I posted this on the Foxhunters thread a few weeks back and recent events have only strengthened my opinion. The 9s has now gone but he’s still banker material as far as I’m concerned.
Lee
Chapoturgeon looked good again yesterday but having fancied him last year I can’t forget how my reservations about him fully seeing out the trip came true up the hill.
For that reason, I won’t be going in again.
Tammys Hill is definitely a horse on the up and having UR when sent off at 16/1 to win a Leopardstown Hunter chase a year ago (won by Salsify), he has since racked up a series of odds on victories in PTPs.
He must have every chance but the one I really like is last year’s winner
Salsify
.
Still only 8 himself, he comes out as much the same horse as Tammys Hill on their last two races, in which he’s been beaten 3 1/2 lengths both times when giving away 4lb.
For me, those runs alone entitle him to be sharing favouritism but it’s his preference for the better ground he’s likely to encounter at Cheltenham that makes the currently available 9/1 seemingly excellent value.
Although he’s been running well on a softer surface (the two recent defeats by TH coming on Hvy & Sft/Hvy), his record on going any slower than Gd/Sft reads;
00633172U2PF22
Compare that to his record on Gd/Sft or quicker;
351F11111
Trainer’s quote after he’d won at Leopardstown last Feb: "That’s nice ground for Salsify as he’s probably more of a spring horse"
The winner of this race last year (beating Chapoturgeon – the current favourite for this years event), still only 8 years old, formlines to suggest the has the beating of anything outside the first 3 in the betting… There are a plethera of worst priced bets on offer at this year’s festival.
And at least you know what race he’ll be heading for
Lee
I’m with you on this one Lee, banker material for me is Quevega – a safer proposition @ 4/6 over hurdles than 1/4 Sacre over fences (no matter how good a jumper he is), but for a valu bet at odds against, Salsify at 3/1 is still a very solid bet. You may recall i got some 10s and i’m on at all rates down to 5/1. Just watched the re-run last night of the 2012 Foxhunters and he cruised round at the back, jumping well and sliced through the field round the home turn, winning pretty comfortably.
He looks to have been brough to peak specifically for this, Tammys Hill has probably peaked earlier, leaving Chapoturgeon as the only real danger, but there is no reason why he should reverse last years running.