Going allowances

[Posts: 491Joined: 26 May 2009, 19:28Location: Swindon]

Being a Raceform Interactive user and being a speed handicapper I sometimes compare the going allowances assessed by Dave Bellingham of Raceform against Dave Edwards of the Racing Post and I wish I hadn’t as the results depressed me.

Turf going allowance table:
Firm +0.55 to +0.63
Good/firm +0.20 to +0.53
Good -0.25 to +0.18
Good/soft -0.55 to -0.28
Soft -1.00 to -0.58
Heavy -1.58 to -1.03

AW going allowance table:
Fast +0.50
Standard/fast +0.18 to +0.40
Standard -0.15 to +0.15
Standard/slow -0.48 to -0.18
Slow -0.70 to -0.50

I looked at the Carlisle meeting on the 4th June 2012; the official going was good/firm with firm patches.

Dave Edwards assessed the going for the first 4 races as good and he gave the going allowance as +0.14s/f per furlong and the last 4 races on the card as good/firm and the going allowance as +0.27s/f.
Dave Bellingham assessed the going for the first 4 races at +0.13s/f which was good, they agreed here and then it went horribly wrong he assessed the last 4 races at 0.00s/f, my reaction was WTF!!!!

The last 4 races the difference was 27lbs so I sent an email to Raceform asking how Dave Bellingham assessed the last 4 races as 0.00s/f, for the record I made the going allowances for the last 4 races to be +0.30s/f per furlong.

My top rated 2yo Penny’s Picnic ran at Maison-Laffitte on the 8th June 2012 and after the meeting I quickly assessed the going allowance on the day to be -0.34s/f.
The official going on the day was changed after the first race from Good to Good/Soft and my going allowance of -0.34s/f agreed with this (see table above).

How on earth Dave Edwards came up with the going allowance of only 0.00s/f is beyond my reckoning, because of Penny’s Picnic last run at Chantilly he awarded the horse his highest speed figure of 98 and now after the horse has just won a listed race he only awards a figure of only 20, if you subtract the weight-for-age allowance of 21lbs he would not have received a speed figure at all.

Under the Racing Post umbrella you have Dave Edwards, Mark Nelson and Dave Bellingham, surely between them they can come up with going allowances that do not fall in the realms of fiction, or am I expecting too much.

[Posts: 3709Joined: 19 Nov 2002, 14:40Location: Fife]

TBB

I think you have to throw in the matter of movement of rails into this equation. At Hamilton in particular the rails are moved significantly between meetings resulting in a difference of 60-70 yards in distance. On this basis the 'going allowance' becomes a 'course state allowance' covering layout as well as going.

I did speed figures for jump racing for a couple of seasons and soon realised what a significant effect course configuration had on daily allowances.

By the way, keep up your contributions on race times and speed figures, you do an excellent job.

Rob

[Posts: 12578Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

TBB,

Do you know if the two Daves both take in to consideration wind speed and direction? If one does and the other doesn't it could make a big difference if it was a windy day.

Dave Bellingham is always in the Raceform team in our West Berkshire Racing Club Quiz (January). So TBB, (if you can wait) is there a particular question you'd like me to ask? As long as it is not about a particular race.

[Posts: 491Joined: 26 May 2009, 19:28Location: Swindon]

TBB,
Do you know if the two Daves both take in to consideration wind speed and direction? If one does and the other doesn't it could make a big difference if it was a windy day.

Taking into account wind speed always makes me chuckle, I would have thought that phases of the Moon would be more significant

I have spent so much time of this subject recently and have search the internet for any tutorial on "Track Variants" and "Going Allowances" etc. and came up empty.

When assessing the going allowance I use the old method the Raceform private handicapper used before the days of computers where you turned the seconds outside standard into a lbs figure i.e. by multiplying by 100 divided by the race distance "furlongs", then subtract the winners rating from 100, then you subtract the furlong lbs figure from the winners corrected rating to obtain a going allowance, then the hard work assessing the days going allowance begins.

I know that It is not an exact science working out going allowances, I just like the boys at the Racing Post to work from the same hymn sheet, having three different sets of going allowances pisses me off.

[Posts: 12578Joined: 22 Dec 2007, 19:24]

TBB,
Do you know if the two Daves both take in to consideration wind speed and direction? If one does and the other doesn't it could make a big difference if it was a windy day.

Taking into account wind speed always makes me chuckle, I would have thought that phases of the Moon would be more significant

So you don't think a significant tailwind can make times faster TBB? If so am amazed.

Do you believe you could run just as fast in to a strong headwind as you would away from a strong tailwind?

Sorry TBB, but TBH, if speed ratings don't take wind speed and direction in to account then their figures are flawed in such circumstances.

