I made the point earlier that Ginger agrees with me precisely because of his multi selections in a given race.
He is hedging against the possibility that there may be hidden ability among the less fancied runners. This is the nervous action of someone who clearly has reason to believe that all is not as straightforward as it may seem. He accepts that horses may not have shown their true worth in recent races.
Some years ago I trialled a similar method based on variable stakes on two or perhaps three runners in a race. It failed because frequently all three were beaten by some unconsidered animal. It is a cop out and if anything confuses the whole business of selection.
Don’t be an idiot all your life Woolfie.
If you look at the Scarborough Stakes today: I suppose if Medicean Man wins you’ll think connections have been deliberately discuising his true ability on recent starts; having been 9th of 17 and 5th of 10? Around 3 1/2 lengths behind Justineo last time.
It would not be anything to do with the horse needing to be held up off a stiffer 5f/strong pace then? And with almost every runner in today’s race a prominent runner is likely to get it. Nothing to do with the trainer being in far better form than at any other point this season then? With 4 wins in his last 7 starts compared to a season’s strike rate of 9.5%.
Wish I had worked out the race earlier, as could only get 6/1. Now, I have
not
backed Medicean Man because "I think it will win", I have backed it because I believe it has around an 18% (fair 9/2) chance, value to win.
I’ve also backed rank outsider Swan Song. Not because I think her ability has been "hidden" Woolfie, but because she seems to be improving. Now last time out was at Epsom, so there is a bit of a question mark about that run. But the 3rd at Ascot on penultimate start was an improvement too. If (big IF) the rate of progression is maintained would put her right in the mix. She’s exceptionally well bred, by Green Desert out of Lochsong who also unusually improved as an older horse. Stable also in good form. Swan Song is a prominent runner which is a bit of a negative considering the pace may be too strong today. But she is around 25/1 on the machine not 2/1. I make her around a fair 14/1 shot.
I’ve saved on Justineo @ 100/30, third at Goodwood probably the best form in this and Roger Varian another in cracking form. It’s just she may not like being taken on, yet another front runner and possibly wouldn’t want any more rain. I think he has around a 26% chance (fair 11/4) at this point.
There’d be nothing wrong with me solely backing Medicean Man or only Swan Song (each way or win only). Would not back Justineo as a main bet now, because the ground may come against him. My preference is to back all three, with Justineo just a saver.
Best of luck with that, I know exactly your thinking, no more lectures please, I have tested these methods to destruction.
Staking in pennies or pounds, it’s not very appealing.
As to my method, I will not be putting them up just to counter you and Betlarge’s arguments, chances are you would call me just plain lucky whereas I have put the time in to consolidate a formula adding filters as it develops, rewriting sections based on results.