More anti Hurricane Fly (lay of the meeting) views in the British press again today. Can someone please take me through in a rational way why HF should not be favourite? (about 7/4 looks right in my view).
Here are the main points of criticism against the Mullins runner and my responses, please feel free to rubbish or correct them.
1. When he was at Cheltenham last he was comprehensively beaten by Rock On Ruby. I see no reason why he should reverse that form etc……
R1. Surely any balanced review of HF’s form leads to the conclusion that the 2012 Champion Hurdle was not the demonstration of his ability but an outlier in an otherwise almost perfect record. It could be argued that he disappointed nevertheless but an analysis of his preparation gives strong support to the fact he was not in peak shape/condition.
His moderate effort (in victory) at Punchestown afterwards supports a view that he was not himself that spring.
2. His actual Champion Hurdle win was a poor renewal, last years was better, he beat nothing.
R2. This is a rewriting of history, in my view, he and Peddlers Cross drew much further clear of the other placed horses than last years winner. In addition whilst Peddlers has undoubtedly disappointed since a close look at his profile on CH day 2011 reveals that he was un unbeaten hurdler, Neptune & Mersey novice winner at both the big Festivals the previous spring. When graduating to senior ranks he then beat the reigning Champion Hurdler in the Fighting Fifth at Newbury and also broke the track record in the Morebattle. In other words he was an unbeaten potential superstar who met his match in HF.
3. Hurricane Fly only runs in small field races in Ireland which are uncompetitive.
R3. There may be a grain of truth in this but they are uncompetitive due to HF’s talent. There also seems to be a strong double standard here. The 4 main Champion Hurdle trials races in England this year The Fighting Fifth, The Bula, The Christmas Hurdle & the Contenders Hurdle (Doncaster) had 4,7,7,4 runners. The impression you get from the media over here is that the English based horses are tested in the mettle of big field competitive races whilst HF beats a handful of runners. Well they are not exactly running in the Stewards Cup themselves.
4. Hurricane Fly beats the same horses over and over in Ireland.
R4. It is true that Solwhit and then Thousand Stars feature prominently in HF’s race record but the subtext of this charge is that he is conservatively campaigned in comparison to the hardy, fearless English based horses (see above). Looking at the Champion Hurdle field only Binocular and Countrywide Flame have left England since joining their current trainers. Neither has won. Since he joined Willie Mullins, Hurricane Fly has been campaigned in Ireland, England and France winning Graded races in all three territories…he is by far the most ambitiously and courageously campaigned runner in the Champion Hurdle field.
5. He may not like Cheltenham (despite winning and placing in Champion Hurdle).
R5. He is 50% at Cheltenham (3rd best win ratio in the field) but that is a very small sample size. Countrywide Flame is 100% and Zarkava 66% but all those wins were on the New Course. Interestingly Rock On Ruby who is variously described as a ‘Cheltenham stalwart’ and ‘loving the place’ has been beaten on the majority of his runs there. 2 wins from 5 runs (40%). ROR does clearly like Cheltenham but there is a selective bias in the analysis of the relative suitability of the course.
Binocular is 1 win from 4 runs at Cheltenham and despite everyone saying he is a spring horse he has a much better win record in the winter months. He has only ever won one race outside the Dec-Feb period.
So in summary it comes down to this, how do you rate Hurricane Fly’s chances based on the evidence of his form and profile. Is the 20i2 Champion Hurdle race the epitome of his ability or does his failure there actual demonstrate that that piece of evidence is an outlier, an exception that proves the rule that this is a horse with a better race record than Istrabraq and probably with at least an equal talent.
I take the latter view and hope and think he wins.