RACING PLUS CHASE - KEMPTON

[Posts: 2Joined: 11 Nov 2010, 20:09]

As much as I'm a fan of POS, I reckon that the track will be far too tight for him and so can't have him at 5-1. I prefer Nacarat as these are his conditions, but 5-1 is again too short given his form so far this season.

Hector's Choice (ew) looks like the bet for me.

[Posts: 1101Joined: 25 Nov 2009, 12:56Location: Wrexham]

Both 7/2joint favourites now, Michel Le Bon is interesting off a low weight - his Hennessy to me looked like a lack of fitness as he was bang there with a mile to go, previous form makes him a contender. Stable goings on is a concern however.

[Posts: 1076Joined: 01 Sep 2008, 13:20Location: Liverpool]

Aww, I was really keen on Billie Magern.

It is unoriginal but I cannot see past Planet Of Sound now. He ran well in The Arkle and was a leading Ryanair contender a few seasons ago so I cannot see the sharp track inconveniencing him. I think he has plenty of speed. POS is still on the same mark that saw him run second in The Hennessy.

I like Consigliere but think he finishes too weakly. This race turns quite grisly at the end most years, so it is not one for a dog like him. Nacarat should run well into the places again but isn't well treated enough to win. Michel Le Bon is also interesting but I couldn't back a Paul Nicholls runner with confidence yet.

[Posts: 1571Joined: 04 Mar 2010, 10:15Location: Huddersfield]

JJM: Welcome to my way of thinking and that 3rd was after his saddle slipped too!!

Gutted, can not catch a break with Fingal Bay and Grandouet out of the festival today. Thought 9/1 was an immense price.

[Posts: 132Joined: 23 Dec 2011, 13:21Location: Hamilton]

The Young Fella wrote...

It is unoriginal but I cannot see past Planet Of Sound now. He ran well in The Arkle and was a leading Ryanair contender a few seasons ago so I cannot see the sharp track inconveniencing him. I think he has plenty of speed. POS is still on the same mark that saw him run second in The Hennessy.

I like Consigliere but think he finishes too weakly. This race turns quite grisly at the end most years, so it is not one for a dog like him. Nacarat should run well into the places again but isn't well treated enough to win. Michel Le Bon is also interesting but I couldn't back a Paul Nicholls runner with confidence yet.

I agree that Planet of Sound has a very good chance, his 2nd to Carruthers, giving nearly a stone to him, in the Hennessy was impressive.

I also know what you mean with Consigliere, he has in the past petered out a bit at the end of some of his races, but as you know from my previous post, I fancy him for this. My reasoning is that I believe as he has got older, he finishes a bit better now. Two races back, admittedly over 2m5f at Wincanton, he won with his head in his chest and eased down. In the Peter Marsh last time, he did fade, but only in the last few yards, and that was after 3m on heavy at Haydock. I think 3m at Kempton, a sharper track, and on good ground, will not cause him any problems.

He has always threatened to be a very good horse, but just fell short. I think at 9yrs, David Pipe is now getting the best out of him. I can see him winning this and doing well at Cheltenham, where he has got 4 entries....not sure which he would head for, maybe the Coral Cup or the Byrne Plate.

[Posts: 258Joined: 12 Mar 2008, 17:48]

I am interested in Michel Le Bo too. It is rare to get a nice weighted unexposed top class potential nicholls horse like this. He jumped superbly in the hennessy until about 4 out when he hit a wall, surely of a nice 10-12, under the best jock, round an easier 3m, smaller field it could be the right recipe.

Playing the top weight and michel le bon even stakes on the win.

[Posts: 86Joined: 10 Mar 2011, 22:20]

I'm going to take a chance Consigliere (FR) will stay the 3miles at Kempton he seems to have a lot going for him small field all wins in races of 10 or less, Tom Scudamore has won on him 5 times the only thing I'm worried is that he has never won over 3 miles but I suppose if he is going to win a 3mile race Kempton is as good a place as any.
The one I am worried about is Sarando if he is in anything like the form of his Aintree run last year I think he is a live contender.
Mount Oscar might run well also.
Nothing like covering all your bases lol.

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

In any handicap where it appears that there is dearth of quality it usually pays to look at the top end of the handicap. Having liked Planet of Sound on the same principle in the Hennessy, and Deep Purple for his handicap debut at Sandown, Nacarat strikes me as the most likely winner. Plenty of class and a tremendous record in the race, whereas the other two are more likely to be using it as prep race for the National.

[Posts: 132Joined: 23 Dec 2011, 13:21Location: Hamilton]

Eclipse First wrote.....

In any handicap where it appears that there is dearth of quality it usually pays to look at the top end of the handicap. Having liked Planet of Sound on the same principle in the Hennessy, and Deep Purple for his handicap debut at Sandown, Nacarat strikes me as the most likely winner. Plenty of class and a tremendous record in the race, whereas the other two are more likely to be using it as prep race for the National.

I wouldn't disagree with your reasoning here. He has a great record in the race, winning in 2009 and placed in both other races and often the class horses win from the top end. But I can't have any of the three "class" horses in this race.

Planet of Sound, good horse that he is, hasn't won for two years.

Deep Purple did indeed win his last race, but that was first win in over two years, and it was over 3m 5 1/2 f. I think he needs extreme distances to be at his best now, and I think he will be running on but too late over a sharp 3m at Kempton.

Nacarat has been a really nice horse, but since winning last April at Aintree, he simply has not looked the same horse. In the four races he has had since then, he has not only been beaten, but he was last (of the finishers) in three out of four, and beaten a total of 141 lengths

Guiness Gold Cup at punchestown....last of four finishers....beaten 45lenghts
In the Charlie Hall....4th, ....beaten 33 lengths
At Aintree in Dec....last of 3 finishers ....beaten 22 lengths
In the King George...last of 5 finishers.....beaten 41 lengths

I do take your point that Nacarat has been a top class horse, but it would take a giant leap of faith in expecting him to bounce back to form. Not one I'm about to make.

As I posted earlier, I think Consigliere has been frustrating in the past, but he seems to be showing himself as an improved horse. One firm still going 14-1, I think that is overly generous.

Best of luck anyway Eclipse.

[Posts: 1101Joined: 25 Nov 2009, 12:56Location: Wrexham]

I can't see Consigliere winning to be honest, not good enough IMO. Needs really soft ground in my view and that definitely won't be the case tomorrow. POS, Nacarat and MLB to fight it out, with POS just coming out on top.

[Posts: 132Joined: 23 Dec 2011, 13:21Location: Hamilton]

I've just checked, and the 14-1 for Consigliere has gone (at 1827 with Boyles) Now best priced 12-1....still value I think.

[Posts: 132Joined: 23 Dec 2011, 13:21Location: Hamilton]

Rich 1985 said.......

I can't see Consigliere winning to be honest, not good enough IMO. Needs really soft ground in my view and that definitely won't be the case tomorrow. POS, Nacarat and MLB to fight it out, with POS just coming out on top.

I'm not disputing he likes it soft, but he ran a cracking race on genuine good ground last year at the festival, giving oodles of weight to everything in the race bar Tatenen, before he weakened at the last, finishing 4th....giving 1st 4lbs to each of the three horse that finished in front of him. I think he will handle the ground ok.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

I'd be amazed if Nacarat wasn't beaten by at least 15 lengths tomorrow. Gone at the game.