Stage 1: The Trench & Art of Mining

[Posts: 257Joined: 09 Jun 2012, 14:35]

This thread will be used in conjunction of a Daily Lays & Plays thread.

The idea of this thread is to illustrate the work a professional racing enthusiast goes through in order to filter away for crumbles of gold.

I've likened this thread to a Trench, sometimes I do feel you're under fire constantly by fellow enthusiasts in a battle of attrition to gain loyalty, respect and leadership qualitaties that drives the pack.

Whilst the work may be artistic in it's design or approach many in my shoe will understand that it's probably the most tiring, back breaking and excruciating load of digging through numbers, notes, videos etc.

We're underestimated in our approach to betting, we're considered a minority who go against original values of finding a 9-5 because we know what can be made, we are a brave bunch of souls who live our lives the way we want to fighting a daily battle against human nature.

This thread shall be used to dig, dig, dig and find the gold that can bring our bank statements into fruition our brave souls deserve.

[Posts: 257Joined: 09 Jun 2012, 14:35]

NOCTURN 3-yo colt / Jeremy Noseda

I stumbled across this horse when going over the Newbury card on the 26th of May. This son of Oasis Dream finished 4/13 beaten 6.25 lengths although that doesn't illustrate the full story despite showing remarked improvement from his debut run.

The race at Newbury was slowly run with a strong finish indicating the leaders quickened quite impressively off a slow pace making it extra hard for those in behind to make an impression although Nocturn was able to run on stoutly from the rear indicating immense promise.

I'd fancy this horse especially in a Handicap.

[Posts: 257Joined: 09 Jun 2012, 14:35]

DREAMILY 2-yo filly / Mark Johnston
A daughter of New Approach who made her debut at Haydock over 6f on lovely good ground at the beginning of June showed plenty of promise in a race that saw the leading quartet go off a strong pace, tracked out wide with no cover on an unfavoured part of the ground she was upsides the testing gallop with the more experienced Newstead Abbey and lasted longest of those who set the early pace before they stopped towards the finish allowing the held up horses to go past in eye catching fashion.
I’m inclined to take the horses that worked strongest upside the pace and Mark Johnston’s filly was very clearly green at stages and worked alongside a good companion in Newstead Abbey finishing just shy of 0.25l off him at the finish which looks a promising effort on debut despite the 6.25l beating from the initial more flattening winner and placed horses.

FRIENDSINLOWPLACES 3-yo Gelding / Evan Williams
Made his debut earlier this year at Ripon over a mile in soft ground but in truth there wasn’t much strength in depth although the pace was very slow and they’ve finished slower but that plays into the strengths of Friendsinlowplaces who was pretty much tailed off entering the straight found his fair share of trouble in running but stayed on stoutly throughout the straight and never looked like stopping.
The horse was then trained by David Barron but is now in the keeping of Jumps trainer Evan Williams who’s no slouch when it comes to parting with his money and with the turn of foot this horse has shown he should be a lethal proposition in Novice Hurdles.

SACRILEGE 7-yo Gelding / Daniel O’Brien
The tough experienced Sacrilege has to enter the notebook after his recent flat effort at Newmarket’s July course Friday last week, renowned for his exploits over both codes he’s been on a lull recently falling 20lbs over hurdles since switching to Daniel O’Brien before winning at Fontwell recently backed up by this effort at Newmarket.

He tracked a strong pace set by Cairanne, both horses were effectively running alone in their own space with the rest of the field poised in behind seemingly advantaged by the front two’s tactics, as the leader weakened approaching the final furlong you’d of expected Sacrilege to go the same way although despite his energy exertions out in front he really seized the opportunity to run strongly mounting a fair challenge to finish 3rd.

This horse looks like he’s ready to go the right way eventually and he did hang to the rail at Newmarket with the Blinkers fitted and has actually refused to race with them on whilst winning five out of seven times with Cheekpieces and won recently with first time visors, a quirky horse but it would be interesting to see how a change in headgear might keep him interested.

[Posts: 257Joined: 09 Jun 2012, 14:35]

My notebook from video replays on June 15th.

SHANROD (54) 6-yo gelding / Mick Halford
This horse looks to have been given an interesting ride by apprentice Mr Monaghan who tried to pull the neck of the horse when breaking from the stalls then rousted him along to chase the leaders which sees him come off the rail about 6f from home to travel 3 wide into the straight before dropping to last refusing to give his mount an effort before the last of the rear quartet in Kaprun had bypassed his mount which resulted in a hefty back hander that saw the horse stay on in the closing stages for 5th.

