Nick Mordin observations over past several weeks on various runners:
http://www.nickmordin.com/usa.htm
including:
(Apr 3) >>…Orb has more than earned his place in the Kentucky Derby line up. But my feeling is that Itsmyluckyday will turn this form around in the big race….<<<
and
(Apr 16) >>…If Overanalyze does fail to stay the ten furlongs of the Kentucky Derby it’s still possible the winner of the big race may come from the Arkansas Derby. This is because the runner up FRAC DADDY (27-pace adjusted 34) is headed for Churchill Downs and he seems a more likely stayer.
I’ve mentioned Frac Daddy before, noting how he’s got worked up in the preliminaries and shown a tendency to hang towards the running rail. He showed neither of those tendencies here and has probably benefited from having had two previous runs this season.
Frac Daddy stayed on well here to take second. The winner cut across him slightly as he was trying to go for a gap. But he got rolling again soon after so I think the stewards were right to quickly dismiss the trainer’s objection. However the way Frac Daddy was starting to get away from the rest of the field in the last half furlong in a race not run to suit him was meritorious. Off a stronger early pace and over an extra furlong in the Kentucky Derby I think he has a fair chance of winning – certainly a bigger chance than the bookie’s current odds of 50-1 suggest. <<<