Queen Mother Champion chase 2012

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

Not if you have enough data. Some trends a la 5yos can't win the Queen Mother, 6yos can't win the Gold Cup have zero data to support them because it just doesn't ever happen.

But a healthy 33 7yos have run in the Neptune in the past 11 runnings with only 3 placing.

[Posts: 3653Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Anyone any idea who Barry Gerathy will ride


He hasn't rode Big Zeb yet this season. I can understand him going to Kempton to ride Sprinter Sacre and Finians Rainbow at Christmas, and I suppose he had to go to Cheltenham for the Greatwood too when Big Zeb won at Navan. But unless Finians hacks up this weekend he'll surely stay loyal to Big Zeb, or will he have to ride the Henderson horse?

[Posts: 948Joined: 28 Feb 2011, 13:01]

Not if you have enough data. Some trends a la 5yos can't win the Queen Mother, 6yos can't win the Gold Cup have zero data to support them because it just doesn't ever happen.

But a healthy 33 7yos have run in the Neptune in the past 11 runnings with only 3 placing.

From 185 runners, a representation of under 18% . . . I don't particularly want to get into a long debate about it, just one of my pet hates from the stats/trends boys who said rule out Cap Cee Bee from Supreme as 7-y-o have awful record. When I did a bit of digging, (I fancied him), only about a dozen had run in the race in the previous decade. Still, I suppose it helps improve the price for those who don't run with the herd.

Age-based stats are worthless without adequate sample sizes.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

Yes I completely agree with you.

[Posts: 1086Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

I'm a little baffled by that statement, Boz. I agree with JJM, completely disagree that there's enough evidence to suggest he doesn't have enough class. I was amazed by the ability he showed to win last time out.

However, the same thing happened at Kempton last month as it did at Warwick in February. The moment he got swamped and surrounded by other horses, he put in poor jumps. Think he lacks concentration when he's not leading and with Sizing Europe, a horse who races very prominently, if not from the front, and Big Zeb, a horse who's now 11, losing speed and therefore likely to be ridden with more vigour, I'd be concerned about his jumping holding up. You just cannot afford a single mistake in the Queen Mum. Just think back to the past 8 or so runnings - Big Zeb, Kauto Star, Well Chief and Moscow Flyer all fell or unseated. The latter trio all short-priced favourites. Azertyuiop stumbled badly at the water jump, did well to finish 3rd. Master Minded did well to stay on his feet last year.

Can you think of any Arkle winners who made a mistake? Twist Magic, Don't Push It, Mad Max, Tatenen, Thisthatandtother...

Just takes one.

Moscow used to make mistakes at Cheltenham. Down the back before the dip.

[Posts: 120Joined: 18 Sep 2010, 23:13Location: Meath]

Barry will have to ride FR,he's retained by Nicky,Robbie Power will ride Big Zeb but Barry will get back up if FR is a non runner

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

Well I think it's fairly safe to now say that the Queen Mother is between only Sizing Europe and Big Zeb.

Somersby's just not quick enough, and if he's not quick enough, Finian's Rainbow's not quick enough. WIshfull Thinking finished nowhere.

[Posts: 1961Joined: 20 Feb 2006, 12:12Location: Bristol]

Well I think it's fairly safe to now say that the Queen Mother is between only Sizing Europe and Big Zeb.

Somersby's just not quick enough, and if he's not quick enough, Finian's Rainbow's not quick enough. WIshfull Thinking finished nowhere.

I backed Finian's Rainbow ew @ 8s at the start of the season. I wasn't convinced that Ascot would suit, but he travelled very well (as he always does) and I think come March, around Cheltenham, on better ground (hopefully) he can run a massive race.

I just wish that connections would insist holding onto him a bit longer in his races. I wouldn't be too keen on tackling Sizing Europe on the downhill descent, where the Irish horse will inevitably make his move.

He travels well and his jumping is becoming a marked weapon. There's no doubt he needs to improve, but I am confident he will be bang there turning in - his cruising speed and jumping will see to that.

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

Somersby's problem for the QM is not lack of pace but that it is run at Cheltenham not Ascot, similarly the more exacting nature of the Cheltenham's fences would dissuade one from regarding Finian's Rainbow as having a more than an each-way chance. They both beat Forpady by farther than Big Zeb did over Christmas though how reliable a yardstick he is I am not sure. The sedate early pace may de-value the form of the race but Al Ferof was definitely outpaced between the last 2 by two more seasoned campaigners. Having said that I didn't think Al Ferof travelled within himself at all during the race so he should be able to show himself to be better than today's effort but 2 miles might be a bit sharp for him already.

[Posts: 27Joined: 11 Apr 2010, 21:18]

I would be interested to hear what people's opinions are as to whether Somersby still goes for the Ryanair as I assume the plan was before the race or goes for the QM, as I see his odds for both shortened up dramatically after the race?

I saw Henrietta Knight said after the race that the Ryanair was still the target but does still have an entry for the QM

I think it would be a mistake to go for the QM, but I am talking somewhat through my pocket as I backed him at 20's last week along with Realt Dubh for the Ryanair. Just believe that it was his stamina and jumping which got him ahead of Finians today rather than speed which is much more of a necessity in the QM.

If anyone has an opinion on which race he'll be targeted on, rather than which one he has a better chance in, I'd be most interested.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

Well Somersby's run pretty much exactly the same race he ran last year I think. Certainly seems fair and logical to think that anyway. Hen said that she was worried about running him over 2m 1f in a an 8-runner race with no proper front-runners at Ascot, so I think he'd get taken off his feet at Cheltenham.

Geraghty's said Finian's needs to run over further.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

Michael Buckley - "He's been working more like a staying horse and if he does go for the Queen Mother it will be the last time he runs over two miles."

[Posts: 1086Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

I backed Finian's Rainbow ew @ 8s at the start of the season. I wasn't convinced that Ascot would suit, but he travelled very well (as he always does) and I think come March, around Cheltenham, on better ground (hopefully) he can run a massive race.

I just wish that connections would insist holding onto him a bit longer in his races. I wouldn't be too keen on tackling Sizing Europe on the downhill descent, where the Irish horse will inevitably make his move.

He travels well and his jumping is becoming a marked weapon. There's no doubt he needs to improve, but I am confident he will be bang there turning in - his cruising speed and jumping will see to that.

I'm convinced FR will be passed up the hill at Cheltenham as he doesn't have the stamina for a stiff 2 miles in Grade 1 company

He's the ideal horse to set it up for stronger finishers