2000 guineas 2012

[Posts: 12293Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Careful HGM, understand you've laid the horse, but "music to my ears" might sound as though you're wishing injury on a horse. Not that nice for those on here who've backed Most Improved either.

Anyone know why the betfair market is suspended at the moment?

Stop trying to be the forum cop Ginger......when in 5 years of posting have I wished harm to any horse?......you are completely out of order.

Stop trying to make a mountain out of a mole hill HGM.

I said "music to my ears might sound as though you're wishing injury on a horse", NOT that you "are wishing injury on a horse". Just think you could have put it better than (or greeted the news better than)...

"Music to my ears "

I also went on to say "Am sure HGM didn't mean how it sounded".

To answer your question HGM, I've never heard you wish any harm on a horse, which is why I was surprised at this tactless comment.

Can assure you HGM no offence was meant by my comment.

[Posts: 40Joined: 08 Aug 2009, 04:21]

I think people are on the wrong AOB horse for this - Power fits the Guineas profile way more than Camelot. He was somewhat unlucky to be beaten by Parish Hall (who looks like he'll appreciate the Derby more than this), and he should be there or thereabouts.

Of the rest, I'll certainly consider the aforementioned Parish Hall, and I think French Fifteen might be a contender.

But since Newmarket is the place where my bets go to die, be careful!

I quite like Power myself, the draw killed him in the Dewhurst. It's difficult to gauge where he is at in terms of fitness, training on etc though. Maybe an Irish Guineas could suit more at this stage...

Born To Sea has an okay profile, I think the Leopardstown race will leave enough question marks about him for the public to leave him relatively alone in the market, even with the Sea The Stars factor (hopefully anyway!)

[Posts: 12293Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

Looking at the prices right now, the "value" horses (imo) seem to be:

Trumpet Major @ 12/1 (and 5/2 the place)
Power @ 14/1 (under-rated just because he's second string)
Paris Hall @ 21/1 (will he run?)
Casper Netcher @ 29/1 (real chance if (big IF) he stays)
Hermival @ 31/1 (behind Abtaal and French Fifteen, but less exposed)
And perhaps best of all...
Mandean @ 59/1 (Already a winner of a Group 1 @ 1m2f on soft ground, now with Godolphin, IF it came up a real test of stamina could surprise a few)

I'd say Mandean and Trumpet Major are the best value bets.

[Posts: 1861Joined: 25 Jul 2011, 05:04]

Richard Hannon warned there may not be much between his 2 runners but I'd be very surprised if either proved anywhere near good enough.

Camelot has yet to prove on the track he's an outstanding colt.
The Racing Post Trophy is mainly contested by slower types than win Guineas. As impressive as he was I doubt if the form is anything special but to be fair he could be.

Must be said that once Top Offer took command in his maiden those behind weren't given a hard race. He's the hard one to work out here he looked good and could be anything.

Beyond those 2 you start to struggle and that makes me wonder if the French can win this.

Abtaal is highly regarded and would be much shorter were he UK trained.

I saw nothing last season to suggest UK 2 year olds were anything more than an ordinary lot so I'm with the froggies on this one.

Abtaal

[Posts: 697Joined: 24 Apr 2008, 02:19Location: durham]

if the video of the prix djebel is anything to go by then the french aren't anything special.

I think born to sea will struggle to get the trip in this ground. his trainer suggested as much (interview in the racing post today)

[Posts: 5238Joined: 31 Aug 2007, 23:42Location: derby]

Abtaal is a very early foal as well, and I always reckon a month or two makes a big difference when horses are this young. But he's not entered in any races over 8f and I'm wondering if more of a staying type will win if the ground is on the soft side. The Coolmore horses are all entered for everything but Parish Hall is entered for 8/10/12 f races and is another early foal. Not having looked at the race at all till yesterday I was surprised to see Top Offer priced at 6/1, because he ticked every box but then I realised he'd only won a cl4 race; however, I haven't seen the manner of his victory. Power is entered in a 6f race later in the year, so I can't see him staying [famous last words].

[Posts: 1058Joined: 25 Mar 2011, 11:32Location: Catterick, N Yorkshire]

Moe: Sadly Parish Hall's trainer has stated that he wont run if the ground has soft in it and that looks a definite!

Maybe a blessing in disguise for the Derby

[Posts: 298Joined: 15 Jan 2009, 21:41]

Soumillion on Abtaal.

Fingers crossed for Moore on Power.

They're my two against the field, and I'll probably do a little reverse forecast too.

[Posts: 3976Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Sacramento,CA.]

Oxx never sends a horse over unless he thinks he has a chance. Good each way bet.

[Posts: 1058Joined: 25 Mar 2011, 11:32Location: Catterick, N Yorkshire]

As expected Parish Hall misses out to due ground conditions.

AOB only sending Camelot and Power (Ryan Moore indeed rides).

With the weather the way it is who knows how many will actually turn up! Hopefully this bad weather will clear up well before the Derby!!

[Posts: 1551Joined: 04 Mar 2010, 10:15Location: Huddersfield]

Have Power, Born to Sea and Abtaal against the field.

[Posts: 433Joined: 02 May 2011, 22:29]

I am hoping for Born to Sea or Camelot but both have big question marks. The only thing that might help Camelot, who has genetics against him as a Montjeu, is the soft ground will make it more of a stamina test than it ordinarily would be. This will probably have a detrimental effect on an Invincible Spirit cold, but he has plenty of stamina on the distaff side. I think there is something romantic about Urban Sea's last foal winning a classic so he is my top pick.

Fingers crossed!

[Posts: 5238Joined: 31 Aug 2007, 23:42Location: derby]

Have just seen that Abtaal is now entered in a 10f race later in the year, which bodes well for him staying on the ground tomorrow. Power, however, is not only entered in a 6f race but a 5f one, so surely he won't stay 8f on soft?