Like you Ginger I reckon Giles Cross could start fav but not because the bookies think he’ll win but because they think he can’t win and if they make him short it will decrease their EW liability…he’s very likely to start a false price IMO and the best thing to do is ignore any would be gambles and back your own fancy
Oh I see, it’ll be a bookies conspiracy if Giles Cross is shortened.
I agree HGM, it is best to ignore gambles and "back your own" judgement. Which is why I have, backed horses (hopefully) before they shorten. I believe
IF
it is genuinely soft/heavy Giles Cross has the best chance of all the runners. Therefore on soft/heavy he should start favourite.
Actually – With another horse in the public eye (from the Gold Cup) and ridden by the Champion jockey (who won it a couple of years ago) and won SPOTY. I think it may be Synchronised who starts a "false price" favourite. Instead of the (imo) correctly priced second favourite.
Of course if it is genuinely good-soft Giles Cross does not deserve to be favourite, but should still be one of the favourites. If it’s good he should be around the 20/1 mark.
You honestly believe it’s good to soft? Be as soft as sh!t out there is my bet.
Sychronised winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup thrown in at the weights and ridden by AP McCoy on his beloved soft ground and you say he’s a false favourite…Your mad! 
They only way he will be beaten is if he jumps very badly or falls.he’ll win by a street length if he takes to these fences..Big if granted but he surely must start fav.
My point is false fav or big gambles are the name of the game in the National. Despite winning the National Don’t Push It was made favourite by the bookies and not just by weight of money something Rory Delargy pointed out after the race that year and if Betfair are anything to go by he was spot on.
You may recall I had been backing the horse for months at all rates from 60 down to 25 and when I saw the gamble at the course I logged into Betfair thinking I would lay of some of my bets. 2 Minutes before the off he was still 22 on Betfair and he was 10’s and 12’s on the course and I let my cash role to back him in running but ended up so excited I never.
The next day some bookies reckoned it cost them 3 million quid the lying bastids. When JP backs one to win a fortune everyone knows about it………I no of no big win in the millions and I would have heard something if it was the case.
The bookies thought he wouldn’t stay but the jp AP combination made it easy to sucker people in and it backfired on them.
Hegehunter is probably one of the few horse who was genuinely gambled into fav and won. Complie or Die started fav but how much of that was due to genuine cash placed is very debatable. Lots more have been subject to gamble on the day and left trainers and jockeys scratching their heads wondering why.
You can bet something will be backed of the boards on Saturday and there’s every chance it will not even come close to winning.
Wait till they find out AP is switching to Sunnyhillboy 
he NOT but it would start some fun if he did