It's the Meerkat - Seemples?

[Posts: 580Joined: 01 Oct 2011, 18:53]

Well done there Jack. I really wanted you to get a winner or two on the board. As you have stated, you are 60 years and deeper in this game, and for that reason alone you obviously can't be losing. I watch this thread more than any other, and will try and contribute when i feel i have a valide point. I even like your posts more than i like my own !

[Posts: 1427Joined: 22 Nov 2006, 20:55Location: UK Midlands]

Superman,
You are too kind - but it wasn't rocket science yesterday with 2 jollies and a second fav going in - just the old pattern of results syndrome.

Sticking with the polytrack again as there is no other option - I wonder if the snow will come in about 3.00? Same as yesterday just the top-rated Fineform:

Wolverhampton

2.25 Beneath
3.00 Drive Home (top-rated 20 today)
3.30 Crowning Star
4.05 Trip Switch
4.35 Al Freej
5.10 Gabrial's Bounty
5.40 Flow Chart

Does anyone still use conditional bets these days or are we all back-to-lay and stuff? I tried to employ such a bet in the mid-70's but not for long as William Hill's said head office will not accept the bet. It went like this:

4 selections with reasonable chances. The bet is 1 point stop-at-a-win down the card and 1 point stop-at-a-win UP the card. It means there is only 1 point on losers but 2 points on winners.

Today we could go/
Beneath
Drive Home
Trip Switch
Flow Chart

and/
Flow Chart
Trip Switch
Drive Home
Beneath

[Posts: 1427Joined: 22 Nov 2006, 20:55Location: UK Midlands]

Kempton a complete NH card without obstacles thta's novel - just trying to keep my spirits up.

Southwell by Fineform
1.20 Caledonia Prince
1.50 Clodhopper
2.25 Where's Reiley
3.00 Magic Millie (top-rated 20)
3.35 Zenarinda
4.10 Darsan
4.40 Ezra Church

How about a bit more nostalgia? Anyone recall the pocket-sized Sporting Investor magazine, 10p a month for syatems galore . In particular on the back page each time was a chart for doubles and trebles etc. It advised a reduced perm for 6 selections from 15 down to 6 bets with at least a double if three came in. Races 1-3, 1-6, 2-4, 2-5, 3-6, 4-5. Leaving out the short-proced Zenarinda we could attempt that at Southwell today

[Posts: 1427Joined: 22 Nov 2006, 20:55Location: UK Midlands]

No messing about today let's get back on the market trail at Musselburgh. These are the best rated Topspeed runners converted to guidline odds and mainly supported by form - let's call them RIGHTPRICE . Pricewise eat your heart out.

Musselburgh
3.10
Woody Waller 6/1
Safari Adventure 7/1
Lightening Rod 8/1
Quit Du Tresor 17/2
3.45
Stormy Weather 8/1 (an each-way bet at the odds if ever I saw one )
Zafranagar 8/1
Koup De Kanon 8/1
Dontpaytheferryman 17/2

[Posts: 1427Joined: 22 Nov 2006, 20:55Location: UK Midlands]

Reduced to NH bumpers at Southwell today what more can I say . Just best-rated Fineform in each race.

Southwell
1.15 Smadynium
1.45 Golden Call
2.15 Ophelia's Kiss
2.45 Tornado Bob
3.20 Afsoun
3.55 A Little Swifter
4.25 Glen Contess

[Posts: 1427Joined: 22 Nov 2006, 20:55Location: UK Midlands]

Racing is still in the doldrums so it's a case of 'Keep Calm and Carry On' as they used to advise during WWII .
I checked out the Wolverhampton 4.40 a 4yo+ apprentice hcap over 9.5f and personally I have not got a clue. Mind you I am not alone as RPR and Formcast rate the field within 3lbs but for one runner in each case. Timeform has Dubai Bounty, Reachforthebucks as the best of the short end of the betting forecast No's 1 (PatternForm has Sublime Talent well out in front on class and speed),2, 5, 6, 8. Draw advantage is said to be low so No's 10, 7, 1, 2, 3, 8 are favoured. Nothing much in change-of-weight carried where Dazzling Valentine looks to have a slight advantage. Have you got all that, me neither

In the end I just converted Topspeed's ratings to RIGHTPRICE guideline odds :

Wolverhampton 4.40

Opus Maximus 7/2
West End Lad 9/2
Dazzling Valentine 5/1

[Posts: 1427Joined: 22 Nov 2006, 20:55Location: UK Midlands]

This is my last post today hopefully I may sign off with the market proving its worth . Just Topspeed ratings converted to RIGHTPRICE guidline odds:

Ayr 3.25
Best Lover 95/40
Charingworth 11/4

[Posts: 580Joined: 01 Oct 2011, 18:53]

Are you throwing in the towel old timer ?

