The JCB Triumph Hurdle

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

grumeti looked workmanlike to me and I thought baby mix was far more impressive. also the time was much quicker than in the grumeti race. often the flashier types get found out up that hill at cheltenham, but baby mix just looks rock solid to me.

Another misinformed comment. Baby Mix was 5.5 seconds faster to the 3rd last. Grumeti was 3.7 seconds faster from that point.

Baby Mix has had a hard race 20 days before he goes into battle. Grumeti has not. Baby Mix has run to a very average level. Grumeti has run to a good level.

I don't understand how you can say Grumeti was workmanlike when Baby Mix made all and was all out for victory while Grumeti I don't think was even whipped once and was eased right down in the final 50 yards.

Sadler's Wells runners at Cheltenham have had such an appalling record recently that right now the only horse I can possibly consider is Grumeti.

[Posts: 258Joined: 12 Mar 2008, 17:48]

Sakhee's have a tremendous record at the festival. 'll have a sadlers over a sakhee anyday.

Quite simply the two races are impossible to compare.

Adonis was run at a better pace and therefore the form is probably more upstanding.

Grumeti did all that is required, although not punched out i would have wanted a triumph winner to win a little more easily against a newcomer but i am not a fan of the horse so perhaps a little bias.

Do you find it impressive that Grumeti finished the later parts of the race faster? That is just logical because they went a crawl early on. Quite simply he has only encountered a decent test the once and lost to pearl swan. I suspect he will be found wanting as he was on the flat, several times i watched the horse flounder in a battle. He had first run on a slow looking pearl at cheltenham and couldn't hold on. What happens when they go hell for leather in the triumph and he can't get first run??? He simply won't have it easy then and will bottle it like he did on the level.

How he is preferred to baby mix i don't know??? 6-1 is a poor price, i make him 10-1 shot at best along with sadlers. Baby mix rightful favourite.

Would not be surprised if baby and sadlers reverse at festival but concerning how outpaced sadlers was at one stage so concerns there but can see him closing well on the run in.

The triumph regularly goes to french and irish bred flatbred horses. Have a look at Darrouns last race from the front in a massive field. gets headed then hammers back to beat hisaabat. Bottle, jumps well, by dalakhani, ok, irish trained is a neg but the british four year olds look extremely mediocre so why not look at the irish? Hisaabat won a nice race last time but his strike rate is poor. Darroun will stay, will have speed to compete and has class. 16-1 is huge, ha can't be far of these horses at the head?

Positives for grumeti is he and sdlers look to be the best jumpers and gain ground. I worry for baby mix because he seems to cock some hurdles right up. Baby mis has shown the best form of the british horses so has to be respected.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

Sakhee's have a tremendous record at the festival. 'll have a sadlers over a sakhee anyday.

Well that's a silly comment. In the last 3 years, Sakhee's had 3 Festival runners. 3rd in the 2011 Pertemps & 8th & 11th in the same year's Bumper.

Sadler's Wells' record on the other hand is; 0X07X7400604 (X denotes didn't complete)

My point was that Sadler's Wells horses don't seem to be any good now. Indeed, his recent success on the flat has been very limited.

Do you find it impressive that Grumeti finished the later parts of the race faster? That is just logical because they went a crawl early on.

Thank you so much for teaching me the basics of racing.

I actually just came across an interesting trend that I found in 2010 that I'd forgotten about. Between 1998 and 2008, 19 horses ran in the Triumph with a flat RPR of 100+. 1 won (Celestial Halo), 2 placed.

Will look into the last 3 years now to see if that stat has carried on, but if it has, both Minsk and Dildar also reached 100+.

[Posts: 1039Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

You'd have to be concerned about Minsk's jumping


But it was a strange race. Almost as if they didn't want to win it...

[Posts: 258Joined: 12 Mar 2008, 17:48]

You're welcome Zarks.

I am perectly aware of a limited amount of Sakhees running at the festival. Point being i would rather have a fancied sadlers horse over a fancied sakhee. So Sakhee has hit the ground running with his festival horses.

That is good about the over 100 rated flat horses, i have already put a line through the two named horses, Thanks for your help. I am not looking for the best performer from the flat, Katchit, Penzance etc were positively mediocre on the flat. Alan King turned them into triumoph horses so he can certainly do it Grumeti too.

I would just be more inclined to lean towards an Irish or French bred which have a significantly better record than the british breds.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

I actually just came across an interesting trend that I found in 2010 that I'd forgotten about. Between 1998 and 2008, 19 horses ran in the Triumph with a flat RPR of 100+. 1 won (Celestial Halo), 2 placed.

Will look into the last 3 years now to see if that stat has carried on, but if it has, both Minsk and Dildar also reached 100+.

Yes this is a very interesting stat that's continued. I'm looking into it properly now and I'll go back a fair way, but 2007-2011;

16 runners with a flat RPR of 100+

1 winner; Celestial Halo (114, the highest rated of any of the 16)
2 placed; Alaivan (112), Mourad (105)

13 unplaced who finished 67000P690RP9P

Those rated even 95-99 finished; 9045

Celebrity Sevi, Creekside, Dildar, Midnight Oil, Minsk, Military Bowl & Sadler's Risk fall into the RPR100+ category. Kazlian also comes dangerously close on 99.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

I would just be more inclined to lean towards an Irish or French bred which have a significantly better record than the british breds.

Libranno (GB)
4-y-o (13Feb08 b c)
Librettist (USA) — Annabelle Ja (FR) (Singspiel (IRE))

What nationality is Libranno?

[Posts: 1551Joined: 04 Mar 2010, 10:15Location: Huddersfield]

Backed Grumeti this morning at 10s, thought he would win his trial as mentioned on Twitter, didn't like any horses in the Adonis, they are going like flies. Still think Minks at 12s with Ladbrokes NRNB could be worth a tickle.

[Posts: 3561Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

JJM, Ladbrokes are currently 16/1, and they are not NRNB.

[Posts: 777Joined: 22 Sep 2011, 23:12Location: North Wales]

Although not overly impressive today, I can't see how anyone would write off Baby Mix. He clearly wasn't right when finishing last at Cheltenham the time before Kempton, and that reason, along with his debut display, gave me a sneaky feeling for him today. Easy to say now as I'd been adamant for days before the race that we'd see a different Dildar today - no such luck

How he still has people saying he can't win this shocking Triumph though is beyond me! He's not my first choice right now but still..........

[Posts: 405Joined: 25 Oct 2009, 10:28]

Two words for me ...

Pearl Swan

[Posts: 695Joined: 24 Apr 2008, 02:19Location: durham]

All these people who are keen to suggest that Grumeti will win the Triumph, are you not concerned that he got headed by the more inexperienced Pearl Swan at Cheltenham?

That was a proper test of the Triumph as it was run over course and distance. Ok if you use that form then you have to discount Baby Mix, but I don't really think Pearl Swan should have been thrown out that day, are there any legitimate excuses for Grumeti that day or do people think he doesn't need any?

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

Nope, he's exempt.

He'll reverse form easily.