*******2012 Epsom Derby Official Thread*********

[Posts: 1673Joined: 16 Jun 2009, 00:36]

He should go for a derby trail being a Montjeau no chance at 2000 guineas.

And well done on pick as well BB i think he be a very good horse at 1m2 1m4 next year.

[Posts: 1673Joined: 16 Jun 2009, 00:36]

Hope CAMELOT wins on saturday as along with Imperial Monarch they are my derby horses.

[Posts: 1673Joined: 16 Jun 2009, 00:36]

Very good by Camelot all i say is don't go for the guineas like SNA a derby trail then Epsom way to go it is.

[Posts: 1569Joined: 04 Mar 2010, 10:15Location: Huddersfield]

Whilst price for Camelot is gone, time to tuck into the others:

Imperial Monarch, Ballydoyle 2yo Colt out of Galileo, ran once, won once over 8f on Soft at Curragh - 25/1
Parish Hall, Won Dewhurst, owned by Sheikh Mohamed, out of champion 2yo Teoflio - 20/1
Top Offer, won maiden impressively over 7f at Newbury, out of Dansili, Juddmonte owned, trained by Roger Charlton, closely related to Harbinger - 25/1
David Livingston, Ballydoyle horse, won Beresford Stakes, 8f Heavy, Galileo (Beresford previous winners, St Nicholas Abbey, Sea The Stars, Casamento), - 33/1
Apollo, another Ballydoyle, won decent maiden ahead of decent horse, Galileo, won 7f debut - 33/1
Akheed Mofeed, John Oxx horse, owned by Jaber Abdullah. Scopey 2yo, son of Dubawi. Highly respected 25/1

[Posts: 1673Joined: 16 Jun 2009, 00:36]

Any thoughts on Mandaen i not seen the video yet but reports say though he was green was impressive as well.

Also do you guys see any horses being supplemented for derby to.

[Posts: 313Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Chelmsford]

Firstly may I wish you all a happy and a prosperous new year.

I have been through the Derby entries and looked at the antepost markets and after my own breeding analysis and what has been acheived as 2 year olds, I think the winner is most likely to come from the following:

Camelot: Winner of the Racing Post Trophy, trained by Aiden O'Brien. Possibly could also win the 2000 Guineas on the way to the Derby. He has both a lot of high class stamina influence and high class speed influence. The Racing Post Trophy win seems to have been acheived against other horses whose breeding suggests to me that at 3 yrs old they are more likely to be 8f to 10f horses so in my opinion he had no real stamina challenge in that race. Indeed he might find the Derby difficult because of his strong speed influences but his class could carry him through. He might get wound up in the preliminaries.

Parish Hall: Winner of the Dewhurst trained by Jim Bolger. Most likely route to the Derby will be to contest the 2000 Guineas but to me he is not bred like a 3 year old who would win the Guineas, also the RPR acheived when winning the Dewhurst was below 120. When that happens the Dewhurst winner seems unlikely to go on to win the 2000 Guineas. He appears in my analysis as a 12f plus animal, a bit like Sir Percy, but with Sadlers Wells duplications might be a 10f to 12f colt. However, will Jim Bolger actually send him to the Derby. It must be a question because of his actions in the run up to when New Approach won the race.

Mandaean: Winner of the 10f Group 1 in France when trained by Andre Fabre but has now been transferred to be trained for a top class middle distance campaign by Mahmood Al Zarooni. I think he has the right breeding to win the Derby but currently has no entry. I assume he will be entered in March. Most likely route will be a Derby trial.

Swedish Sailor: A good Yarmouth maiden winner trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni, has the breeding required but again no entry and may be treated as second fiddle to Mandaean. Probable route a Derby trial.

Mighty Ambition: A Newbury maiden winner who in my opinion has a good balance of stamina and speed trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni and holds a Derby entry. There are some questions as to whether he is more likely a 10f 3 year old rather than a 10f to 12f 3 year old.
However from his maiden others have gone on to win next time out. I have backed him (small stake) at big prices on Betfair but after the news of Mandaean being trained now by Al Zarooni his price has drifted so I can only assume that the Godolphin order is Mandaean first and then the rest. I guess he will go to a trial and if good enough then the Derby.

It is now only the last day of 2011 and there is 5 months to go. I am hoping that these colts train on without mishap and get there on the day. In my opinion they are the ones that have the breeding attributes required and have done the right things as 2 year olds.

[Posts: 1058Joined: 25 Mar 2011, 11:32Location: Catterick, N Yorkshire]

Having backed Parish Hall at nice prices for the Derby I have been forced to have a small win bet on him for the Guineas too just in case!

I have also taken 66s about him winning the Guines/Derby! Highly unlikely but worth a tenner just in case

[Posts: 313Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Chelmsford]

Out of those in my new year post above I have now gone well off Mighty Ambition but of the other four I like most of all Swedish Sailor.

The only problem is each time he has been entered at the 5 day stage for a race when it gets to the 2 day entries he is taken out. He is now entered for the Newmarket Stakes on Saturday, I reckon if he gets taken out again then its the Lingfield Derby trial for him, unless Mandaean uses the Guineas and possibly the Irish Guineas which he was entered into late, as trials, and then Swedish Sailor could go to the Dante instead of Mandaean.

The trainer has said lately that Swedish Sailor is the "best in his yard" Unfortunately those words often get said by trainers in the same way jockeys are notorious for using the words "he's the best I have ever sat on" so I have to be a bit wary of that.

[Posts: 4052Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Sacramento,CA.]

Are there any other Derby threads?

[Posts: 4052Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Sacramento,CA.]

When Oxx says he does not know how good his horses is you had better get something on.Beacuse if he does not know how good he was and is still willing to travel he must be good.

[Posts: 313Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Chelmsford]

So after what we saw today at Newmarket can Camelot win the 2nd race in the triple crown?

I think itis quite likely, but I still like Swedish Sailor even if he has been taken out once again from a race at the 2 day entry stage for about the 4th time in the last 2 weeks.

[Posts: 829Joined: 22 Sep 2011, 23:12Location: North Wales]

I still want to see Mandaean. He's the one I've been looking forward to and the one I'm most excited about. He'll be in the Dante and I hope the proper Godolphin trainer has him good and ready.

Ernest Hemingway is one I'd like to make place claims for as well. As yet unmentioned by anyone one here, he's won a maiden on the all weather(albeit a pretty poor looking one), he won it easily, and he seems pretty well bred for a Derby contender. He could well sneak in as a surprise package to run into a place.

Camelot looks the obvious contender, but there has to be value out there!

[Posts: 1861Joined: 25 Jul 2011, 05:04]

There is he's called Fencing...cracking trial for or horse who is being trained with other things in mind.