Odds Line Experiment

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

In the 2:50 it looks like a 2 point win on DEGAS ART at around 9/4. Interesting move on Political Paddy ; be interesting to see how it fairs.

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

No value in Carlisle's 3:55 so we pass the race.

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

Ground may have gone against them but looks like two 1 point bets on SELDOM and CABAL who are both offering good value at around 4/1-9/2.

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

Look a touch unlucky there at Musselburgh but SHAMARLANE was well backed and not unusual to see a horse making its debut for a new trainer winning. Interesting comment made on Timeform Radio that Clive Mulhall is merely a figurehead, the horse actually being trained by someone else... .

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

Carlisle 2:50

1st Degas Art 5/2
2nd Rich Lord 5/4f

2 point win on DEGAS ART at 5/2 = 5 points.

Carlisle 3:55

1st You Know Yourself 4/1
2nd Isla Pearl Fisher 3/1
3rd Vamizi 13/8f

No bet.

Musselburgh 4:25

1st Shamarlane 8/1
2nd Cabal 9/2
3rd Seldom 7/2f

1 point win Seldom = -1 point
1 point win Cabal = -1 point

Profit to date : + 3 points

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

LINGFIELD 3:50 0-75 fillies' hcp over 8f

A very tricky race and not easy to make a line for this one.

MIDAS MOMENT - Never a fan of backing runners off a long layoff unless they've previously won following an absence and the yard is 0-10 in the last 14 days, but fillies often run well fresh and she's 2-3 on the a/w, so hard to dismiss. Rating = D

ZING WING - Same comments re' layoff apply here too but she did at least run 2nd by half a length on her 2yo debut. Has yet to finish out of the first two on the a/w, albeit from just the two starts, and probably has a bit in hand of the handicapper off a mark of 71. Mile should suit and just edges it over Midas Moment. Rating = C

QEETHAARA - Fit and comes into the race off a win. Obvious claims. Rating = B

SSAFA - Hard to enthuse over having been thumped LTO over a mile at Kempton. Down a couple of pounds but surprise if she gets involved. Rating = E

CLIMAXFORTACKLE - Recent form poor and still 2lb in excess of her last winning mark. Rating = E

BOLD RING - Recent efforts not up to much and not well handicapped but deserves a modicum of respect on her course record. Rating = E

LINE :

QEETHAARA - B 33% 2/1
ZING WING - C 25% 3/1
MIDAS MOMENT - D 20% 4/1
BOLD RING - E 10% 9/1
SSAFA - 6% 16/1
CLIMAXFORTACKLE - 6% 16/1

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

QEETHAARA turned out to be the value selection at an SP 7/2 ( had been much bigger at around 11/2 ) but the market spoke volumes and she was beaten into second by the well backed SSAFA ( 7/2 ). Interestingly, my hunch had been that the winner would in fact be ZING WING, so at least the line stopped me having a hopeless bet on her... .

-2 points

Running profit = + 1 point.

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

Sometimes an odds line is unnecessary : you look at a race and can only fancy a single runner ; in this case you take whatever's on offer. Two contenders ? How about 6/4 each of two ? Simple. However once you've done a few odds lines with at least three contenders you begin to get a feel for what would be a fair price on a particular runner without actually working it all out in detail. Here's a case in point.

Today's 3:15 at Wolverhampton is a 0-85 handicap, class 4, over roughly 14 furlongs.

WILD DESERT - Trip likely to be too sharp. E
COVERT DECREE - Won last time out. Fitness may be an issue but cannot discount. C
PITTODRIE STAR - Decent effort LTO over today's trip at Musselburgh. Likely winner. B
RAJEH - Recent form crook ; highly unlikely. F
AL KHAWANEEJ - Facile winner LTO. Up a mountain in the weights but debuting for Dave Simcock and open to further improvement. C
QUINSMAN - Been in good form of late but probably needs a career best to defy curent mark in this grade. D
MISTER GREEN - Stamina issues. Unlikely. E

Ranking the contenders :

PITTODRIE STAR - B
COVERT DECREE - C
AL KHAWANEEJ - C

The first set of prices I saw were as follows : PS 5/2 ; CD 3/1 ; AK 5/1 ; Qu' 8/1. Just looking at these odds made me realise there was little, if any, value to be had with each horse within half-a-point of a fair price. That could be important because if you took the view that the race was between three you might simply back the biggest priced horse of the three, AK in this case. However, 9/2 / 5/1 just doesn't look like good value in the context of this race. Well, we shall see !

Incidentally, another benfit of the odds line is the way in which market moves can be put into context. A horse you rate a D or even an E that shortens considerably is obviously worth a second look. You may not back it to win ( how could you, all the value's gone ?! ) but it can make for a nice exacta when coupled with your value selection. The last race we looked at was a good example of just that.

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

The SAAFA ( well backed winner )/ QETHAARA ( value selection ) exacta payed £25.70, not that I had it, of course... .

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

Forgot to mention COTTON KING. Thought he could be ruled out for the lack of a recent run, but again looks poor value anyway.

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

Wel, make of that what you will ! The biggest priced of the three won and although I believed 5/1 was about its price at least it shows the folly of simply backing the "most likely winner", in this case PS, who ran 2nd at 11/4.

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

Musselburgh 3:30 Difficult to rate with any real confidence. Settled on :

BORUG - C Obvious claims but softening ground a concern.

MULLINS WAY - C Rated to win and evidence of last two runs suggest he'll appreciate a furlong further.

ORIENTAL SCOT - D Not impossible but record beyond a mile raises doubts.

MUFFIN MCLEAY - C Contender.

JUDICIOUS - D Fails on form but could improve on debut for Keith Dalgleish.

EUSTON SQUARE - D/E Handicap winner off 70 and 72 so not looking too well handicapped off 78 ( beaten LTO off 76 ). Two previous runs here inauspicious : 12th of 12 and 7th of 7. Record in turf handicaps of 73+ = 0047054374429966 ( 0-16 ).

MY SINGLE MALT - D/E Hard to assess. Debut for Julie Camacho ; yard not exactly firing of late. Still 4lb above its last winning mark and weak in the betting.

STAFF SERGEANT - D/E Hasn't won for over two years.

LUCKY WINDMILL - D Trip likely too sharp.

COLLATERAL DAMAGE - E Last win in November 2009.

BOTHAM - E In form when last seen but doubtful in this grade off a rating of 72.

Tentative selection is 1 point each-way on MULLINS WAY who looks good value at around 12/1. Tricky contest though... .

[Posts: 98Joined: 06 Nov 2006, 14:14]

Interesting result.

I'm wondering if I make too much of a horse not having won for a couple of years.

Of interest with the winner was its record on its seasonal debuts : 2yo = 7/9 ; 3yo = 1/9 ; 4yo = 2/7 ( btn a head ); 5yo = 1/11 . One to note first-time-out in 2013... !