Jac I know you love that horse and I will be chuffed for you if he wins. I was similarly obsessed by "you know who" for 3 years and it is what makes our game so special – getting an attachment to a horse. I think if he gets a bit of cut he will be very hard to beat but I think if the ground rides fast something will be quicker than him. It may be Toronado but I am hoping it will be GV.
I have to say I am with Ginge on the stats front. I don’t believe in them for a single second. For me there is ABSOLUTELY no relevance to the fact that only 1 Nell Gwyn winner has won the Guineas in the last 5 years – I just can’t see how that has anything to do with who might win it this year. Before Natagora won in 2008 we could have said "no filly has won the Prix Impudence then the Guineas". Before Ghanaati won we could have said "no filly has won the Look For Better Odds at Betdaq Maiden Fillies Stakes and then the Guineas." Before Homecoming Queen …….. well you get the point. The fact is there is no real pointer to the race in terms of what name race they have won. Same with the Craven. I think that people who hang their hats on those sort of stats are crazy I’m afraid. No offence!!
As for Hot Snap – do you really think the Hannon filly was more in need of the race than the Cecil one? HS was running for only the second time in her life. She was all at sea for the first half mile. It will be a massive surprise to me if she doesn’t improve a LOAD for that race. I am sure Sky Lantern will as well but can’t for the life of me see how a relatively exposed filly like her is going to improve past one who is surely still very much on an upward curve.
Anyway it’s a game of opinions and the proof will be in the racing!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"