WINDSOR PRIDE (51)3-yo gelding / Wayne McCreery
Nothing had really made ground along the far rail all evening so the draw wasn’t that great an advantage although the winner looked to have won with a fair bit in hand there was a very good pace set by Flaring Forth who isn’t without credit here but Windsor Pride tracked that pace despite being a little keen and showed a good turn of foot to come clear from the pack in behind and the pace setter to mount a solid challenge where he stuck there fighting at the one pace.

DAYRINA (50) 3-yo filly / Jim Bolger
This wouldn’t be Jim Bolger’s greatest project although I doubt he’s seen her produce a better effort after Kevin Manning gave her a ride she’ll feel in the morning which might turn her laziness into something more productive in the future. The pace was set strong early doors from Manning who was stalked by eventual second Sophie’s Echo with the race set up for those in behind, as she came to the rail inevitably those in behind passed although if you keep your eye on her she’s actually fought back up the rail past those who came upsides her in the straight showing there is something in her that wants to win.

SPECIAL TIARA (-) 5-yo gelding / Henry De Bromhead
I was quite taken by this horse’s performance on just his third run of his career especially by his jumping technique over some of his hurdles but he began to get sloppy during the latter stages. What caught my eye was how positive from the front the jockey was in setting a good solid pace before slowing it down and then again stretching out the field quite impressively before being caught by the eventual winner who was tucked away in midfield throughout the race.

ROMAN CAVALRY (-) 5-yo gelding / Mouse Morris
Not one of Gigginstown’s finest of thoroughbreds yet but he does look a horse that’s very much work in progress needing plenty of time and he’s one I picked out from Special Tara’s race where he travelled up with the pace before being left for a turn of foot entering the straight at which point his race had finished but notably the horse was still coming home fair enough under hands n heels whilst closing a little on the wide margin placing’s and should be much better over two and half or three miles but certainly looks more of a chasing type.

FRANKIE FLOWERS (92) 7-yo gelding / Phillip Fenton
Nice run from Frankie Flowers who travelled up against the rail that turned out to be quite a bad strip of ground with jockey’s avoiding it at all costs throughout the meeting although Brian O’Connell travelled smoothly under the rail for much of the race when he made a beeline for coming as wide as possible around a weakening runner with 4f to go by then the winner by then had taken an 8 length advantage and the horse come home strongly without much pressure to reduce the lead to around 6l in 4th – this should be a good thing next time out.

SPOKE TO CARLO (84) 3-yo colt / Eve Johnson Houghton
Now this was a taking performance in Maiden Company from a son of Halling who was tucked away in the rear by John Fahy off what looked a slow pace and his mount managed to find a sumptuous turn of foot under the rail to go away strongly without having to be asked for much. This is of course Maiden Company but I’d be amazed if the horse couldn’t run well again in a decent Handicap given he was a good 3rd behind Wrotham Heath at Epsom not so long ago and well supported on the day.

EDAS (58) 10-yo Gelding / Thomas Cuthbert
There was a frantic pace set by course specialist Oddsmaker who was a good 10 lengths clear from his rivals for much of the 12f trip but one horse that caught my eye was Edas who got caught a little bit wide early on before managing to find room in 4th but his jockey went for home a good 6f out when the horse was travelling really well and I thought this was far too soon although I understand that Oddsmaker did look like getting away from the field in the home straight but a little bit more patience with the tank Edas looked to have had on the day may of resulted in a win or place at least, beaten 9 lengths he should go down a few lbs for this and looks of a winnable mark.

CHAIN OF EVENTS (76) 5-yo gelding / Sarah Humphrey
This horse just loves Sandown Park where he loves to excel from the front with today being no different in fact it may have been his best performance to date. The jockey Jim Crowley made no hesitations in setting a good pace as he was clear of his rivals before winding it up slightly entering the home straight where he’s showed the ability to come clear again showing a decent turn of foot twice in one race as he saw off the solid Proud Chieftain by 4.5l who’s no slouch himself.
You couldn’t argue against this horse being as high as a 95-100 rated horse around here and in the past we’ve seen how Sandown specialists have a habit of upsetting the very best on the big days and it would be lovely to see this horse go in for the yard on Eclipse day if there’s a suitable target for them but one thing’s for sure I wouldn’t bet against this being his last win of the season.

