I won’t back Toronado for Epsom because I have always viewed Richard Hannon as a specialist with 5F to 8F horses. I made a decision, after observing the stable for a while, not to back any of the stables runners that are running beyond a mile trip. 25 years on, I haven’t regretted it.
If we look at the stats for the past 12 months, the stable had 1421 runners and 232 winners, by far the bulk of those were at a mile or less. There were only 44 runs over the Derby trip and 3 winners. Hannon’s strike rate peaks at 5F to 6F with an average on those two trips of around 20%, the strike rate over the 12F is less than 7%
This is clearly a worrying gap on Hannon’s CV and although Toronado could be another Nijinsky, I think 7/1 is an appalling price about him lifting the crown at Epsom, given the stable’s very low profile in the race over many seasons. He reminds me a bit of Mister Baileys for Mark Johnson, who was largely expected to have his best chance of Classic glory in the Derby but in reality the opposite was the case.
Still, it’s exciting to have good odds and a live contender and I wish good luck to those who have backed him. He’s not one for me but I won’t mind him winning The Derby, as I haven’t had a bet on the race yet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.