GREATWOOD CHASE at Newbury

[Posts: 1058Joined: 25 Mar 2011, 11:32Location: Catterick, N Yorkshire]

In a rather weak looking Grade 3 the trends near enough all point to one horse

He has good enough form to win it, without doubt comes from the correct yard and may just be the tonic they need after recent events!

Ridden by Ruby himself and trained by Mr Nicholls the horse that should win the days big race tomorrow is:

AERIAL

available at 9/2 I can see this one getting punted tomorrow

[Posts: 1074Joined: 25 Nov 2009, 12:56Location: Wrexham]

Sure, Aerial has a favourite's chance but I've the suspicion he's better on soft ground. I wouldn't rule out a good run from Crescent Island back at Newbury, it's all or nothing with this horse but on good ground he could have a squeak. Hector's Choice gave his form a big boost by running well in the RP Chase last week. Araldur is another not without a chance with King in good form, only finished a few places behind Aerial in January and could do well, although think he will do better over 3m in time.

[Posts: 1026Joined: 01 Sep 2008, 13:20Location: Liverpool]

I am tempted to give Dave's Dream one more shot. I think Nicky Henderson had high hopes of him winning the Paddy Power. Dave's Dream had to win a race beforehand to get into that race, did so handsomely...and then blew the plot by running a stinker.

Mick Fitzgerald always said this horse was going to be the next stable star - MF even said that he was gutted to miss out on riding him when forced to retire. There is obviously some serious ability there somewhere.

Maybe blinkers are the answer. He is on a mark to win if he fancies it. New Little Bric was revived with headgear in this race a few years ago, so maybe, possibly, somehow Dave's Dream will do it!

I need some new straws. I clutched these ones too hard.

Fine Parchment with a featherweight looks deeply interesting too. Will his rider be able to claim his full 10lbs away from 10st 1lbs??? Yikes he has a good chance if Gavin Sheehan has starved himself for the last fortnight.

Edit: Gavin Sheehan has done 9st 4lbs in the last 12 months, so must be a small lad. Should be no problem using his entire 10lb claim.

[Posts: 1074Joined: 25 Nov 2009, 12:56Location: Wrexham]

I did consider DD, he's such a big horse so does take time to get fit and into his stride. Also, will he stay? Done all his winning over 2m.

Also, I would take MF's comments with a pinch of salt - said that Duc De Regniere was one of the best horses he'd sat on!

[Posts: 132Joined: 23 Dec 2011, 13:21Location: Hamilton]

Young Fella......I'm in exactly the same camp as you here. I thought Dave's Dream was going to do great things, and he hasn't quite managed that, although he is still a very good horse.

Like you I hope that 1st time blinkers bring about a change of fortune, he didn't look too interested last time at Sandown, but was running on a bit at the end . His handicap mark has dropped to a winning mark for him if he's up to it, I think he is 2lb higher than last win off 137 in November.

Rich is right, this is further than he has gone before, but not too much as he has won three times at 2m1f and once at 2m2f.

If the blinkers bring about a positive change, which first time they can, and with Barry Geraghty back on him, I (like you) am going to give him another chance.

I have to admit when the market opened yesterday, with about 6 bookies giving prices, I took the 8-1 which was best at that time, most offering 7-1 or 15-2. I'm not feeling so smart today with 9s pretty available

[Posts: 1963Joined: 15 Mar 2010, 00:56]

Dave's Dream for me too, giving him one more chance, took the 10's there with Betvictor.

[Posts: 132Joined: 23 Dec 2011, 13:21Location: Hamilton]

Well done VTC...I did notice that he had drifted to 10s with VC, before being clipped back into 9s.

I keep telling myself to bide my time and not rush in.....normally just before I go rushing in. I suppose it's because I've decided he is the likely winner, and I think everyone else will look through the same eyes, come to the same conclusion, and start lumping on.

Anyway, 8s or 10s, lets hope we get a good run for out money at the very least.

[Posts: 1026Joined: 01 Sep 2008, 13:20Location: Liverpool]

I hope they make the running with Dave's Dream. I always think first time blinkers have added effectiveness when the wearer is ridden positively.

I am not a horse psychologist and don't know why this would be, but it is just a trend I have noticed.

[Posts: 1963Joined: 15 Mar 2010, 00:56]

Not much on G, but hoping for a decent show!

[Posts: 132Joined: 23 Dec 2011, 13:21Location: Hamilton]

VTC....at 10-1 you don't need a lot on. It all goes towards the Cheltenham satchel.....with a little luck.

I hope you are right Young Fella, I think blinkers, especially first time, can make a difference.....fingers crossed.

[Posts: 2676Joined: 26 Nov 2002, 13:53]

I've a little on Dave's Dream at Cheltenham, but am hoping Fix The Rib is too well-weighted to let him win here.

One of the Sporting Life's correspondenta makes a very strong case for FixTR, and his form in the book substantiates it fully, imo. Whether he wins, of course, is a whole nother matter.

[Posts: 1551Joined: 04 Mar 2010, 10:15Location: Huddersfield]

Fix The Rib is an outrageously good price. EW steal.

[Posts: 1043Joined: 12 Feb 2011, 15:34]

Araldur for me.

Dave's Dream a classic example of connections getting a horse repeatedly wrong and entered in unsuitable races. Best fresh over two miles.

Araldur for me. Flat track - might have won at Wetherby but for being hampered but at least it means he can go for this of a nice mark