TANGHAN (-) 2-yo colt / Richard Fahey
I think this horse will have caught everyone’s imagination after finishing second behind stable mate Flyman and deservedly so as Tanghan was settled towards the rear before challenging in the heat of the battle staying on strongly past the field to come clear with the winner and the third placed horse and in doing so showing a lovely attitude.

LORDOFTHEHOUSE (89) 4-yo gelding / William Haggas
Quite a large sort who made his move early on in the race to travel three wide in a leading trio before being bypassed in the straight to only stay on again to get within 2 lengths of the eventual winner before being outpaced and eased down towards the line in 5th.
I suspect the horse is far better than the 11.25l defeat suggests especially as he wasn’t helped by his jockey Chris Catlin moving very early on in the race to force the pace and he should be suited to this trip or further.

MERCHANT OF MEDICI (93)7-yo gelding / Jim Golide
Good old Merchant Of Medici seems to be such a frustrating horse these days who hasn’t been helped by the Handicapper given his willing nature and it has been a while since he’s run like a high 90’s horse but I do believe that there were a lot of positive signs to take away from the race.
The horse travelled into the straight strongly like the old Merchant we know and he was still pitching there 2-3 furlongs out but he blew up quickly with his jockey understanding all was gone resulting in an easing down of 24l to the winner.
There’s a good shout he could have been unfit for this race with now the eventual likelihood of dropping quite significantly in the weights on the horizon I see there being a very good opportunity around the corner to tune him up for a Handicap success on road to a tilt at a race such as the Ebor.

BEDLOW’S ISLAND (84) 7-yo gelding / Neville Bycroft
The 1st horse out of three I’m going to be taking out of the sprint at York and one who I was pleased with in terms of attitude, when pushed along in the rear from an early stage I was taken by how he responded for pressure up the stands rail which proved useless on the day and he could be ready to win stepped down in class.

MAYOMAN (87) 7-yo gelding / David O’Meara
A horse who could be over bet next time out but it was hard not to get away from the trouble he had in running despite travelling strongly on the bridle he wouldn’t have caught the winners but if the Handicapper is willing to drop him for this then he could be a good thing next time out.

BLUE JACK (94) 7-yo gelding / Tom Dascombe
I think Tom will be slightly pleased with how Blue Jack performed in this sprint which was set up to suit him perfectly although he doesn’t seem to be the same horse of old there was signs of improvement in how he came through and around horses into 7th way out under the far rail for William Twiston-Davies.

ARGANIL (91) 7-yo gelding / Kevin Ryan
A strange race that unfolded throwing up a shock 20-1 winner although I do feel there are some positives to take for Arganil who was dropped out towards the rear a good 15 lengths of the leaders throughout sighting an impossible task for Phillip Making entering the final 3 furlongs and he let the horse come home well in good time – I feel there are better opportunities over 6f on faster ground or reverting back to the all weather with a bit of luck the Ryan team will see him dropped for this.

SPACE WAR (85) 5-yo gelding / Michael Easterby
The Knavesmire with 20 runners spread across the track has a habit of swallowing up horses at their peril but less can be said for Space War who missed the kick resulting in David Simmonson never really having a comfortable positioning who had to scrub along throughout the race although to the horses credit he put up a brave display down the centre of the track bullying past beaten horses admittedly at the one paced but it was a sign that can only be taken as a positive for the yard given his recent displays on the racecourse.

[Posts: 257Joined: 09 Jun 2012, 14:35]

16TH JUNE

HUZZAH (58) 7-yo gelding / Paul Howling
Quite a high class handicapper back in the day but he has fallen down the weights having last past the post first in 2008, today he done everything but win having travelled detached away in the rear off an even pace he cantered around his field about 6 or 7 wide resulting in a lung bursting effort in an attempt to win, desperately Huzzah was caught out in a tight three way finish to come third.

MR FICKLE (65) 3-yo colt / Gary Moore
Very much in the same bracket as Huzzah although he had the rail to save himself ground but that wasn’t much of an aid when you’re struggling to find a gap with the race running away from you although he kept on well towards the finish and can count himself unlucky, there would want to get this one out again soon.

CLEAR SPRING (51) 4-yo gelding / John Spearing
This horse has to be put up in the notebook purely on the basis he looks well ahead of his mark winning this race off 51 but he never looked in trouble as John Spearing’s gelding made all the running, this was a hard task over the distance on this ground but Clear Spring never looked like stopping at any point during the race with his field struggling 2f out.

