US election prediction betting on Intrade is basically free money. It’s a very different system than any others I’ve seen, like a stock market for election outcomes (or game wins, TV show results, etc.) For example, right now Romney’s Intrade odds to win Kentucky in this upcoming election are at about 86%. KY is a guaranteed super-duper Republican stronghold when it comes to national elections, so as the election approaches its odds will go close to 100% and its price will skyrocket. Buy "stock" in Romney Wins Kentucky while it’s low, sell high in a few weeks. Cha-ching.
This was quite fun in the last election when John McCain’s campaign essentially collapsed in mid-2007 and stayed low for quite some time. People who kept that stock and sold it in August 2008 when he was at the height of his polling numbers made thousands of dollars.
There doesn’t seem to be much liquidity on Intrade at the moment with beer money available at 86%. Over here, Betfair offer the Dems at 8.2/1 for Kentucky (also for peanuts), so the percentage vaguely tallies between the two.
There is a risk though. Kentucky has a decent history of voting in Democrats, most recently Clinton in 1992 & 1996 which is hardly ancient history. Generally rural and largely white, it should be Republican and has been
very
much so in recent years, but if Romney insists on putting his foot in it at every opportunity his campaign could implode.
Betfair are now 1.3 Obama 4.0 Romney, a marked shift from the 1.6/2.5 of a couple of weeks’ ago.
Mike