[Posts: 491Joined: 26 May 2009, 19:28Location: Swindon]

The best example of wind direction was in last years 1000 Guineas won by Blue Bunting, where they had a strong wind blowing head on into their faces, I just tweaked the going allowance to correct this.

You have the same problem when horses encounter heavy going, how far is it slowing the horses up.

If you assessed the going on the day as -1.25s/f and then find that 6 horses in a handicap have suddenly improved 10lbs on their ratings that they have never achieved before, you might have to adjust the going to -1.00s/f too correct this anomaly.

That why the handicappers in the USA like Dirt racing, true run races making it easy to calculate going allowances

[Posts: 4053Joined: 03 Feb 2006, 11:39Location: Sacramento,CA.]

With all the information provided in the Daily Racing Form I am amazed how it is worth while having the races run at all.The outcome should be clear from the information provided in the newspaper.Where can one go wrong? There must be some vital information missing.Could it be that the instructions to the jockey is the key missing factor?In India Richard Hughes was penalised for not following the instructions of the trainer.Surely such information should be posted on the various screens before the race.Save a lot of punter's money it would.

[Posts: 4183Joined: 20 Jan 2006, 11:28Location: The Ainsty of York]

Taking into account wind speed always makes me chuckle, I would have thought that phases of the Moon would be more significant

I have spent so much time of this subject recently and have search the internet for any tutorial on "Track Variants" and "Going Allowances" etc. and came up empty.

This thread may be of interest TBB; with regard to wind, the posts from Prufrock in particular

http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r ... 1778&hilit

[Posts: 139Joined: 03 Oct 2005, 11:30Location: Dartford,Kent]

I think you will find a tutorial on another forum,hope I can put this up as it is related to racing.

http://www.ohracing.net/forum/

this one will take you to it

http://www.ohracing.net/forum/f362/

have fun

[Posts: 4417Joined: 14 Mar 2006, 11:35Location: Doha, Qatar and Co.Clare, Ireland.]

Given that fairly limited and exposed campaigners such as Tartan Gigha, Madam Macie and Oratory ran such comparatively fast times on the round course at Carlisle that day, I'd say your going assessment is much closer to the truth BB.

Tartan Gigha - Fastest of 21 races over the trip since 2005
Madam Macie and Oratory - 6th and 7th fastest times respectively over that trip since 2005 (89 races).

As for French going reports and race distances......

[Posts: 491Joined: 26 May 2009, 19:28Location: Swindon]

Given that fairly limited and exposed campaigners such as Tartan Gigha, Madam Macie and Oratory ran such comparatively fast times on the round course at Carlisle that day, I'd say your going assessment is much closer to the truth BB.

Looking again at the going allowance issue I had with Maison-Laffitte, I adjusted the going allowance for the first 3 races which were sprints to -0.25s/f and left the rest of the meeting "the Routes" at 0.00s/f because if I had made the going allowance for the whole meeting -0.25s/f, Lady Hartwood in the last race would have ended up with a speed rating of 100, she is not that good, instead she ends up with a rating of only 79.

The official going returned for Maison-Laffitte on the 8th June should have been recorded as good going, hence the -0.25s/f I applied, because if the going had been any slower like -0.28s/f the going would have then changed to good to soft.

I am glad that you agreed with me about the Carlisle going allowance returned by Raceform, I am not expecting a reply from Raceform to my email query about this issue

[Posts: 172Joined: 08 Jul 2008, 02:36]

Blues Brother............I know you put an awful lot of work and thought into your speed figs so I wonder if you have any thoughts on a method i'm using for 'allowances'

Basically I work out my speed ratings - I then compare the rating to the official rating of the winner (I've had periods of doing this weight adjusted but now I'm doing it just on the OR)

so I might end up with

SF 80 - OR 84 = slow 4
SF 70 - OR 76 = slow 6

etc

I then take the average of the fastest 3 races at the meeting as my allowance..............I think this incorporates going, class, wind, whatever...........anything that slows the horses down or speeds them up is reflected in the allowance because it's directly related to the class of horse in each race

ps I only do ratings for the AW.......

[Posts: 491Joined: 26 May 2009, 19:28Location: Swindon]

@ slowly Away

I like your method and I can see that it would work well on the all weather, I might even try it out on the turf to see how it fares on heavy going etc.

I find that I can come up with an accurate going assessment for the all weather but it gets very difficult when horses encounter soft/heavy going on the turf.

Unlike the North American tracks, most of the time in Europe we do not get true run races, they are mostly tactical affairs, and last season I awarded a speed rating of only 45 for a group 1 contest in France, I have awarded higher ratings in class 7 races at Wolverhampton on a Saturday night.

Even the professionals cannot agree most of the time what the going allowance should be, so what hope have us mere mortals got