HKJC website has a Q and A section, including:
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Why are late finishers suitable for fast run races?
There are limitations to the speed and stamina of racehorses. Thoroughbreds can maintain their highest speed for no more than 400 metres. Those that run too fast in the early stages of a race will burn themselves out. Conversely, those that run slow early on have enough energy to quicken up in the latter part of the race.
The 1600-metre Sha Tin Trophy (Group 3) held on 21 October 2001 was a good example of how late finishers are suited to fast run races. The time taken to finish the first 1200 metres was 1.10.2 minutes which was 2.3 seconds faster than that of the 1600-metre Yan Chai Trophy (Class 2) just 30 minutes earlier.
However, the time taken to finish the last 400 metres of the Group 3 was 24 seconds whereas that of the Class 2 was only 22.7 seconds.
As the pace of the Group 3 was fast early on, those racing prominently such as Man Of Honor, Citizen Kane, Red Pepper and Oriental Express became exhausted after entering the straight, and it was the horses that settled off the early speed that had the greater finishing kick and filled the first three places.
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Why are front-runners suitable for slow run races?
Front-runners that can maintain their leading positions in slow pace throughout the race are able to save their energy for a late burst. However, runners that lag behind early have to run even faster than those in front if they want to catch up from the back. It is difficult for late finishers to catch the front-runners if the latter can maintain a high speed in the final stages.
For instance, front-runners that finish the final 400 metres in 23.5 seconds can only be caught if late finishers, which are behind by five lengths in the last 400 metres, can finish in 22.5 seconds or less. If the late finishers cannot reach that speed, usually they cannot win.
The Kagoshima Handicap, a 1800-metre Class 2 race, held at Sha Tin on 13 October 2001 best illustrates that front-runners are suitable for slow run races.
In this race, Turbojet led and covered the first 1400 metres in a slow 1.26.3 minutes. However, he finished the final 400 metres in just 22.7 seconds. Luckswell, another usual front-runner, had also taken advantage of the slow pace of the race and took second place.
Very few horses can finish the last 400 metres of a 1800-metre race in less than 22.5 seconds. Therefore Equikit, which caught up from the back, performed brilliantly in that race and took third place, losing by just a head.
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