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my racing post naps table system

Discuss systems and methods and put up your system's selections
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Joined: 30 Jul 2010, 10:42
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chuckypud

Postby chuckypud on 02 Aug 2010, 00:06

this is a system i used to follow years ago when i gambled alot which gave me alot of winners but mostly short priced ones .
i have been looking at it again since the 24 th june 2010 when i found myself havin a few bets again .

the system is to look at the naps table tipsters competetion in the racing post every day and make a note of any horses that get napped 3 or more times and back these horses .
they normally are well fancied favourites and are highly regarded horses , two year olds and three year olds that do tend to have good seasons .
these are the results so far after 39 days .
124 selections
56 winners giving a strike rate of 45 %
and staking £1 on each selection has give a profit of £57.05.
alot of the selections that dont win do tend to come 2nd alot and some run no race at all but do seem to win next time out .
what i like about this system is that its the tipsters giving me the horses to back and its their best bet of the day and more than 3 have to agree on this horse for me to consider it.
it doesnt work so well when the big meetings are on like goodwood last week and hadnt give me a winner tuesday, wednesday or thursday at all.
as i said most of the selections are favourites and out of those 124 horses 30 have been odds on at s.p and 21 have won. thats a strike rate of 70 %
43 of the horses were even money to 2/1 at s.p and 26 won , a strike rate of 60%
leaving 51 horses that were 9/4 upwards of which 9 won a strike rate of 17.6% which does bring the overall strike rate down alot .
of the 73 horses that had a s.p of 2/1 or under 47 won giving a strike rate of 64%.
so you can see the figures so far are good for short price favourite backing .

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orangefleece

Postby orangefleece on 02 Aug 2010, 00:48

Nice work Chucky and some very impressive figures once its broken down ...

i like the look of betting the selection that are below 9/4 ....i know the profits aren't too great but winners are winners ....thats all that counts ( and profits of course :mrgreen: )
Come on Ilson

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chuckypud

Postby chuckypud on 02 Aug 2010, 02:05

thankyou for the feedback orangefleece,
it does occasionally give a big price winner in the big races like evens and odds at 20/1 on saturday was napped 3 times in the big sprint and sea lord on friday at 6/1 had 5 naps and arabian star at newbury yesterday at 11/2 had 3 naps but as the figures show most bigger prices selections dont come in .
these are tomorrows selections :

2.15 ripon maiden : SQUIRES GATE 3 naps 2/5 lost at 1/4

2.45 ripon seller : OONDIRI 3 naps 7/4 lost at 6/4

3.15 ripon handicap : SARRSAR 11 naps 11/10 lost at 4/5

6.10 windsor maiden : NATIVE PICTURE 4 naps 4/6 won at 6/5

7.40 windsor maiden : PICKWICK 4 naps 5/4 n/r

these prices are the best available at the moment. as usual they are maiden races mostly . sarrsar is heavily napped but that doesnt mean it will definately win as workforce received 8 naps to win the king george and harbinger only one nap and we all know what happened there and have also seen a 10 napped horse not win either so i won't get carried away with sarrsar although the form was franked by start right at goodwood last week so can see why its fancied
Last edited by chuckypud on 02 Aug 2010, 22:30, edited 2 times in total.

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orangefleece

Postby orangefleece on 02 Aug 2010, 05:37

Chucky , can i ask if its not too much trouble to calculate, what are the figures for 4 tipsters selection ...just wondering how more dramatic the % will be....
James (orangefleece)
Come on Ilson

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billion

Postby billion on 02 Aug 2010, 10:12

What a couple of Night-Owls you two are, sleeping is allowed you know.

Thanks for posting the system chuckypud, it certainly is good to have some fresh thinking here on Ward 7.

I have a very good friend who simply follows favourites only and has for a long while been trying to convince me to follow that route which I have been doing so of late and to my surprise am showing a profit but only with low stakes on multiple bets.

If I may ask, can you say on how many days (from the small amount of data you have) have you had more than one winner i.e. double or even trebles.

This is of course the very best time of year for favourite winners, and can you remember how it performed (roughly) out of high summer?

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chuckypud

Postby chuckypud on 02 Aug 2010, 10:20

james , i've looked at what you said and these are the figures counting up how many selections received four naps or more .
58 selections
30 winners
51 % strike rate


out of those 58 selections, 18 were 9/4 or over and 5 won , a strike rate of 27.7 %

leaving 40 selections napped 4 times or more and 2/1 or under at s.p.
25 winners
62.5 % strike rate
which is good and only slightly better than the overall figures for all selections 2/1 or under .
so i think we can conclude a horse being napped more than 3 times doesnt make much difference to its probability of winning anymore than a horse napped three times .

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billion

Postby billion on 02 Aug 2010, 10:30

I shall have another go at posting the first disappeared somewhere into the ether.

What a couple of night-owles you both are, sleeping is allowed you know.

Anyway chuckypud thanks for posting your system it is good to have some fresh thinking here on Ward 7 (as it is known).

A good friend on mine only ever bets on favourites and has at last got me to follow his doctrine which to my surprise has delivered a profit but only with the use of multiple bets.

Can you tell from your small sample how many days it has delivered doubles or trebles?

We also must take into account this is much about the very best time of year for favourite backers but can you remember, roughly, how it fared during the main body of the year?

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billion

Postby billion on 02 Aug 2010, 10:32

Sometimes I simply want to give up with computers

:oops: :oops: :oops:

I will blame it on the dongle :evil:

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chuckypud

Postby chuckypud on 02 Aug 2010, 10:38

hey billion ,
out of the 39 days of following this system again , ive had 6 days where all selections won , 3 trebles and 3 doubles . it hasnt happened enough for me to back the selections this way and only have done so once or twice when i really liked all the selections and luckily one time they did all come in but only returned 7/1.
i have no figures from when i did this in the past but i do remember keeping figures on favourites winning and it was around 33% strike rate .

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billion

Postby billion on 02 Aug 2010, 10:48

Another posting shot off into the stratosphere !!!!

Thanks for your reply chuckypud, you are very kind.

If you continue to post I shall watch with interest.

Good luck.

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chuckypud

Postby chuckypud on 02 Aug 2010, 10:52

hey billion ,
most days it gives 3 , 4 ,5 ,6 selections and of these 2 ish win , in the last 39 days 6 trebles days and 19 double days . and 7 days where no selections won and 3 of those being tues wed thurs last week and the others being ascot and a couple of saturdays .
i can see all your posts billion.

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billion

Postby billion on 02 Aug 2010, 11:05

Staking is always an all important way to either ensure a profit or even compound it.

Looking at your figures chuckypud I do wonder if it would suit a Stop At A Winner staking.

Sadly I don't know if it possible via the internet but very possible in the offices.

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chuckypud

Postby chuckypud on 02 Aug 2010, 11:54

i'm not familiar with that method of betting , could you explain it more .
i tend to look at each race and decide if i think the selection is going to win and try to improve my strike rate that way .
like todays selctions , squires gate is very short now so wont back that singularly but may in a double with native picture in the 6.10 .
out of the others oondiri doesnt appeal much because of the 12 runners and its a seller so not really a horse on the upgrade, sarrsar's form looks solid so will back that one and pickwick is in a race with 15 others so may leave that one alone too.

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