The JCB Triumph Hurdle

[Posts: 1086Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

I'm betting each way on the day. Not touching this race at all in antepost bets.

The form reads like one of those all weather sprint handicaps

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

grumeti looked workmanlike to me and I thought baby mix was far more impressive. also the time was much quicker than in the grumeti race. often the flashier types get found out up that hill at cheltenham, but baby mix just looks rock solid to me.

Another misinformed comment. Baby Mix was 5.5 seconds faster to the 3rd last. Grumeti was 3.7 seconds faster from that point.

I haven't checked that personally, just a comment I read on Twitter, but if you time the races from the 2nd hurdle, you'll find the Dovecote (Grumeti) is faster by .5 seconds, albeit carrying 5lbs less. They just went a dawdle in that early on.

Choc Thornton also didn't have to use the whip or ask any serious questions and won comfortably.

[Posts: 1086Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

Minsk is out. Throat infection

[Posts: 182Joined: 01 Mar 2010, 21:33Location: Bristol]

Will Sadlers Risk strip fitter for his run yesterday? Available at 10s with Boylesports and Lads.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

He needs to improve about 7lbs just to be on a par with Grumeti, I think. And to be honest, the season Hobbs is having, I wouldn't want to be on anything of his.

[Posts: 258Joined: 12 Mar 2008, 17:48]

I made it 3 seconds faster from the second hurdle. Not sure what it really says. Grumeti will be in the top 5 he jumps, has pace to go along is probably the best built out of them all. 5-1 is far too short though and the only race he has had that resembled a triumph test he lost receiving 3 pounds.

Zarks, why do you think he will reverse? If anything the gap will be bigger, the pace will be more frantic and the staying on pearl swan will benefit. Furthermore, Alan Kings horses were running out of their skin that weekend which is sometimes tough to replicate.

I think he is a decent bet at 10s but wouldn't go near him at 5s. This race is as messy and open as the supreme.


On the breeding front Zarks, you might be able to teach me something. I would say Libranno is british bred. GB by his name is all i put it down to. It is a stat I am aware of and used it for this race on that basis and it has helped rule out many a horse. Penzance being the only one i have seen and weirdly i was on.

Love Alan King and his 4 year olds always command respect, i just don't think Grumeti has shown anything to warrant being shorter than baby mix we all know the cheltenham run is not to be trusted for baby mix's form guide. I wouldn't be on him because he seems to make a hash of a few hurdles and will only become more likely in the frantic triumph melee.

Simple matter is this race has no standouts. I was hoping for one or two to put a real stamp down yesterday to scare Kazlian to the fred winter where of 130 he would go close. Now because the horses look nothing special i suspect my 16-./1 on kazlian for the fw will be worthless.

For what its worth I am topping up on sadlers who i have as a level player to sadlers who will surely come close to baby mix as hobbs' string usually improve come march and George clearly had his string firing great guns. 10-1 is a nice price.

Darroun will surely give a good account at 16s too.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

I made it 3 seconds faster from the second hurdle.

Eh? I played the 2 simultaneously on the same laptop on different media players, exactly from the 2nd hurdle and there was almost no difference. Strange.

Zarks, why do you think he will reverse? If anything the gap will be bigger, the pace will be more frantic and the staying on pearl swan will benefit. Furthermore, Alan Kings horses were running out of their skin that weekend which is sometimes tough to replicate.

I think purely down to Choc being in the saddle & because of renewed confidence after a decent round of jumping. Nicholls also manages to get a lot out of his French imports soon after their British debuts & I think he'll go backwards a fair bit. See Hinterland for a good example of that this season.

King's are running well & you're right there, but this is the Triumph. It's Alan King's race.

On the breeding front Zarks, you might be able to teach me something. I would say Libranno is british bred. GB by his name is all i put it down to.

Libranno was born in the UK, hence (GB) after his name. It doesn't mean he's British bred. If anything, I'd take being born in this country as a huge bonus. The French don't push their horses early in their careers, neither do the Irish, but for the Triumph you want a horse who's pretty much as the peak of his ability.

[Posts: 258Joined: 12 Mar 2008, 17:48]

Sorry, thought you meant second last hurdle.

I have been watching Sadlers again, i like him but i am concerned about the complete lack of response to baby mix's move around the final bend. Completely left behind. That concerns me.

This race is messy and i am heavily exposed to sadlers and a little on darroun. I am going to try and play it on san to make a profit on any of the 3 but i wish i could just press the reset button to be honest. One of my favourite races but I might just cut my losses and hope to get lucky.

Hoping Balder Suces runs, completely unexposed in the form with the main british protagonists and might be more to come from him.

[Posts: 2032Joined: 06 Jun 2011, 14:34Location: Bury St Edmunds]

Balder Succes is very interesting. I read that they were originally planning to bypass Cheltenham and go to Liverpool, that implied they thought he would be better next year, whatever he achieved this, and they didn't want to bottom him out as the Triumph often does. I'd be more impressed if they let him mature and he could make up into a proper Champion Hurdle contender next year. Grumeti may well have afforded them the luxury of waiting after his performance yesterday.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

Can't understand the obsession with either Balder Succes or Royal Guardsman.

The former won a 2m novice hurdle from a horse who's previous 2 novice hurdles have been over 2m 4f and 2m 5f. Not to mention he hadn't looked good in either and hadn't won either, with the winner of the latter (The Druids Nephew) recording a RPR of just 119 with a topspeed of 76. Horrible.

Not to mention the time he posted.

Ascot last week

2m 3 1/2f - 19.6 seconds slower then standard
3m - 20.7 seconds slow
3m - 17.7 seconds slow
2m 5 1/2f - 13.8 seconds slow
2m 3 1/2f - 15.2 seconds slow

And then Balder Succes

2m - 21.5 seconds slow

And Royal Guardsman

2m - 26.3 seconds slow

So Balder Succes relatively posted a slower time than Invictus.

And as for Royal Guardsman...

Their topspeed figures of 79 and 56 respectively show just how slow they were.

[Posts: 258Joined: 12 Mar 2008, 17:48]

Time wise is very disappointing, nice point. i think it is just the visual impressiveness of the win. What did he beat? The race was not a strong run decent sized field and pretty much represents nothing of the sort of test the triumph would be.

Positives are his hurdling and his unexposure but that could be anything.

More negatives, the time arguement you point to basically condemns him for me. He has done nothing to suggest he can win the triumph time wise.
Also has very little experience and no flat form, the race always seems to go to a flat type with enough experience at 4 years old. Just put a line through him.

I think it is between 5.
Grumeti, i can't have at 5s, been beaten only time at cheltenham would rather 8-1 pearl swan.

Sadlers out paced alarmingly yesterday and might get cauhght flat footed again, 10s is a fair enough price wouldn't touch anything smaller.

Pearl Swan, could be the one, got out paced but showed the sustained run style that suits so many large field hurdle races. Hung right last time, 3 pounds better off with grumeti 8-1 is a nice price, i think he should be shorter.

Baby Mix - Wins the adonis, 2 from 3, concerned that he puts in the odd shocking leap but has to go close. 7-1 think he should be favourite.

Darroun - unexposed, front ran last time, beat hisaabat well and form been franked. Well bred flat pedigree, Irish have a terrible record in the race.

[Posts: 1086Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

" The French don't push their horses early in their careers "

Interesting. History says the opposite is true.

[Posts: 3324Joined: 20 May 2009, 03:40]

As jumpers, yes, but not as 2yos.