THM on the Flat 2012

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

So You Think must have a huge chance in the Dubai World Cup this evening. His form from last summer with Workforce would make him very hard to beat and I think he'll be ready to rock today, even though AOB often leaves something to work on. The good runs of daddy Long Legs and Wrote bode well, and the Colm O'Donoghue's post race quote leads one to believe every horse there is ready to run for their lives: "We're here to win". 2/1 on So You Think is just too big imo.

Elsewhere, I'm really looking forward to the clash of Cirrus Des Aigles and St Nicholas Abbey, while I'll be keeping an eye on the other Sole Power and Await the Dawn as well. There were many last year who believed Await The Dawn was Ballydoyle's best older horse, if that's the case he's a big price at 10/1


€20 win So You Think @ 2/1 (Paddy Power)

- €20

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

So You Think disappointing and not for the first time, looked really one paced. Joseph said the surface did not suit. I'm amazed they persist with the tactics of racing handy and going for home quite early, given that his best performance came when Seamie Heffernan held on to him for as long as he could before the horse showed a turn of foot which has been missing in all his other races for Ballydoyle.

Thankfully the Cirrus Des Aigles - St Nicholas Abbey duel lived up to my expectations in what was undoubtedly the race of the day.

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Fury went close at Doncaster last time out and is only a pound higher in the weights now. The cut in the ground should help his cause and he should once again go close.

Fury
€10 e/w @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4, 1-2-3-4)


- €40

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Fury ran a good race in second but he may well have won with a better ride.

+ €25


- €15


All eyes were on Nephrite and Excelebration at the Curragh today. The former was disappointing, having travelled well he emptied rapidly in the final furlong. He looked a non stayer to me but it could well be that he was only half cooked. A combination of both possibly. Excelebration did what was expected of him with ease. All the top mile races will surely be on his agenda this year.

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Unaccompanied should be odds on tomorrow at Navan imo. She handles cut in the ground and bypassed Punchestown to come here instead. She was very impressive on the flat at the Curragh last year and I think she'll have too much class for her opposition tomorrow.

5.35 Navan
Unaccompanied
€20 win @ 5/4 (Boylesports)

- €35

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Good performance from Unaccompanied. For a moment turning in I thought she was in trouble but Pat Smullen always looked confident and she could be one to follow over the coming months.

+ €45


+ €10

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

I've posted on the 1000 Guineas thread about Jim Bolger's recent record in the Guineas at Newmarket and it's quite exceptional. Bolger's horses have been fitter than most for Newmarket in recent years and that counts for a lot this early in the season. His Alla Speranza is proven on soft ground and I think she could make her odds of 66/1 look silly.

1000 Guineas
Alla Speranza
€5 e/w @ 66/1 (Boylesports)


€0

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Fury is worth another chance in the first at Newmarket tomorrow. He bumped into a well handicapped horse last time and I thought may have won with a better ride. He's gone up in the weights since but he'll handle the ground and will be fitter than most ahving had two runs already this season.

Newmarket 2.00
Fury
€10 e/w @ 5/1 (Boylesports)


- €20

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Fury is worth another chance in the first at Newmarket tomorrow. He bumped into a well handicapped horse last time and I thought may have won with a better ride. He's gone up in the weights since but he'll handle the ground and will be fitter than most ahving had two runs already this season.

Newmarket 2.00
Fury
€10 e/w @ 5/1 (Boylesports)


- €20

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

Fury really has been consistent this term, although he didn't travel today as he can.

+ €22.50


+ €2.50

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

William Hill are bizarrely pricing up Born To Sea as follows:

To win 10/1
2 place insurebet 9/1
3 place insurebet 9/1

John Oxx has always mainatained he has plenty of his brother's ability and his strike rate in England is exceptional. The way he went about his debut win was really eye catching although he didn't beat much. The mere fact that he started off in a Listed race could tell its own story.

2000 Guineas
3 Place Insurebet (William Hill)
Born To Sea

€10 win @ 9/1


- €7.50

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

I've always maintained that MAYBE was the Ballydoyle 3yo to follow this year. Camelot's win there shows the well-being of the Ballydoyle horses, although Power ran a poor race for whatever reason. Maybe looked like a superstar last season and I much preferred her at similar odds to Camelot. Can she make it a memorable double for all at Ballydoyle?

1000 Guineas
Maybe
€20 win @ 6/4 (William Hill)


- €27.50

[Posts: 3565Joined: 08 Jul 2009, 22:10Location: Wexford]

This is not a flat bet but Knockara Beau must have a huge chance in the first at Haydock. I thought connections missed a trick bypassing the Pertemps at this year's festival considering he was well weighted compared to 2011 when he was 4th. They instead ran him in the Gold Cup where he was a very respectable 6th. Missed the 16/1 but 14/1 is still a very generous price imo.

2.00 Haydock
Knockara Beau
€5 e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)


- €37.50