[Posts: 570Joined: 20 Nov 2010, 22:07]

I don't think 130% is too bad if you can eliminate likely non-runners and there isn't anything very fast amongst the unquoted horses. If, as you suggest, at least one of the Ballydoyle runners will drop out then the overround on the non-Ballydoyles looks ok and may be an underround on the place portion of e/w.

[Posts: 12581Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

I don't think 130% is too bad if you can eliminate likely non-runners and there isn't anything very fast amongst the unquoted horses. If, as you suggest, at least one of the Ballydoyle runners will drop out then the overround on the non-Ballydoyles looks ok and may be an underround on the place portion of e/w.

Of course there are prices available now that will look good come off time Kasparov. But unless you're connected to Coolmore, there's no way of knowing which horse will run. So (imo) anyone not "in the know" has to consider it too risky. We don't even know if Camelot will run yet. Are Coolmore keeping him in there to frighten off the opposition and then run both Astrology and Imperial Monarch?

[Posts: 1861Joined: 25 Jul 2011, 05:04]

I'd have thought that was exactly the plan. having finished 3rd in the Derby if Astrology could add the Irish Derby to his resume his shed value would soar whereas it wouldn't add 10 p to Camelot's.

Can't see AOB not trying to win the race but if Astrology has progressed I could see him not running Camelot.

[Posts: 570Joined: 20 Nov 2010, 22:07]

Looks like Astrology will run at Ascot in the Edward VII.

[Posts: 715Joined: 24 Apr 2008, 02:19Location: durham]

I had a dream last night that i played kasparov in a blitz tournament in moscow, and won

camelots form was let down yesterday but he still looks a cut above anything likely to line up here.

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

I had a dream last night that i played kasparov in a blitz tournament in moscow, and won

camelots form was let down yesterday but he still looks a cut above anything likely to line up here.

Admittedly Astrology did not give his running but assuming Thought Worthy ran pretty much to his Derby and Fairway Stakes form, Camelot is still well in advance of his contemporaries.

[Posts: 4053Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Sacramento,CA.]

Many of the Ballydoyle horses ran poorly at Ascot.SYT was pointed to his race and he lived up to his good rep.Aidan don't seem to hav as many good 2yos as formerly.

[Posts: 3653Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

I'm expecting a big run from Speaking Of Which in this. The more the ground dries out the better for him. I wonder if Ballydoyle will run both Imperial Monarch and Camelot.