[Posts: 1427Joined: 22 Nov 2006, 20:55Location: UK Midlands]

Superman,

Throwing in the towel with Cheltenham on the horizon - no way Pedro I am just closing this thread as I can't just write for my own satisfaction. I still believe the most critical factor for the punter is strike-rate and odds. Look at Kelso today. Winners at 4/6, 5/4, 2/7, 5/4 who go make a go of that?

I will probably pop up elsewhere on the boards with trainers as I usually concentrate on the top flight for Cheltenham - even today it was Henderson x 3 and McCain.

au revoir

[Posts: 1427Joined: 22 Nov 2006, 20:55Location: UK Midlands]

Yes, it's me back for the summer season, a couple of posts anyway. Forum sites seem to be suffering in general with the alternatives now available but I have a soft spot for TRF and would like to see it survive into the future.

Me, I am still plugging away with any method that exploits the betting market. Currently I support up to three form possibles in a race to clear £20 on the winning selection. Each runner having its own £500 bank.

My race today is the Haydock 3.50 the feature race on the card. I have shown the current odds available and stake, which may need to be adjusted for the actual bet nearer the off time:

4. Number Theory 5/1 £4 (shortened to SP 7/2 won £6 = +£21)
5. Ittirad 9/2 £5 (SP 4/1 3rd £5)
7. Mica Mika 5/1 £4 (SP 7/1 £3)

(A profit on the race of £13)

[Posts: 1427Joined: 22 Nov 2006, 20:55Location: UK Midlands]

Site been down for me since my last post and I thought it was due to my usual ineptitude . Been mainly good results but one howler using this approach since the 13th.
A couple of caveats regarding the staking plan; No Bet in a race if any of the possible selections are not available at 2/1 or longer, or, if the total staking liability exceeds £20.
I found it difficult to choose a race today seeking a top class contest - swerving amateur riders, sprints, large fields, short odds. In the end I opted for the York 2.35 without a great deal of confidence as it looks pretty tight, with Daily Mail Formcast rating the field within 3lbs. More rain would confuse the issue even further IMO;

York 2.35 (note the odds will probably adjust and therefore the stake between now and the off time)

4. Hillview Boy 8/1 £3 (SP 8/1 lost £3)
9. Classic Colori 7/1 £3 (SP 11/2 lost £4)
11. Barren Brook 12/1 £2 (SP 8/1 lost £3)

Brought forward £13 - £10 lost today = +£3

[Posts: 1427Joined: 22 Nov 2006, 20:55Location: UK Midlands]

There is No Bet for me today as in the only UK mainland race of my choice the strong favourite looks set to go off at odds-on

Salisbury 4.00
3.Definightly 4.7 £6
6. Our Jonathon odds-on?
10. Arctic Jewel 14 £2

No point in looking for something that is not here so it's back to the Father's Day whisky -it's a hard life

[Posts: 1427Joined: 22 Nov 2006, 20:55Location: UK Midlands]

Second thoughts, if you want to go mad and burn your your money you could consider these Voodoo W possibles at Salisbury to my staking plan:

2.20 1. 2. (7/2won £6 = +£21 - £9 = +£11) 7.
2.50 2. (2/1won £10 = +£20 - £6 = +£14)5. 7.
3.25 3. 5. (7/4 no bet race) 6.
4.00 1. 3. 6.(13/8 no bet race)
4.30 3.8/1 £3)6. 5/1won £4 = +£20 - £3 = +£17)
5.05 1.(5/4 no bet race) 2. 5.
5.35 1.(10/3 £6) 2.9/2 £5) 7.(8/1 £3) (-£14)

The final result at SP £28 a return of over 53% on possible liability a fine return IMO

It's the whisky talking