Gingers Flat Winners

[Posts: 12293Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

2:40 Newbury
28 points @ 11/2 (b365) Rimth
7 points @ 9/2 (SJ) Pontenuovo

[Posts: 12293Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

2:05 Newbury
58 points @ 13/8 (b365) Verdant

Might save on the only front runner, Poet, if he looks fit in the paddock (big sort, takes some readying). Though he's probably better on softer anyway.

[Posts: 12293Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

2:05 Newbury
-58 Verdant
-58 points deficit

2:40 Newbury
-7 Pontenuovo 4th
28 points @ 13/2 (bog) Rimth 1st Return 210 points
(35)
+175 points profit

Staked 93 points
Return 210 points
Total Profit 117 points

[Posts: 50Joined: 04 Jul 2010, 10:32]

lovely winner with Rimth mate, though I must admit that I've never been all that taken with Verdant, fingers burnt last year, can still feel the blisters

[Posts: 12293Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Yes Diamond, Verdant does seem to have two ways of running. Disappointed in him on course, not as big as some in the field and coat looked a bit dull. Stoutey not hit form yet this season. Am confident Verdant will eventually prove the best of that substandard field for the John Porter.

There isn't much of Rimth either, but her coat was shining and is a ball of muscle.

Frankel looked well in the paddock, but quite a bit to work on. Gumm chain used to keep his exhuberance in check. Relaxed walking around. Still pulled in the race, but hopefully this will get the freshness out of him. Certainly a very good looking colt. As wil be his stable companion World Domination, once filling his frame. Bit weak and cabbage like in the prelims I thought. Constant winnieing. Considering his greeness and paddock appearance it was a mightily impressive debut. Bred to win the Derby too. However, 8 or 7/1 is skinny for any maiden winner having his first start less than 2 months from the big one.

I prefer.....

[Posts: 12293Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Epsom Derby:
26 points @ 10/1 (b365 bog) Seville

Seville had no right to do as well as he did as a two year old. In a short space of time, making his debut on 25th September. Reaching Group 1 level when a close second in the Racing Post within a month. Breeding suggests will not come in to his own until running over 1m4f+. By Galileo out of Arc 8th Silverskaya who won at 1m4f. Her sire Silver Hawk is a stamina influence, responsible for such as Mubtaker, Mutafaweq and Benny The Dip. Silver Hawk's sire Roberto won the Derby. Maternal grand-dam's sire Niniski an even greater stamina influence of Arc (Hernando) and St Leger (Minster Son) winners. Fact he came so close in a good ground Racing Post suggests he'll have enough speed too.

[Posts: 97Joined: 29 Dec 2010, 23:37]

Hi Ginger

Would you be looking at your tip for the derby as a long term tip possibly for the leger as well.

Looking at the breeding, and this race being in relative terms less fashionable, and potential possibilities re frankel (Think he'll be a 10f horse and a mighty one at that ... but the STS was prob best at this distance and still won both a derby and the arc!!) a longer term bet on the leger would appeal to me more at this moment in time...though having said that I need to look into entries. Don't know how this works for this race having never considered an Ante post bet on this race (Leger) so far in advance!!!

yorkiedips

[Posts: 12293Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Hi Yorkie,

Yes, if I were making a book on the Leger, Seville would be my favourite. Trouble is if (as I expect) up to Derby standard, he won't be going for the Leger. Sadly, only if failing at 1m4f will he be upped in trip. Has a Derby winner run in the Leger since Reference Point? Would not bet in the Yorkshire Classic until after the Derby, probably even after the Irish Derby.

[Posts: 12293Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

3:45 Sandown
45 points @ 9/2 (WH bog) Music Show
11 points @ 4.9/1 (betfair) Cityscape
7 points @ 8.4/1 (betfair) Dream Eater

Backing 3 horses in a 5 horse race may seem a bit strange. But I make the race:

Dick Turpin 42% 11/8
Music Show 23.5% 100/30
Cityscape 21% 4/1
Dream Eater 13.25% 13/2
Highland Knight 0.25% 400/1

Don't see why Dick Turpin should be so far in front of the rest.

[Posts: 3566Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

I'd make Dick Turpin a 4/7 shot myself Ginge, guess that's what it's all about!

If we all came to the same conclusions there wouldn't be any betting

[Posts: 12293Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Dick Turpin won first time up at both 2 and 3, but ditto Music Show. Both stay a mile and go well on a firm surface. So has Dick Turpin really got around 3 times the chance of Music Show, like the betting suggests? I don't think so. Channon has started the season well and won 4 of his last 13 starts. Hannon 2 from 13. So it just comes down to form.
Music Show's has had a break, after a busy season last year. Won the Falmouth on similar ground to tomorrow, form that on a line through Rainfall and Strawberrydaqueri, should have been good enough to win the Sun Chariot too. Although she herself was over the top by then. Also won the 1000 Guineas, well sort of, she won on her side of the track. Massively disadvantaged by the draw / running down the centre. Music Show was the moral victor.
Dick Turpin's form is a little better, against the colts, but only a little. Won the Prix Jean Prat and his defeats were just as good. Placed in the Guineas; flattered in the Foret, only a length behind Goldicova, 1/2 length behind Paco Boy. Length second behind Canford Cliffs also sounds great, but only 3/4 length in front of Hearts Of Fire, illustrates Canford Cliffs improvement to come. Even so Dick Turpin has definitely got the best chance of winning, just not an odds-on chance.
Cityscape was the one improving at the back end, winning the Joel Stakes by no less than 7 lengths from Penitent. Exceptionally good looking individual who is now filling his frame, finally endorsing the potential of his earlier years. I backed him for the 2000 Guineas ante-post. Injured in that race. Trouble is, the Joel came on a soft surface and it is possible Cityscape needs cut to produce his best these days. However, did come a good 4th under top weight in a Newbury handicap on reappearance last year on a firm surface, given a lot to do on first start in ages. So there are reasons to be hopeful. If it were soft ground though, he'd be challenging for favouritism.
Dream Eater is inconsistent taking his over all form, but usually runs well early season. Flattered to finish so close to Goldicova and Paco Boy in the Queen Anne. Trouble free run when former went for home too early and latter had to wait for a gap. Usually travels well but sometimes finds little off the bridle. Has run well in this race before and goes well on a firm surface.
Forget the pacemaker.

[Posts: 12293Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

I'd make Dick Turpin a 4/7 shot myself Ginge, guess that's what it's all about!

If we all came to the same conclusions there wouldn't be any betting

Suppose it all depends if you believe the closeness of the Canford Cliffs / Goldicova / Paco Boy form THM.

If Dick Turpin wins I can still claim I was right, having the best chance of winning on my figures.

[Posts: 50Joined: 04 Jul 2010, 10:32]

help me here ginge, I've been trying to understand the odds tables, etc., and looking at the Dick Turpin race, I though he was at least a 75-80% chance of winning, which I make 1/3 - 1/4 odds, therefore, IMO, he's value at 4/5? Is my science correct, even if my conclusions are wrong?

Don't get me wrong, I'm not backing a 4/5 shot, I don't stake enough to make it worth it, but I have a couple of others today that I think are short prices but 'value' and will treble them up (Hamish McGonagall and Tataniano), I'd rather play all three and get 8s, than back them singles.

Gord.