Supreme novices 2012

[Posts: 1118Joined: 16 Jan 2003, 19:24Location: Birmingham / London]

I can't be arsed to trawl through all of the runners for the past 11 years now as I'm already invested but I'd want to see the percentage of total runners in the race that HAD raced on the flat compared to those that HAD NOT and then compare that to the 27% stat, i.e. 3 from 11, that went on to win before making a judgement on this stat.

Lee

[Posts: 327Joined: 18 Feb 2010, 14:08]

Normally I'd agree with you But look at Steps To Freedom's past form.

Hacked up first time out on G/F then a month later was ridden along when fell.

Given 9 months off and again on quick ground he destroyed a useful field in the Aintree bumper. I assume you've seen that race but if you haven't just look at the way he comes there cruising and then watch the instant acceleration akin to a useful performer on the flat.

He again ran a month later when dissapointing in the Punchestown equivalent and was then on the go all summer before coming full of running at Cheltenham yet not finding as much as expected, although still managing to get the better of a since regressive Prospect Wells.

The horse's record fresh on quickish ground is excellent and in my eyes a repeat of his Aintree performance, coupled with CD form would see him win next week - especially as Jessica seems very happy with him.

Steps To Freedom and Darlan are still my two against the field but luckily I got a better price about the latter as I wouldn't be taking 5/1.

Lee

I'd much rather read good posts like this, rather than those of some condescending twit who has swallowed the latest Oxford dictionary 17 times

[Posts: 1962Joined: 07 Jan 2010, 15:53]

Even though he is a "Proper" trainer yes?

Oh That was you.............Well I wish I'd realised earlier I'm out of here, not wasting any more time on this

[Posts: 1962Joined: 07 Jan 2010, 15:53]

In case anyone else is interested I've put my money where my mouth is

£500 EW Galileo's Choice @ 7 /1 Placed last weekend

[Posts: 704Joined: 24 Apr 2008, 02:19Location: durham]

I don't know what you're implying really. very little of what you say makes any sense.

[Posts: 277Joined: 18 Sep 2011, 17:34]

I'd much rather read good posts like this, rather than those of some condescending twit who has swallowed the latest Oxford dictionary 17 times

Ooooooh, he's educated, what a ******* t**t!

Haha, some of you are epic. The sensitivity of a mouse, the logic of the word irregardless blended with the bite of Gok Wan.

[Posts: 704Joined: 24 Apr 2008, 02:19Location: durham]

maybe if you weren't such a relentless stuck up your own [expletive] troll, you might not piss people off so much...

[Posts: 1962Joined: 07 Jan 2010, 15:53]

shack, elgrandsenor.....don't get drawn into a battle of wits with an unarmed opponent

[Posts: 277Joined: 18 Sep 2011, 17:34]

shack, elgrandsenor.....don't get drawn into a battle of wits with an unarmed opponent

A "proper" put down indeed.

[Posts: 704Joined: 24 Apr 2008, 02:19Location: durham]

agreed. actually I left the betfair forum because it was too full of pompous twits like this guy but seems there is no escape.

[Posts: 327Joined: 18 Feb 2010, 14:08]

agreed. actually I left the betfair forum because it was too full of pompous twits like this guy but seems there is no escape.

Yep, Keyboard Warriors are rife whichever forum you turn to.

[Posts: 1026Joined: 01 Sep 2008, 13:20Location: Liverpool]

I'm finally done studying this race and have my 1-2-3.

1st - Steps To Freedom (WIN 7/1)

2nd - Colour Squadron (e/w 16/1)

3rd - Dylan Ross (e/w 33/1)


I found it tough to discard Galileo's Choice, but his lesser hurdle achievements and jockey/trainer just pushed him out of my top three. Steps To Freedom is the proven horse, I think already showing he can produce mid 160s runs over hurdles when you consider all he achieved in unsuitable conditions at Cheltenham. I see people using that run to criticise him, but I took it as an enormous positive that he could win in spite of everything. The standout piece of form, in fact.

Colour Squadron, like Darlan, doesn't look like the most intelligent horse. He is very green, fell last time and just not the finished article mentally. I think Richard Johnson will know to give him a very patient ride on the day, a la Menorah - which will allow the obvious potential to be unlocked. Hopefully none the worse for recent fall.

Dylan Ross is a huge price (justifiable since he won't win, I guess) but I'll take a small bet each-way. He just looks very ungenuine and has travelled like the best horse in all of his runs this season, then refused to win. More of the same could be good enough to get in the frame.

[Posts: 7Joined: 03 Apr 2011, 12:03]

Picked out divapour when still 91 entries in the supreme and he was in the Neptune did a small £2 win £2 place in both races as looking at the odds on betfair 70 and 20 for the Neptune I thought he'd go there

Anyway flat winner unbeaten over jumps. Bred by aga khan won on soft and good ground . Just have a feeling you know what I mean?

Anyway for the supreme I got £2 win at 640/1 and £2 place at 90/1
Really hope he runs and just a heads up sky bet he is only 50/1 but they pay 1,2,3,4,5