It confirms something else but we already knew that.
You see i’d said " apparently expected to win " but he doesn’t quote that and takes it out of context.
"Apparently" does not make any difference Mark, you still said "apparently expected to win". With the price being 3/1 you’d only need to win 1 in 4 at that price to break even. So apparently
not
expected to win. 
You keep on inferring it is a surprise when a horse gets beaten Mark, when it is in
fact
nothing of the sort. 
Value Is Everything