SILVER SAMBA (62) 3-yo filly / Andrew Balding
Second run in a Handicap for this grey filly who was caught out in the rear behind a very tactical pace, it was quite clear early on that she was needing a stronger gallop as Simon Pearce was pumping along quite early on but give her credit because she never gave up despite looking hard work and I’m sure this horse could win off this mark.

CASH INJECTION (51) 3-yo gelding / Karen George
The best traveller in the race was Cash Injection who has shown nothing to date although cruising towards the rear he came a wide route into contention entering the straight but there really wasn’t anything happening quickly despite a low weight, I think he’s definitely shown his recent form and mark isn’t a accurate reflection of his reasonable ability and could be a big price next time out.

PAHENTE (46) 4-yo gelding / Tony Carroll
The winner Bute Street was given a “Bute” of a ride from jockey William Carson leaving those in behind struggling from some way out with many of these lacking the turn of foot required in such circumstances but it was interesting at how late Darren Egan decided to leave his challenge, turning into the straight he really wasn’t in a hurry but fair dues to the horse who really did stick to his task closing on well right up towards the finish line.

DISTURBIA (46) 4-yo filly / Olivia Maylam
This filly has a Black Caviar record 18-0 accept that’s losses and not wins but something yesterday left me with the feeling she’s run a little bit better than her mark of 46 given that she travelled towards the rear of a sedate pace travelling 6 wide for her challenge she’s drifted right towards the far rail weaving through midfield suggesting she got a little bit tired – I assume she could be worth a chance next time out.

MAJESTIC RED (-) 2-yo filly / Malcolm Saunders
This horse has to go in the notebook simply for the reason that she was never travelling at any stage throughout the race with jockey Tom McLaughlin realising quite early on from a rear position that something wasn’t quite right and he never got serious with the horse but finished with running up the far rail – remains a horse worth another chance especially in Nurseries.

BORIS GRIGORIEV (85) 3-yo gelding / Michael Easterby
This was a race which sprung a surprise in Shoolan who left the field strung out at wide margins which was partly down to the toe in he got from Nameitwhatyoulike who set a fierce pace leaving the rest of the field near the stands rail relying on Pea Shooter for a gallop into the race which never happened but what did transpire was how far clear Boris Grigoriev came clear of his pack to mount some form of late challenge – This horse is by no means anything special but with soft ground form in Ireland and slowly dropping down the weights his performance here will be somewhat marred by the wide margins and should be a cert in this ground soon.

SECRETORI (-) 2-yo colt / Mathew Salaman
If you’re looking for a typical two-year old introduction then look no further than the drifting Secretori who could quite have possibly gone close in this race if he was ready for his outing with Shane Kelly giving him a perfect insight into a day on the racetrack guiding him throughout and you get the feeling if he squeezed this horse it would have been a different story.

TULLIUS (108) 4-yo gelding / Andrew Balding
This isn’t a tip for the notebook but more of an observation with Tullius who I have to say really impressed me from his paddock enthusiasm at York today and his personality, energy and excitement for racing is simply a sight to behold and Andrew Balding has a lovely horse on his hands who I hope goes far for connections.

MAMBO SPIRIT (70) 8-yo gelding / Tony Newcombe
Old boy Mambo Spirit might be booking himself a visit to the winners enclosure soon as he was held up of an even gallop in this sprint where he caught endless amounts of trouble at a vital stage in the race and had to mount a very wide challenge up the stands rail with him eating the ground up in front of him and could have won on another day – If the Handicapper was to put him up a few lbs I’d still assume he could run close to winning.

DIAMOND VINE (69) 4-yo gelding / Ron Harris
Hard to believe he’s only 4 years old but Diamond Vine was very wide for much of the race which wouldn’t have suited but he would have given his punters on the day every hope of landing at least place money but in the end he was done out of the placing’s – Another one who looks good for a win.

[Posts: 4763Joined: 07 Oct 2002, 11:50Location: Scotland]

Interesting stuff Bruce .. is this like a horses to follow approach?

[Posts: 257Joined: 09 Jun 2012, 14:35]

Thanks Dave,

Well I wouldn't say follow them off a cliff to be exact but I'm sure they have run better than the bare result suggests and if you're a trader or punter I think in the long run backing these next time out should return a decent profit.